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7 hours ago, andymusic said:

you are too kind - I just enjoy the weather like the rest of you and being up here in the gods in these conditions - have to keep a close eye on things just in case we get cut off - and right now it looks like a major supply stock up will be needed sometime this weekend ready for the onslaught next week - enjoy the snow

Im stocking up now have to its a way of life here.......

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Looking good for team wales today / this eve- Have fun !!

Dyma rai o'm lluniau gaeafol (Dydd Mawrth - Wythnos diwethaf) Here are some of my wintry scenes from Tuesday, last week Lleoliad/ Location: Blaenau Clwyd 230masl  (Between Corwen and Rhuthun)

Some photos from this morning up on the Rhigos between Hirwaun and Treherbert. Here we are around 480-500m asl  it was stunning with amazing views over the Brecon Beacons and beyond. The mountain

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56 minutes ago, DeepSnow said:

Im suprised we are so quiet in here still considering whats coming up! We are looking better each day now for this cold as it gets closer and remains strong in the models. Im sure Wales will get a suprise snowfall from this at somepoint too. Be interesting to see how low our temps get here. Fun times ahead! 

I think everything's in place though now Deep Snow - and deep snow is what you're gonna get - we are now just on count down to the 1st flake coming over the borders of Wales from the East - it could well happen anytime from around Sunday/Monday onwards - just light at 1st but then increasing minute by minute/hour by hour day by day - till we get the dumping/pasting we're all looking for - and it's coming believe me

Edited by andymusic
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I know all this talk of bitter cold and snow is exciting but for us here, at least for the first few days of this upcoming spell, it's likely to be mostly dry and cloudy in south and east Wales, brighter in the north and west, with the occasional flurry or shower. I'm not aware of a straight easterly, either in my twenty-seven years or from historical records, that brought large snowfalls to Wales via convection all the way from the North Sea. Frankly, it's the same logic as expecting Suffolk to benefit from a Bristol Channel streamer! Yes, there was lying snow in Wales in the famous easterly outbreaks of 1987 and 1991, but nothing too significant and nothing remotely close to what was seen in Eastern England. This is what Essex saw in January 1987:

image.thumb.png.b466515024c9f41f2a49595799013dac.png

 Now, Wales comes into play when disturbances enter the flow. In an Easterly, disturbances which particularly affect us are likely to come from the south or southeast or directly from the Atlantic and, given the right circumstances, can deliver some phenomenal snowfalls. The model outputs have shown particular interest in the period around March 1st-2nd; it's a long way off but the longer the cold perpetuates, the higher the chances are that the precise set-up will change and provide favourability to our little country.

If anybody is interested in past weather, this is a good resource:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/library/archive-hidden-treasures/monthly-weather-report

Edited by Jackfrost
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lets have some charts shall we and see the latest info

gfs-2-138.png?0

gfs-2-144.png?0

gfs-2-150.png?0

oh and the ECM and the GFS are just a joy to behold - you won't see these sorts of charts very often in any of your lifetimes that's for sure - BUT if this solar minimum does keep happening into the next couple of decades it's very possible these set ups could occur again and again

 

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7 minutes ago, andymusic said:

lets have some charts shall we and see the latest info

 

But those are the low-res charts, Andy, and they're not reliable. I'm not trying to be a party pooper and I'm not saying it won't snow in Wales - it almost certainly will at some point! - but I'm not yet convinced of snowmageddon. Something akin to Jan. '45, Feb. '78 and Jan. '82 will happen again and it could happen within the next two weeks, but it probably won't.

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1 minute ago, Jackfrost said:

But those are the low-res charts, Andy, and they're not reliable. I'm not trying to be a party pooper and I'm not saying it won't snow in Wales - it almost certainly will at some point! - but I'm not yet convinced of snowmageddon.

just a general idea - euro 4 and other more detailed charts nearer the time will tell us more - but the snow IS COMING - Siberian temps are coming and it will bring the snow

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8 minutes ago, andymusic said:

just a general idea - euro 4 and other more detailed charts nearer the time will tell us more - but the snow IS COMING - Siberian temps are coming and it will bring the snow

Oh I agree that the cold is nailed on and that it probably will snow, but what we're all hoping most likely will not come within the first few days of the spell and won't come directly from the North Sea. Honestly, they can have their convective snow in Eastern England as long as we see a front approach from the southwest, collide with the stagnant cold air and stall over us for a day or two.

Bingo: this is the kind of chart we need to keep our eyes peeled for:

image.png

Edited by Jackfrost
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16 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

 

Oh I agree that the cold is nailed on and that it probably will snow, but what we're all hoping most likely will not come within the first few days of the spell and won't come directly from the North Sea. Honestly, they can have their convective snow in Eastern England as long as we see a front approach from the southwest, collide with the stagnant cold air and stall over us for a day or two.

Bingo: this is the kind of chart we need to keep our eyes peeled for:

image.png

absolutely mate - west/south west low/barrelling in our direction into the Siberian temps atlantic front dumpings galore - digging out for days afterwards - one winter wonderland lol :cold::cold:

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30 minutes ago, andymusic said:

absolutely mate - west/south west low/barrelling in our direction into the Siberian temps atlantic front dumpings galore - digging out for days afterwards - one winter wonderland lol :cold::cold:

And what's more re. that chart, it had slipped my mind that February has twenty-eight days and not thirty/thirty-one, meaning that the threat of snow from the south/southwest could realistically arrive in a week from now, adjustments depending. I don't recommend anybody getting too excited just yet but the last few runs have been consistent in something happening during the opening days of March.

