Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[andymusic]

3 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

Amber for Friday as well yellow for wind

ok yes amber into the early morning of Friday too - yes it's flipping confusing hard to keep up - but i'd say with what we are looking at a storm emma blizzard - it ALL SHOULD BE RED - And it should have been flippin red last week to give people a chance to prep for this - but as usual it's all last lap - I hope no one gets hurt with this, that's all I can say

Edited February 27, 2018 by andymusic

[Icequeen]

3 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

Amber for Friday as well yellow for wind

Amber till 8am Friday

 

[Clair_Witch]

7 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Keeping an eye on this for us Cardiff people. Seems to be intensifying and heading towards us (I think)

Looking likely. The Met Office have us down for heavy snow at 4pm. An 80% chance.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcjszevgx#?date=2018-02-27

[Missdolly]

Snowing here just before the school run !

[welshsi]

18 minutes ago, Missdolly said:

Snowing here just before the school run !

wheres here ! ?

[bradymk]

19 minutes ago, Clair_Witch said:

Looking likely. The Met Office have us down for heavy snow at 4pm. An 80% chance.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcjszevgx#?date=2018-02-27

Looks like missing now that particular one. 

[Bartlett High]

Just had quite a heavy shower here ,lasted about 10 minutes ....bright and sunny now.

[LJ1224]

I think if I did a stress test on my phone now (you can ask your phone to gauge how stressed you are on the Samsung phones) It will probably say very. I think by the time the snow gets here I may have gone mad. Please weather gods, please let me have something in Port Talbot. I do work in Raglan though and we've had a few snow showers, co-worker probably thinks I'm mad as I've been to look outside a few times.  

[Clair_Witch]

It's coming down again here in Cardiff, don't think it will settle though. It's not heavy enough yet.

[Clair_Witch]

And that windchill. Brrr. it's bitterly cold.

[Missdolly]

25 minutes ago, welshsi said:

wheres here ! ?

Merthyr , snowing quite heavy too !

[andymusic]

4 minutes ago, Clair_Witch said:

It's coming down again here in Cardiff, don't think it will settle though. It's not heavy enough yet.

it'll need to put a base down 1st which will need a hefty shower and fairly prolonged - and would be helped by coming at night - but with the air temps as they are plus the ground as hard and frozen as it is - it will not belong before it takes a hold I'm sure

Edited February 27, 2018 by andymusic

[Panayiotis]

The snow here in Cardiff has been on and off all day but it's the powdery dry type so when it hits the floor it breaks up, making the roads look dusty as the wind moves each flake. It's picked up a bit here now but due to the low water content the snow is of the form of small flakes, a bit like seeing flying ants in the summer! 

[alijoe]

is anyone else getting nervous about the upcoming spell? I think because the met are so not sure about it, I feel really nervous it isn't going to happen. Summer Sun said the Icon has moved back to yesterday, bringing in the milder air quicker. gosh this is nerve wrecking.

[worldairgroupemea]

Hello strangers - Jay, Clair, Andy to name a few. Been busy with work and illness in family. Must admit I been lurking last few days but could not post as forgot my password and my email add has changed. So signed in through Twitter.

Im hoping to have an aviation forecast this evening for a flight we have Thursday. As and when I have it will post. Happy snow days! Yippeeee!

[Jayfromcardiff]

What a snow shower that was! Heavy driving snow small flakes.

[bradymk]

Roofs white and grass. Nice heavier shower with small dry flakes. 

[Marcus_surfer]

A few flurries this evening so far

[Jayfromcardiff]

Latest runs not as good. Less snow by the looks.

[keithlucky]

14 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

A few flurries this evening so far

Some decent  showers heading our way

[Fujita scale]

It's what used to happen in the 70s and 80s. Big snow forecast a few days out - stayed in place until just before - then slowly but surely less snow or a milder air victory.

This looks like some of the optimism 'might' get sucked away - which would be just our luck. Patiently waited for several days - and then it will be snatched off us.

Ah well, let's hope it's just a rogue downgrade.....

 

[djwayne]

4 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Latest runs not as good. Less snow by the looks.

I have to say not been convinced by the GFS charts for a few days. GFS shows rain saturday and very little snow for the rest of the week while METO have extended our yellow warning through saturday and given us an amber for Thurs / Fri. I honestly believe there are still corections to be made to the track of the low and if I were a betting man would back UKMO in this situation.

[MattTarrant]

Just have a few points to make;

. Andy, please attach charts to support such a dramatic tone. 

Best to follow the Met Office up until Friday. A selection of high resolution models to view include; HIRLAM, Icon, Euro4 & ARPEGE. 

Edited February 27, 2018 by Paul

[bradymk]

46 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

A few flurries this evening so far

That shower moving south looks promising for you. Looks heavy too

[Seasonal weather required]

12 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

Just have a few points to make;

. Andy, please attach charts to support such a dramatic tone. 

. Ignore the model output thread for the time being, there are simply some nonce's posting low resolution precipitation charts which hugely misguide folks. 

. Best to follow the Met Office up until Friday. A selection of high resolution models to view include; HIRLAM, Icon, Euro4 & ARPEGE. 

Andy’s steak meal main course blizzard requires no charts .

When Andy speaks - we listen and follow like the weather serfs we are to him .

However , if Andy is wrong, we won’t be able to understand why ,as we are just simple folk , but we will go nuts and hunt him down on the black mountain.

 

Anyway ......

I am aware of a few highways departments from various councils really gearing up for the Thursday/ Friday event .

Going for it in a big way - though I guess you have no choice really if you are unsure .

I suppose normally a storm this time of year would dump 20-40 mm of rain ? over a day or so , so correct me of wrong but were that to be converted into snow isn’t that 20-40 cm ?.

My prediction is 4-6 inches lowland - 12+ in the valley hot spots .

Hopefully much more though but that would tick the winter box for me .

Roll on spring and 15 - 20 degrees sunny days .

That first day of just wearing a t shirt and it feels comfortable , the life breathed back into to the hedgerows , the invasion of wasps into the eaves - damn must fill that hole in this year ....