Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Loadsa2000]

1 minute ago, snowy36 said:

Not getting this far over.

it is just checked flood warn site and it should arrive here 12 ish

[Jen Beachcomber]

54 minutes ago, snowblow said:

First time I've felt compelled to post in 9+ winters of lurking. 

Living in Cardiff, 2010 was the best I can remember, but it came right out of the blue.

Hopefully we're on the brink of something special (but safe). 

Best of luck to everyone tomorrow and thanks for the entertainment over the years. 

Dear Mr Snowblow, I hope the profile pic you've posted is not sign of 'the things to come' and were are all going to get our 'bits' iced as a result? 

Yours Sincerely Beachcomber Jen x

[snowy36]

Just now, Loadsa2000 said:

it is just checked flood warn site and it should arrive here 12 ish

Have a look at the met office will it rain and it will not get anywhere near us. 

[RhysWales]

2 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

That’s only if the precip maintained same intensity. Will likely all but die by time it moves to us, especially with the approaching front. Doesn’t matter anyway, latest output great for snow for next 48 hours or so ❄️ 

Too right! Said at the beginning of the week as long as tomorrow/ Friday keeps it together anything before is a bonus! Can't wait! 

[Bartlett High]

3 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

Bin What !!!!!

This.

[snowy36]

Just now, bartlett high said:

This.

What is it, to me it looks like its showing the snow we had today!!

[Loadsa2000]

3 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

Have a look at the met office will it rain and it will not get anywhere near us. 

will have to wait and see 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Is it true everything has moved eastwards and the SE is going to cop it all?

[Jackfrost]

1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Is it true everything has moved eastwards and the SE is going to cop it all?

Yes (slightly) and no.

Edited February 28, 2018 by Jackfrost

[JamesL]

1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Is it true everything has moved eastwards and the SE is going to cop it all?

Yep!! Every single last bit of it. We are going to miss it all! ????

I'm sure you're trolling Jay lol 

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, Jackfrost said:

Yes (slightly) and no.

Ah ok mate, they seem to be hoping on the one weather model to get it right lmao typical. Don't they realise the met office are the experts.

[KidCarm]

I know these apps are useless but how good does this look...

 

[andymusic]

be on the look out for these critters shortly moving to a council house near you

[PompeyFC]

The GFS and Hirlam have moved it slightly east. Reports on model thread suggest GFS is already wrong with wind direction at T3 over SE. Looks to me like there are 2 waves. Tomorrow avo and overnight then Friday afternoon onwards. Best not correct east. Want westward correction so we all get in on the proper action

Edited February 28, 2018 by PompeyFC

[JamesL]

Interesting to see that the Met Office must be using the ECM data to generate their forecasts. 

Temps are now not due to rise above 2c out till Tuesday with more snow forecast on Sunday here in Aberdare. 

[Jackfrost]

4 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Ah ok mate, they seem to be hoping on the one weather model to get it right lmao typical. Don't they realise the met office are the experts.

There's a lot of wishful thinking involved in situations like this. There has been a slight eastwards shift this evening but nowhere near enough to result in Southeast England copping it all, but perhaps with a little more eastwards spread of the snow. Southeast Wales is still the place to be though, along with Exmoor and Dartmoor.

This is now becoming a nowcasting event. Can't believe we've actually reached made it this far without mass emotional breakdowns!

Edited February 28, 2018 by Jackfrost

[bradymk]

1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Is it true everything has moved eastwards and the SE is going to cop it all?

Things have moved eastwards it seems yes but it does nothing to us. If anything it is an upgrade. It does mean areas east to us are likely to see more than originally expected that’s all.

remember eastern Ireland was where a lot of precipitation has been on the models up until now. So there was plenty of precipitation to west of us for an eastwards shift....

[LJ1224]

Don't think I've ever gone from exited optimism to crippling disappointment so fast in such short spaces of time in the last few days. Been quite a roller coaster. Never expected the showers we had today though so I'm still holding out hope.

[PompeyFC]

It does mean those of us on the western boundary will chp alot less though if it corrects eastwards. So Llanharan pencoed Bridgend will get alot less. It' a Nowcast job though. The low could move east or west 25 miles and make a massive difference. Fine margins

Edited February 28, 2018 by PompeyFC

[jessmum]

Wind is blowing a hoolie out there, will that affect anything? Will it bring showers across from the east?

[virtualsphere]

Still all to play for based on these snow depth charts from the higher res models up to 6pm Friday, with quite large differences showing, so don't be too concerned over any individual model / individual run - if you're not expecting much, keep an eye on the radar / window tomorrow and you never know...

[bradymk]

9 minutes ago, PompeyFC said:

It does mean those of us on the western boundary will chp alot less though if it corrects eastwards. So Llanharan pencoed Bridgend will get alot less. It' a Nowcast job though. The low could move east or west 25 miles and make a massive difference. Fine margins

Don’t worry that wouldnt be the case. The little corridor of less amount of precip in western areas is because of topography and not because of the positioning of the low. If low moves east slightly like it has then still shouldn’t be any difference for Bridgend llanharan etc. 

Edited February 28, 2018 by bradythemole

[bradymk]

2 minutes ago, jessmum said:

Wind is blowing a hoolie out there, will that affect anything? Will it bring showers across from the east?

No but it’s the wind that could cause some severe conditions tomorrow. Imagine heavy powdery snow and this strength wind, could be some big drifts.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, bradythemole said:

No but it’s the wind that could cause some severe conditions tomorrow. Imagine heavy powdery snow and this strength wind, could be some big drifts.

We should all get some sleep lol but I can't there's something saying stay awake and don't miss anything.

[PompeyFC]

Am on the wine so I can sleep later lol