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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
    55 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

    A few flurries this evening so far

    That shower moving south looks promising for you. Looks heavy too (sorry not sure why this has posted twice)

    Edited by bradythemole
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    Looking good for team wales today / this eve- Have fun !!

    Dyma rai o'm lluniau gaeafol (Dydd Mawrth - Wythnos diwethaf) Here are some of my wintry scenes from Tuesday, last week Lleoliad/ Location: Blaenau Clwyd 230masl  (Between Corwen and Rhuthun)

    Some photos from this morning up on the Rhigos between Hirwaun and Treherbert. Here we are around 480-500m asl  it was stunning with amazing views over the Brecon Beacons and beyond. The mountain

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    32 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

    Just have a few points to make;

    . Andy, please attach charts to support such a dramatic tone. 

    Best to follow the Met Office up until Friday. A selection of high resolution models to view include; HIRLAM, Icon, Euro4 & ARPEGE. 

    I don't need to - I was seeing what was coming days if not a week or so ago - I understand the science behind this regarding the depth of cold portrayed with the Siberian uppers etc - and how dense that is, and how difficult it'll be to shift by any low smashing into it - it'll be a monumental struggle - we all know the GFS loves to just push the cold air aside like it's butter - but it never turns out that way and especially with this depth of cold - as the meto are clearly seeing - this will turn into a massive event in pretty much all our favours - and the reason for the RED ALERT rant is because DEREK knew what was coming last week - he's not stupid - but via some of his tweeting over the years even with me he is a bit arrogant and egotistical - but I couldn't believe the Cheshire grin smile he had on last Friday when he was doing the forecasts - when he clearly knew there was a flippin good if not on the money chance that this scenario was setting up so WHY Didn't HE START WARNING PEOPLE ABOUT THE PROBLEM - I've been talking to some who I've met these past couple of days who are blissfully unaware what snow storm emma could potentially do here - and were saying - ahhhhhhhh it's just a bit of cold - do you know what I think the retailers were taken unawares as well - they rely on met office forecasts to stock there stores with the right products - well someones made an unholy gaff here cause there are no products like gritting salt around or other products remotely like that - if they'd warned them properly like they are supposed to then the retailers would have the products to help the public cope with this - so someone's flippin slipped up there too - I could go on and on - the weather forcastimg service is supposed to be there to protect us and as far as the egotistical Derek is concerned he's not doing that

    Edited by andymusic
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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    5 minutes ago, Seasonal weather required said:

    Andy’s steak meal main course blizzard requires no charts .

    When Andy speaks - we listen and follow like the weather serfs we are to him .

    However , if Andy is wrong, we won’t be able to understand why ,as we are just simple folk , but we will go nuts and hunt him down on the black mountain.

     

    Anyway ......

    I am aware of a few highways departments from various councils really gearing up for the Thursday/ Friday event .

    Going for it in a big way - though I guess you have no choice really if you are unsure .

    I suppose normally a storm this time of year would dump 20-40 mm of rain ? over a day or so , so correct me of wrong but were that to be converted into snow isn’t that 20-40 cm ?.

    My prediction is 4-6 inches lowland - 12+ in the valley hot spots .

    Hopefully much more though but that would tick the winter box for me .

    Roll on spring and 15 - 20 degrees sunny days .

    That first day of just wearing a t shirt and it feels comfortable , the life breathed back into to the hedgerows , the invasion of wasps into the eaves - damn must fill that hole in this year ....

    you gotta watch out for them flippin wasps but the buggers that get me when i'm doing the garden are the horse flys - they bite me all over unless I go out in the hot sun looking like DARTH VADER lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.

    Got to say: IF 12z GFS verifies, could be nearly 24hrs of snow fall in SW Wales Thurs/Fri...  Don't think I've ever seen a forecast like it in my memory.

    This could, could be the big one.

    I was worried about the higher 850s moving in with the low, but the models don't seem to see this as an issue for snowfall in this set-up.

    If anyone can tell me not to get excited and why, please do so!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    1 minute ago, benb said:

    Got to say: IF 12z GFS verifies, could be nearly 24hrs of snow fall in SW Wales Thurs/Fri...  Don't think I've ever seen a forecast like it in my memory.