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53 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

 

Oh I agree that the cold is nailed on and that it probably will snow, but what we're all hoping most likely will not come within the first few days of the spell and won't come directly from the North Sea. Honestly, they can have their convective snow in Eastern England as long as we see a front approach from the southwest, collide with the stagnant cold air and stall over us for a day or two.

Bingo: this is the kind of chart we need to keep our eyes peeled for:

image.png

That’s our holy grail ....

One of those for a few days ( can put a tick in the winter box )  then straight to early summer please !.

Looking like with the high heading to Greenland we will get Northerlies after a week or so from now  - though will the up coming cold spell assist in March northerlies producing goods in  to low land wales ....or will they end up just being the usual valley type +200 metre  events ....or perhaps more likely to just be a sleety Pembrokeshire dangler ...

Personally a NNW is required -but in March hmmm ..

 

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43 minutes ago, Seasonal weather required said:

That’s our holy grail ....

One of those for a few days ( can put a tick in the winter box )  then straight to early summer please !.

Looking like with the high heading to Greenland we will get Northerlies after a week or so from now  - though will the up coming cold spell assist in March northerlies producing goods in  to low land wales ....or will they end up just being the usual valley type +200 metre  events ....or perhaps more likely to just be a sleety Pembrokeshire dangler ...

Personally a NNW is required -but in March hmmm ..

  This has to be THE one we've been waiting for, hopefully everyone will get something! 

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Those at the BBC and Metoffice are no doubt aware of the potential for March 1st-3rd, as suggested by Derek's tweet.

We've been suckered into getting excited over snow events which don't materialise in the past, but the depth of cold on this occasion may just vindicate our excitement!

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Just now, Cwmbran Eira said:

image.png.41d32996b251dfb8d40aba3a16e4b803.png

Wind chill next Thursday morning. Ouch. Bit stingy that. Short walk for the dog i'm thinking 

 

Don't forget what they say: no such thing as bad weather, just bad clothing!

I'm sure our canine friends will appreciate an extra layer or two, too, since -15 is going to feel cold whether you have a thick layer of fur or not.

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6 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

Don't forget what they say: no such thing as bad weather, just bad clothing!

I'm sure our canine friends will appreciate an extra layer or two, too, since -15 is going to feel cold whether you have a thick layer of fur or not.

your right!. Think it'll be ski gear time. and a big coat for me. hahaha

Think it's time to start stocking up. Not that its needed but cos it feels good. My list mainly consists of beer and the standard milk. potatoes and bread. Got to have plenty of beer when it snows. Its like a big celebration. 

And plenty of pointless walking. Must walk somewhere and frequently. A pub is a great target. 

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33 minutes ago, Missdolly said:

I'm glad I'm on Annual leave next week , I'll do a supermarket sweep and be prepared ! Hope this winter has saved the best for last ?.

Meanwhile in the mad thread ??! 

don't know why you bother with the mad thread - it's cosy and warm in this thread and we are all nice to each other lol - they don't wanna talk about how the weather will effect our part of the world - and we're happy with that lol cause we'll keep an eye on our own mountains and land and individual weather set ups

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was at the top of the ski resort zell am zee, Austria some years ago and it was minus 20 - had a moustache - and there were icicles hanging off it - that'll give you some idea of what we're facing lol

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39 minutes ago, andymusic said:

was at the top of the ski resort zell am zee, Austria some years ago and it was minus 20 - had a moustache - and there were icicles hanging off it - that'll give you some idea of what we're facing lol

 

Hope it doesnt last for a month...this time....

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7 minutes ago, lindy2222 said:

 

Hope it doesnt last for a month...this time....

latest gfs run cold goes out to end of the run till 10th March - with the odd blip - but fairly steadfast - who knows how long this might last

and the met office are pushing the cold to last well into the middle of march reading around there forecast

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Feb 2018 to Thursday 8 Mar 2018:

It will continue very cold through next week, with sunny spells. However, snow showers are likely in many places, heaviest and most frequent in eastern and some central areas. Some spells of more prolonged snow are likely, especially in the east, and particularly later next week, across southern areas. Some locally significant snowfalls are likely although details will remain uncertain until much nearer the event. Strong winds will make it feel bitterly cold at times. Widespread, locally severe frosts are likely. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather. Continuing windy at times, bringing marked wind chill and further snow in places. However the southwest may become milder at times but with further rain, sleet or snow.

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Mar 2018 to Thursday 22 Mar 2018:

At the start of this period it is likely to be very cold across the UK, with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the UK, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March.

 

way out in la la land - middle of march it's pretty much guess work rather than forecasting so that could all change - this could last into easter - you never know

Edited by andymusic
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GFS 12Z is on board for a potential major snow event from the 2nd into the 3rd.

image.thumb.png.6bf4af97bf24ac9938449dd7a1476f2e.pngimage.thumb.png.9ef33753b22938227196ec6d44771397.png

Some genuinely incredible cold and dribs and drabs of snow before then.

Edited by Jackfrost
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