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Looking good for team wales today / this eve- Have fun !!

Dyma rai o'm lluniau gaeafol (Dydd Mawrth - Wythnos diwethaf) Here are some of my wintry scenes from Tuesday, last week Lleoliad/ Location: Blaenau Clwyd 230masl  (Between Corwen and Rhuthun)

Fair dooz to Torfaen council. They've initiated their red warning plan. I've just received the survival package.

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6 minutes ago, Cwmbran Eira said:

 

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lol - ok gfs 18z - a little dryer to start next week - only a detail that could change at a whim lol

gfs-2-174.png?18

gfs-2-180.png?18

dumping

gfs-2-252.png?18

gfs & ecm all over the place on exact details regarding snow and snow dumpings/pastings

will be closer to the day or the day before - euro4 in more detail 48hrs or so before - but the bitterness of the air temps will be extraordinary - derek finally gave out a timid warning today - but still was grinning from ear to ear like a Cheshire cat lol - i'd be more inclined to warn the aged etc - this will be brutal temps wise - forget about the snow and could hurt many

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I doubt it we will benefit in terms of snow from this, especially far west, probably only hopes we have is when the atlantic pushes in from the west, but by then western side temps will be too warm as always and it will benefit those inland!

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Yes, I suspect that cold rather than snow will be the main feature over the coming week or two for most of us in Wales. Flurries are likely, especially in East Wales, and perhaps some longer and heftier showers at times, with the low temperatures meaning that whatever falls is all but guaranteed to settle, but nothing like what's possible in Eastern England.*

*Not based on current output but on past experience with these setups.

Edited by Jackfrost
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OK you Welsh Weather geeks - lol - it's gonna be BITTERLY BITTERLY COLD - as we know and is repeated constantly in the MAD THREAD - "Get The Cold In" - then watch the snow come - and complete "SNOW Details" will not be known until much closer to the time they happen - so bearing those two facts in mind - once the cold is in - snow chances increase by a mile and the potential and in this set up, the potential for a lot of snow is ODDS ON - you have been WARNED!

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Not sure you can say odds on in this setup. Easterly could just as easily be bitter cold and dry at the moment. Depends on angle of flow and what the high does thats over us. ECM hints at this as did a previous GFS run. 

More runs required and as you say we won't know until Sunday I reckon how likely we are to get a dumping.

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1 hour ago, andymusic said:

gfs 6z - steady as she goes - no change

R u sure about that?? I've just looked in the mad thread and I think it's to far north, to far south, to far in the middle and to far upside down!!!! Just off to take some paracetamol cos my head is spinning ??.  We're getting the cold but as for snow and how cold let's just wait and c wot happens, anything has got to b better than the depressing cold rain and wind we've had lately

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14 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

R u sure about that?? I've just looked in the mad thread and I think it's to far north, to far south, to far in the middle and to far upside down!!!! Just off to take some paracetamol cos my head is spinning ??.  We're getting the cold but as for snow and how cold let's just wait and c wot happens, anything has got to b better than the depressing cold rain and wind we've had lately

ignore the mad thread - we are now getting to the - "will it snow in my backyard" territory and it's when all the fights start breaking out - believe me stay out of there - ain't been in the mad thread for a week or two - I analyse with my own thoughts on the models - and this cold will be bitter and we WILL have snow mark my words and a lot of it

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3 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

And it misses us ?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

ant welsh and Scottish 

i know it’s onlu up to Monday 

That’s because the cold weather alert only coveres England, they don’t do it for Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland for some reason!

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2 minutes ago, leehws said:

That’s because the cold weather alert only coveres England, they don’t do it for Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland for some reason!

