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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

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7 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

I think its done what its suppose to have done since i've been following it in early afternoon.

gfs.thumb.png.cd38f16b9e982c8f9c38f3667c35c294.png

yeah, i am looking for slight differences that might give us  a clue. above is the v7 for right now

 

and this is the pressure chart for 6pm..

 

airpressure.png

 

 

Circulation seems tighter right now on v7, western edge of it level with Lands End, and in the GFS the circulation is miles further west? Don't know if it's significant or not.

 

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1 minute ago, snowy36 said:

I like derek, there are some right ropy bbc weather forecasters . A lot of the local forecaster's seem to not know about the weather , u cant say that about Derek.

I just jumped on the andymusic anti derek bandwagon because I think someone should carry the can for this debacle .

No rational reason behind it but i think Behnaz deserves to be number one now.

Derek son , your time is up .

Dont hang around like Wenger , just go with your head held high .

 

 

  • Haha 3

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6 minutes ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

The core is rotating but the low isnt. The blob over france is stuck to the core. A sort of wrap around front. It will pull off towards atlantic overnight and be replaced with the low below ireland. This low is circulating as seen from sat. Not sure if that blob will migraemte north but might expand.

So are you saying the precipitation in the English Channel will not move over our area as currently modeled by Arpege ?

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3 minutes ago, Baldy Snowman said:

gfs.thumb.png.cd38f16b9e982c8f9c38f3667c35c294.png

yeah, i am looking for slight differences that might give us  a clue. above is the v7 for right now

 

and this is the pressure chart for 6pm..

 

airpressure.png

 

 

Circulation seems tighter right now on v7, western edge of it level with Lands End, and in the GFS the circulation is miles further west? Don't know if it's significant or not.

 

Well the bbc says no to it and yet the euo Hi-Res  models says yes and the met says yes, so we'll see who wins the battle.

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2 minutes ago, Baldy Snowman said:

gfs.thumb.png.cd38f16b9e982c8f9c38f3667c35c294.png

yeah, i am looking for slight differences that might give us  a clue. above is the v7 for right now

 

and this is the pressure chart for 6pm..

 

airpressure.png

 

 

Circulation seems tighter right now on v7, western edge of it level with Lands End, and in the GFS the circulation is miles further west? Don't know if it's significant or not.

 

Your best looking on xcweather for live pressure. Gfs is rarely right. Its still deeper than gfs states on that image. Also there are 3 lows in atlantic in triangle formation 

EC5F7745-77EE-4592-9D81-0507B1C05162.thumb.png.07eb6c28735f806421e4c385a2162022.png

First is Emma, second touching spain coast third west if france

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Just now, Phil Barkin said:

So are you saying the precipitation in the English Channel will not move over our area as currently modeled by Arpege ?

Correct different low

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1 minute ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

Correct different low

Im sorry Strat i have no idea what u talking about!!!!  The Euro model says the snow comes at around 6ish.

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1 minute ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

The low over channel moves before another one comes in and this is what tour seeing on aperge

what are your thoughts on what is gonna happen?

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Just now, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

The low over channel moves before another one comes in and this is what tour seeing on aperge

So are you in agreement with the short range models that show a period of heavy snow for SE Wales tomorrow morning? 

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9 minutes ago, Phil Barkin said:

Arpege has the system in the channel covering all of South Wales between 3 and 7 in the morning, lets just hope its still cold enough to fall as snow, even Swansea gets in on the action 

No no no no no no no .

Time is up .

Winter 17/18 pack your bags and go.

Dont turn around now , just go .

I will not be seduced by a lying cheating rat of a weather system yet again.

 

9-10 degrees mid week wooooohoooooo 🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪

 

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2 minutes ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

The low over channel moves before another one comes in and this is what tour seeing on aperge

Right I see what you mean thanks :)

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Just now, JamesL said:

So are you in agreement with the short range models that show a period of heavy snow for SE Wales tomorrow morning? 

Not sure i believe models currently. Been wrong of late. But there are 3 lows currently in atlantic.

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1 minute ago, Seasonal weather required said:

No no no no no no no .

Time is up .

Winter 17/18 pack your bags and go.

Dont turn around now , just go .

I will not be seduced by a lying cheating rat of a weather system yet again.

 

9-10 degrees mid week wooooohoooooo 🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪

 

I cant see how its going to get that high this week!!!

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1 minute ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

Not sure i believe models currently. Been wrong of late. But there are 3 lows currently in atlantic.

I think u on the wind-up myself. 

  • Like 1

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5 minutes ago, Scarlet_Snow said:

Thanks Derek, rub it in with a picture of Hendy, just up the road with no snow. 

Did he ?

Missed that !

Wow , now I am justifiably anti Derek.

Andy , your right , he must be sacked .

Thats so harsh and crosses a line , a red line in fact .

No amber written warning just sack him - red card !! Off you TROT !!

 

 

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scenes from Brynmawr, very similar to here...

 

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Just now, snowy36 said:

I cant see how its going to get that high this week!!!

especially after that beeb forecast earlier this week, 10pm Wednesday night i think it was, which said any mild is gonna get chilled by the beast, and even southerlies and westerlies from these slack lows will produce snow in the days/weeks to come

 

couldn't believe that forecast. it was amazing

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Just now, Seasonal weather required said:

Did he ?

Missed that !

Wow , now I am justifiably anti Derek.

Andy , your right , he must be sacked .

Thats so harsh and crosses a line , a red line in fact .

No amber written warning just sack him - red card !! Off you TROT !!

 

 

Yes!! Halfway through just after he mentioned somewhere had 50cm of level snow haha. 

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2 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

I cant see how its going to get that high this week!!!

I just watched Chris Fawkes doing the sporting fixture forecast - showed Cardiff up to 10 degrees on Thursday .

Normally I’d be pretty sad to see this ,if it was after an event ,though this time I will be glad when this pathetic minor mess is washed away .😃😃😃😃😃

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Just now, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

Go here

https://en.sat24.com/en

emma is still where she been all day but is just front now. To her south west is small low centre and third out in atlantic.

all three will end up where emma is now

Go have a look at will it rain on the Met Office web site, i have seen nothing to support u idea/views.

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Just now, snowy36 said:

Go have a look at will it rain on the Met Office web site, i have seen nothing to support u idea/views.

Ok fine stay up all night and verify what im saying then.

  • Haha 1

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8 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

I think u on the wind-up myself. 

he is right though. this could go any way imho. these lows are like circling tigers, wanting to roar their white rage on us, or circling feline cats, wanting to snuggle up to us, and dump their chilly, rainy vomit all over us. i dont think ANY of the forecasters have a good idea about the immediate future, simply cos they are working with models that cant handle the beast. gonna be fun to watch, even if it does go mild later.

 

edit. lol, it changed felinecats to feline cats. , double edit - it changed that too. i think you know what word I posted?

Edited by Baldy Snowman

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