    This could, could be the big one.

    I was worried about the higher 850s moving in with the low, but the models don't seem to see this as an issue for snowfall in this set-up.

    If anyone can tell me not to get excited and why, please do so!!

    nope i'm not - we are on the money for a biblical event in Wales - just wish all knew about it to stay safe

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
    Just now, benb said:

    Got to say: IF 12z GFS verifies, could be nearly 24hrs of snow fall in SW Wales Thurs/Fri...  Don't think I've ever seen a forecast like it in my memory.

    This could, could be the big one.

    I was worried about the higher 850s moving in with the low, but the models don't seem to see this as an issue for snowfall in this set-up.

    If anyone can tell me not to get excited and why, please do so!!

    Metoffice text also very good for Thursday. “Prolonged snowfall with significant accumulation”

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea 450ft asl
  • Location: Swansea 450ft asl
    1 minute ago, benb said:

    Got to say: IF 12z GFS verifies, could be nearly 24hrs of snow fall in SW Wales Thurs/Fri...  Don't think I've ever seen a forecast like it in my memory.

    This could, could be the big one.

    I was worried about the higher 850s moving in with the low, but the models don't seem to see this as an issue for snowfall in this set-up.

    If anyone can tell me not to get excited and why, please do so!!

    Well I will be gladly covered in egg in particular over my big ugly mug ,as Andy’s 3 piece blizzard looks the form horse ?.

    Not exactly 3 full days ,but this I do think could be the big one and we are now within 40hours or so if it starting so any downgrade shifts will become dramatically less and less from this point - and there is always the possibility this could still upgrade !!!

     

    Red warning tomorrow lunchtime ?

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    4 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

    Metoffice text also very good for Thursday. “Prolonged snowfall with significant accumulation”

    We still looking good in Cardiff mate? 

    Not taking any notice of the idiots in the mad thread can't be bothered even venturing into there anymore.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
    8 minutes ago, andymusic said:

    nope i'm not - we are on the money for a biblical event in Wales - just wish all knew about it to stay safe

     

    7 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

    Metoffice text also very good for Thursday. “Prolonged snowfall with significant accumulation”

     

     

    3 minutes ago, Seasonal weather required said:

    Well I will be gladly covered in egg in particular over my big ugly mug ,as Andy’s 3 piece blizzard looks the form horse ?.

    Not exactly 3 full days ,but this I do think could be the big one and we are now within 40hours or so if it starting so any downgrade shifts will become dramatically less and less from this point - and there is always the possibility this could still upgrade !!!

     

    Red warning tomorrow lunchtime ?

     

     

    I'm normally cautious about these things, but it's such an unusually cold set-up I guess if it's going to happen it has to be now.

    Seems to have upgraded last couple of runs, too. But, as usual, half a degree could make all the difference between white-out and wash-out!

    Edited by benb
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    Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
    8 minutes ago, benb said:

    Got to say: IF 12z GFS verifies, could be nearly 24hrs of snow fall in SW Wales Thurs/Fri...  Don't think I've ever seen a forecast like it in my memory.

    This could, could be the big one.

    I was worried about the higher 850s moving in with the low, but the models don't seem to see this as an issue for snowfall in this set-up.

    If anyone can tell me not to get excited and why, please do so!!

    I actually think the GFS is not as good on the 12z, 6 hour gap of snow over thursday and friday, I am more inclined to believe the Met Office within 48 hours 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly, South Wales. 175m ASL
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly, South Wales. 175m ASL

    I'm going to get things thrown at me for this but while I'm looking forward to the snow (beginning in around thirty-six hours and hopefully lasting for thirty-six more!), I'm also looking forward to this being over and normality resuming. I've noticed over the last week, more than ever, people on Netweather getting very worked up over will-it, won't-it minutiae and IMBY concerns and actually getting into arguments over it. Personally, I'm finding myself on edge with each model run and feeling either disappointed or elated. That can't be healthy, can it?