Metoffice.gov.uk =England 

somebody needs to ring Carwyn at the assembly 

Edited by Loadsa2000
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1 hour ago, Loadsa2000 said:

And it misses us ?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

ant welsh and Scottish 

i know it’s onlu up to Monday 

early days by Monday on this - we are gonna have a problem further into next week with the snow but the bitter winds will effect us as from the weekend onwards

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met office latest - only the beginning of this - we will get snow from this set up and if an atlantic front kicks into wales - it'll be loads of the stuff

21 February 2018

After a mostly dry and settled second half to the week across the country, it will gradually become colder in the south with bitterly cold, but still dry weather, expected to develop across the south east during the weekend.

As high pressure, currently centred over northern Britain, gradually migrates further north-eastwards, to become centred over Scandinavia, very cold air will spread from western Russia towards the UK.  By Monday it will turn very cold more widely and this will probably be the start of the coldest spell of the winter. Many places will remain dry into the start of next week, but snow showers are expected to develop in some places, particularly across eastern and southern England. The cold easterly wind will persist bringing a significant wind chill which will make it feel several degrees colder than thermometers indicate.

There is potential for some disruptive snowfall next week, although the likelihood of heavy snow in any given location is very difficult to gauge; some places could see some significant amounts of snow, while nearby locations may receive very little. At this stage, we consider the region’s most likely to have disruptive snowfall are parts of east and southeast England. Here, disruption to travel is possible for the start of the working week.

The high pressure over Scandinavia bringing the cold easterly flow is expected to remain in place for several days and there are signs that the cold spell in the UK is likely to last well into next week and perhaps into the following week. Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist, Brent Walker, said: “Whilst a major widespread snow event is currently not expected, some parts of Southeast England could have the first significant spell of snow so far this winter during next week. Indeed, there is potential for this cold spell to be the coldest for several years in the south”. March 1st is the start of meteorological Spring, but this year the first week of march is likely to feel distinctly wintry.

Edited by andymusic
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5 hours ago, andymusic said:

early days by Monday on this - we are gonna have a problem further into next week with the snow but the bitter winds will effect us as from the weekend onwards

Andy, I see your STILL the undisputed weather forecasting  champion of Wales.

A great asset to our regional forum.

It would be quite cold without you....

From what I have seen I agree that we are much more likely to see some decent snowfall toward the end of next week--- its not staying directly easterly for too long before turning more north easterly and northerly.....

 

 

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Perhaps I’m spending too much time in the Mod threads lately but the words West and Wales have been conspicuous by their absence in there hopefully we’ll get out of the kitchen and into the party at some point.

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1 hour ago, Seasonal weather required said:

Andy, I see your STILL the undisputed weather forecasting  champion of Wales.

A great asset to our regional forum.

It would be quite cold without you....

From what I have seen I agree that we are much more likely to see some decent snowfall toward the end of next week--- its not staying directly easterly for too long before turning more north easterly and northerly.....

 

 

you are too kind - I just enjoy the weather like the rest of you and being up here in the gods in these conditions - have to keep a close eye on things just in case we get cut off - and right now it looks like a major supply stock up will be needed sometime this weekend ready for the onslaught next week - enjoy the snow

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27 minutes ago, Stevetynant said:

Perhaps I’m spending too much time in the Mod threads lately but the words West and Wales have been conspicuous by their absence in there hopefully we’ll get out of the kitchen and into the party at some point.

 

14 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

All SE ENGLAND only in that Mad thread ' Never a mention of our stunning country .

Wales doesn't exist in there except when they want to come to our country for there hols in the summer - but hey we get the fun all year round - and with the mountains we get more snowy fun on average than they do anyway - which gets them heated right under the collar - not our fault if they'd rather live in the flat south east lol - but I don't wanna start a punch up - we should all live together in harmony - but maybe trumps got a point and we can build a wall along offers dyke to keep the undesirables out lol

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Im suprised we are so quiet in here still considering whats coming up! We are looking better each day now for this cold as it gets closer and remains strong in the models. Im sure Wales will get a suprise snowfall from this at somepoint too. Be interesting to see how low our temps get here. Fun times ahead! 

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