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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

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Just now, wrexham1 said:

How much snow for Wrexham area? Anyone ?

Looks patchy tomorrow north powys and here,gathering tomorrow night into Friday though.

Flippin heck ECM keeps the cold going throughout 10 more days, jet has well and truly left us.

Recm1681.gif

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Meto still showing light snow all day for Cardiff (although low % probability throughout) but heavy snow high probability for late Thursday into Friday morning. I'll take that - just hope it comes off!

 

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27 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

VERY INTERESTING!

42BE74E3-B6FA-449D-861B-951310842052.png

HIRLAM is available to view here: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam.php

Shows perhaps more snow than forecast overnight tonight for central areas of Wales and then more snow towards western parts tomorrow evening and night - so perhaps less of a snow shield here in Carmarthenshire...

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8 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Higher risk for southern England and areas like London. (Doesn’t decrease risk here btw)

low isn’t being modelled correctly according to Chris who is very good. 

I think he's wrong because if they forecast just one snowflake to hit London then there would be a double Red warning out by now.:hi:

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Just need to keep an eye on the development of this low now and compare it to model forecasts. The models do not control the weather remember! But we are close now, almost there! 

Check the radar over France if you have time and compare it’s positioning to the models.

 

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19 minutes ago, WelshWanderer said:

It was snowing on and off almost all day in Neath where I work but at about 4.30pm an almost blizzard came in and it just kept snowing and it stuck fast.  When I arrived in Swansea (by train) snowing then and it has stuck in the city centre.  My work (Neath Port Talbot council) has already told all staff that we are closed from noon tomorrow and all day Friday. 

I've worked there for 11 years and that's the first time they have announced the building will be closed before the snow arrives!!  Can't wait...wonder if I'll even make it to work in the morning??? lol

At last a council with some sense......

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11 minutes ago, virtualsphere said:

HIRLAM is available to view here: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam.php

Shows perhaps more snow than forecast overnight tonight for central areas of Wales and then more snow towards western parts tomorrow evening and night - so perhaps less of a snow shield here in Carmarthenshire...

Great link:thanks!

Very reassuring...

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3 minutes ago, Icequeen said:

Don't know how reliable the source but interesting nonetheless

snowriskthursday.jpg

What about Friday?further ppn showing on charts

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21 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Looks patchy tomorrow north powys and here,gathering tomorrow night into Friday though.

Flippin heck ECM keeps the cold going throughout 10 more days, jet has well and truly left us.

Recm1681.gif

Whoop!

 

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I agree with that chart above. Snow starting light in South Wales tomorrow morning before picking up for rush hour lasting into the night. South Wales in the firing line again for more snow Friday, so an interesting 48 hours to come! 

Edited by Panayiotis
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Still nervous about tomorrow I’ll be honest. 

I know it’s high confidence now but seen so many go wrong!

excited but nervous ? can’t say it doesn’t look great though

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33 minutes ago, Stevetynant said:

Home from work?

I chickened out Rhys all stashed up with beer for the weekend and off work watching it happen for the next few days. Happy days have one on me ???

I just booked the Friday! Didn't want to tempt fate too much! Here's to hoping we get let out earlyish! 

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Well for the first time today i've dared to have a look at Will it Rain - Met Office ( i think its the best) and now i'm :yahoo::yahoo:

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15 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

What about Friday?further ppn showing on charts

Well if u look at the met office - will it rain  and i could believe those numbers. 

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Stalling front to return back south ?

Super Steve Murr seems to think so .

This would be similar to historic events also .

Wow could this really turn into that 3 day steak ? blizzard Andy foretold of ....

Could this be the one time where Andy the king of all rampers with so many of those cheeky low res charts is actually out ramped by the weather itself ?

 

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If we get a 3 day blizzard as Andy said I'll personally go up Pontypridd and buy him a pint lol

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For those that remember the 82 snow what was the lead up like to that? Do you guys think it will be similar? Really hoping to see something significant. Have been watching the forum and checking Twitter and forecasts like a hawk. 

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2 minutes ago, Seasonal weather required said:

Stalling front to return back south ?

Super Steve Murr seems to think so .

This would be similar to historic events also .

Wow could this really turn into that 3 day steak ? blizzard Andy foretold of ....

Could this be the one time where Andy the king of all rampers with so many of those cheeky low res charts is actually out ramped by the weather itself ?

 

 

2 minutes ago, PompeyFC said:

If we get a 3 day blizzard as Andy said I'll personally go up Pontypridd and buy him a pint lol

If we have a 3 day blizzard then u wont get near him for a week or longer if it stays cold.

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8 minutes ago, LJ1224 said:

For those that remember the 82 snow what was the lead up like to that? Do you guys think it will be similar? Really hoping to see something significant. Have been watching the forum and checking Twitter and forecasts like a hawk. 

I dont think i will ever see anything like that in my lifetime , i was 8  and i remember opening the back door and it was a long way over my head, :)  Plus it was the middle of winter.  LJ go here and gavin will tell u all about it. gavsweathervids.com/winter81-82.html

 

Edited by snowy36
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16 minutes ago, Icequeen said:

Don't know how reliable the source but interesting nonetheless

snowriskthursday.jpg

Accumulation pattern fairly similar to the Hirlam model posted earlier - perhaps a bit high as those are for tomorrow only - here are the 48 hour accumulations predicted up to Friday lunchtime: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam.php?ech=48&mode=45&map=430

Compared to the Arpege model which has less in the west but more in the east / mid Wales: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=48&mode=45&map=300

Either way, looks like quite an eventful couple of days coming up!

Freezing rain is the other thing to look out for, Hirlam shows rain in western parts in the early hours of Friday.

hirlamuk-42-42-0.thumb.png.0e0423231cfc12ea0cd74db4baba8f74.png

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