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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

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1 hour ago, Clair_Witch said:

I think it will change many times before the low reaches our shores. I keep watching the forecasts for Cardiff flip flop between heavy snow, sleet and rain. Nothing is set in stone yet.

Met office is having trouble getting data up at the mo.....

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13 minutes ago, PompeyFC said:

Until I see it tomorrow on radar Andy its not definite lol. Pompey showing snow today on various models and radar. Friends tell me a few flakes but nothing more yet thats not what radar is showing. It' always a Nowcast job with snow lol

you aren't getting this and understanding - the met office have already warned about tomorrow - and this is a slow burner situation - the cold came in and set the scene and hardened and froze the ground - we are now seeing the beginnings of the initial blast from Siberia in EXTREMELY low uppers bringing with them lightly at the start but still snow showers - this will build to more aggressive showers and possible "fronts" being generated from the north sea snow machine - and the PISTE DE RESISTENCE will be the THREE DAY BLIZZARD we'll get from Thursday onwards:cold::cold::cold::wallbash::wallbash::wallbash::cold::cold::cold:

Edited by andymusic

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Just now, andymusic said:

you aren't getting this and understanding - the met office have already warned about tomorrow - and this is a slow burner situation - the cold came in and set the scene and hardened and froze the ground - we are now seeing the beginnings of the initial balst from Siberia in EXTREMELY low uppers bringing with them lightly at the start but still snow showers - this will build to more aggressive showers and possible "fronts" being generated from the notrth sea snow machine - and the the PISTE DE RESISTENCE will be the THREE DAY BLIZZARD we'll get from Thursday onwards:cold::cold::cold::wallbash::wallbash::wallbash::cold::cold::cold:

The snow isn't going to hit us today or tomorrow I've looked at the latest runs.

Thursday still a chance but not sure.

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1 minute ago, andymusic said:

PISTE DE RESISTENCE

Was that a deliberate pun, Andy? A bloody good one if so.

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1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

The snow isn't going to hit us today or tomorrow I've looked at the latest runs.

Thursday still a chance but not sure.

it's building - god have some patience - it's coming Jay

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1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

The snow isn't going to hit us today or tomorrow I've looked at the latest runs.

Thursday still a chance but not sure.

What runs?

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1 minute ago, Jackfrost said:

Was that a deliberate pun, Andy? A bloody good one if so.

I try lol

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Just now, andymusic said:

it's building - god have some patience - it's coming Jay

Just took the word out of my mouth PATIENCE..................................

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4 minutes ago, andymusic said:

you aren't getting this and understanding - the met office have already warned about tomorrow - and this is a slow burner situation - the cold came in and set the scene and hardened and froze the ground - we are now seeing the beginnings of the initial blast from Siberia in EXTREMELY low uppers bringing with them lightly at the start but still snow showers - this will build to more aggressive showers and possible "fronts" being generated from the north sea snow machine - and the PISTE DE RESISTENCE will be the THREE DAY BLIZZARD we'll get from Thursday onwards:cold::cold::cold::wallbash::wallbash::wallbash::cold::cold::cold:

I've been around netweather for 15 years Andy so I certainly do understand it and have seen a fair few easterlies come and go, it will snow tomorrow but how much we get and where will depend on the positioning of the front, I am all for ramping but the positioning of these things cannot be foreseen until it arrives, same with the low on Friday 

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there is massive potential tomorrow Jay, particularly looking at the modelling of the feature(not really a polar low as such).  It could well pick up a massive amount of moisture overnight and the WRF model shows south wales taking a hit.  As I said until you look at the radar tomorrow you cannot be sure but I am sure we will see snow, how much will depend on that low approaching from the north east

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20 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Expect tomorrow warning to be taken down, it won't be hitting mid or south Wales.

Where then?

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Also, apart from the precip from the low itself. With thickness and uppers like shown, there will most likely be much more widespread precip/showers than models show. Look at models for now and then look at radar for example. A very unstable airmass tomorrow and Wednesday. 

Like metoffice text says “frequent snow showers throughout”

so if the precip from the low misses you Jay, still got very good chance from the showers. 

The warning for tomorrow is for snow showers and longer periods of snow, not just for the area of more organsied precip from that low.

Quietly optimistic we’ll have a covering by Wednesday morn ?

Edited by bradythemole
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21 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Someone posted a few charts for tomorrow and it looked to miss us.

Euro4 - Good (Only missing SE Coast/Inland Region), enough margin of area to travel 50 miles north or south. 

Hirlam - Was very good (More southerly feature). 

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Understandable that people are keen to wind the clock forward 24 hours to see what happens. I agree that patience is key now, we cannot change what is or what is not coming. maybe sometimes model watching is the worst thing we can do.i can remember as a kid waking up and seeing a covering of snow everywhere, best feeling in the world and that was without the constant will it wont it snow chances of net weather

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Flakes blowing around here! Enough about my colleague's dandruff though.

I'm focussed on Thursday/ Friday. Hopefully things trend south and east closer to then. Anything before that is a massive bonus for me!

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1 minute ago, djwayne said:

Derek's latest twet looks fun for Friday

 

https://twitter.com/DerekTheWeather/status/968103342386884608

Well as a weather enthusiast I will take the freezing rain option as opposed to the wet fart blizzard .

That would be really interesting .

Please don’t have a go at me ,saying how many problems that would create and how selfish of me and that I am a truly horrible person - but I defend my right as a weather enthusiast to choose the freezing rain option .

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OOOH hell freezing rain that`ll be in the south,could be an ICE STORM.

Onto today snow showers but flurries have reached this far when I first woke up,saw a flake or 2.

Dried up currently,did have a sprinkling coldest night of the winter -5.7c

Edited by Snowyowl9

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Blizzards are sooo yesterday - boring - move along -

ICE STORM PLEASE .

Wow “ICE STORM “ that has much more of a scary ring to it than just a bog standard blizzard .

Andy - Stuff your  3 piece steak blizzard - I’m having a cruella de vil turn you into ice storm .

 

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