    So, let this weekend be winter's last hurrah: even if we don't get a warm, sunny summer, the abundance of greenery, flowers, long days and walking opportunities in the lovely Welsh countryside will be there to be enjoyed, and with none of the winter snow anxiety!

    Edited by Jackfrost
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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
    Just now, benb said:

    Got to say: IF 12z GFS verifies, could be nearly 24hrs of snow fall in SW Wales Thurs/Fri...  Don't think I've ever seen a forecast like it in my memory.

    This could, could be the big one.

    I was worried about the higher 850s moving in with the low, but the models don't seem to see this as an issue for snowfall in this set-up.

    If anyone can tell me not to get excited and why, please do so!!

    Metoffice text also very good for Thursday. “Prolonged snowfall with significant accumulation”

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: freezing cold and lots of snow
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
    1 minute ago, bradythemole said:

    Metoffice text also very good for Thursday. “Prolonged snowfall with significant accumulation”

    Where does it say that m8? Can u put a link up for me please cheers 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
    1 minute ago, PompeyFC said:

    I actually think the GFS is not as good on the 12z, 6 hour gap of snow over thursday and friday, I am more inclined to believe the Met Office within 48 hours 

     

    Guess I have my Pembrokeshire tinted specs on!

    Far west seems to keep the snow all the way through, whereas there is a break for you guys further east but I'm sure that detail will chop and change over the next 48hrs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea 450ft asl
  • Location: Swansea 450ft asl

     

    4 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

    I'm going to get things thrown at me for this but while I'm looking forward to the snow (beginning in around thirty-six hours and hopefully lasting for thirty-six more!), I'm also looking forward to this being over and normality resuming. I've noticed over the last week, more than ever, people on Netweather getting very worked up over the will-it, won't-it minutiae and IMBY concerns and actually getting into arguments over it. Personally, I'm finding myself on edge with every model run and feeling either disappointed or elated. That can't be healthy, can it?

    So, let this weekend be winter's last hurrah: even if we don't get a warm, sunny summer, the abundance of greenery, flowers, long days and walking opportunities in the lovely Welsh countryside are there to be enjoyed, and with none of the winter snow anxiety!

    Not at all , I know exactly where your coming from and feel the same way .

    One big hit ,a few hours to play like kids in it and then get lost - bring on early summer .

     

    Edited by Seasonal weather required
    i just messed up big time
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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    4 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

    I'm going to get things thrown at me for this but while I'm looking forward to the snow (beginning in around thirty-six hours and hopefully lasting for thirty-six more!), I'm also looking forward to this being over and normality resuming. I've noticed over the last week, more than ever, people on Netweather getting very worked up over the will-it, won't-it minutiae and IMBY concerns and actually getting into arguments over it. Personally, I'm finding myself on edge with every model run and feeling either disappointed or elated. That can't be healthy, can it?

    So, let this weekend be winter's last hurrah: even if we don't get a warm, sunny summer, the abundance of greenery, flowers, long days and walking opportunities in the lovely Welsh countryside are there to be enjoyed, and with none of the winter snow anxiety!

    I think that's called stress and yes it defo isn't good for you lol

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    Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
    5 minutes ago, benb said:

    Got to say: IF 12z GFS verifies, could be nearly 24hrs of snow fall in SW Wales Thurs/Fri...  Don't think I've ever seen a forecast like it in my memory.

    This could, could be the big one.

    I was worried about the higher 850s moving in with the low, but the models don't seem to see this as an issue for snowfall in this set-up.

    If anyone can tell me not to get excited and why, please do so!!

    Got to go some to beat 1982 started snowing 6pm Friday finished 6pm Sunday had about 3feet.But saying that this is very simular set up e.g. a Iberia low moving North with moistened Laden entering Siberia cold air the recipe there for simular results.Yes Andy I'll be surprised if we don't get a red warning For Friday-Saturday.if not what weather gets a red warning .

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    1 minute ago, Seasonal weather required said:

    What was that six nations game where England were way ahead and wales cake back with about 21 points to win it — 2006 ish ?

    Its like that at the moment - all that powdery rubbish  you can’t make a proper snowball 

    Not at all , I know exactly where your coming from and feel the same way .

    One big hit ,a few hours to play like kids in it and then get lost - bring on early summer .

     

    don't think that's gonna happen - winter is gonna drag on through March and could drag through up to EASTER

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

    Heavy snow shower,clouds have really bubbled up -3c

    This has already been colder than 2005/06 just havn`t had the strong winds yet.

    Edited by Snowyowl9
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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    1 minute ago, keithlucky said:

    Got to go some to beat 1982 started snowing 6pm Friday finished 6pm Sunday had about 3feet.But saying that this is very simular set up e.g. a Iberia low moving North with moistened Laden entering Siberia cold air the recipe there for simular results.Yes Andy I'll be surprised if we don't get a red warning For Friday-Saturday.if not what weather gets a red warning .

     

    CATS & DOGS lol - or SHARKNADOS LOL LOL LOL

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
    8 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    We still looking good in Cardiff mate? 

    Not taking any notice of the idiots in the mad thread can't be bothered even venturing into there anymore.

    I think as best placed as any for this particular event. Should be far enough north to stay in colder air and not too far north that we will miss precipitation. Still very uncertain though with the low pressure. I think we’ll have to wait until tomorrow 12z’s run for a more accurate prediction.

    met office clearly confident issuing amber. I don’t think we’ll see red this time. Doesn’t look as bad as earlier in week but still significant accumulations and disruptive. 

    Lets see what happens next 24 hours and see what ECMWF brings tonight too. I have only glanced at 12z’s, but arpege and ICON (higher res modes) and HIRLAM all looked good. Awaiting Euro4

    1 minute ago, freeze for all said:

    Where does it say that m8? Can u put a link up for me please cheers 

    2761E0BB-5392-4982-A81E-BC848D9D4C1D.thumb.jpeg.b08192dde31080605277b9b964011d81.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
    4 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

    I think as best placed as any for this particular event. Should be far enough north to stay in colder air and not too far north that we will miss precipitation. Still very uncertain though with the low pressure. I think we’ll have to wait until tomorrow 12z’s run for a more accurate prediction.

    met office clearly confident issuing amber. I don’t think we’ll see red this time. Doesn’t look as bad as earlier in week but still significant accumulations and disruptive. 

    Lets see what happens next 24 hours and see what ECMWF brings tonight too. I have only glanced at 12z’s, but arpege and ICON (higher res modes) and HIRLAM all looked good. Awaiting Euro4

    2761E0BB-5392-4982-A81E-BC848D9D4C1D.thumb.jpeg.b08192dde31080605277b9b964011d81.jpeg

    Edited by keithlucky
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    Posted
  • Location: Pembroke, West Wales Coast
  • Location: Pembroke, West Wales Coast
    4 hours ago, Penfoel said:

    Here’s Strumble Head :yahoo:we never get snow ! 

     

    D0D05290-8F4B-41C0-B1FE-C11FADDB2AC4.jpeg

    4D33FBA1-B045-4B3D-926A-B5448B8BD90A.jpeg

    Gorgeous Pics... Love them x

    Told you we might get a few flakes Tuesday... lol... 

    I don't think we'll miss out on Thur, just a matter of when and how much !!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea 450ft asl
  • Location: Swansea 450ft asl
    2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

    don't think that's gonna happen - winter is gonna drag on through March and could drag through up to EASTER

    Damn , you included half a post in there for something else I hadn’t finished ... but then subsequently deleted ..

    Anyway, yes it looks cool / cold for March but probably just the wrong side of marginal for lowland areas anyway .

    Cold rain is no good to anyone .

    Bring on the wasps in the eaves i say - I usually get an old dyson out , extend the tube , lean out of the attic window and suck the buggers up one by one .

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: δίκαιο πεδίο- 400 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: red hot lead hail
  • Location: δίκαιο πεδίο- 400 feet ASL

    dont worry about gaps in the snow. if the event is as good, or bad, depending on your point of view as i think it might be, all of the blowing snow will distract you from the fact none is actually coming from the sky :D

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