Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[andymusic]

2 minutes ago, marksiwnc said:

I was thinking why the weather warning was showing for the West really.  I can't see anything below 100meters.  That's just a guess mind you.  Seems like forecast temperatures have risen a few degrees than originally thought 

but nobody will actually know till the day cause of the marginality - all eyes on radar and reports coming in

[keithlucky]

43 minutes ago, marksiwnc said:

I was thinking why the weather warning was showing for the West really.  I can't see anything below 100meters.  That's just a guess mind you.  Seems like forecast temperatures have risen a few degrees than originally thought 

Dew points fine in heavy showers plus temperatures will fall a few degrees during the showers, strong N West wind feeling very cold w no worries about not having snow ,lets enjoy some of the white stuff1as long as we get the precipation lol.

Edited January 10, 2017 by keithlucky

[ourson]

Not feeling it at the moment for me and mine - Cardiff on the wrong side of everything. Remaining positive though and really think that we're due a good one in SE Wales before long. Bring it on!!

Edited January 10, 2017 by ourson

[gareth moo]

Would be great to see some snow this week but next week is where its at folks.

Battleground potential for sure. More output needed but will be exciting to watch it unfold.

[Marcus_surfer]

Even if we dont see any snow at least ive seen some by defrosting the freezer today 

Edited January 10, 2017 by Marcus_surfer

[gareth moo]

59 minutes ago, gareth moo said:

Would be great to see some snow this week but next week is where its at folks.

Battleground potential for sure. More output needed but will be exciting to watch it unfold.

I take it back. GFS has just thrown us a Thursday afternoon and evening surprise. PPN pushed further north therefore rain turning readily to snow, particularly in SE Wales.

[A Frayed Knot]

Looking good now .

[pyrotech]

Certainly enough to watch out for

Meto still going for mainly rain for us, the GFS not been the most reliable lately and if anything on catch up with ECM.

However its also the latest run with latest data so lets hope that that feature has shifted slightly North as it indicates.

Will be a bit of a now cast situation i feel,  The Dew points are greatest issue but in heavier precipitation we will see evaporative cooling and if we get a full rotation the cold  or colder air would get pulled into the mix with lower associated dew points. 

[A Frayed Knot]

Up and down like a nagging YO-YO

[andymusic]

1 hour ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Up and down like a nagging YO-YO

That's cause it's struggling with the set up cause it doesn't happen very often and always trys to get back to a westerly set up - but the tooing and froing means it ain't sure what's gonna happen - ecm seems more stable

[andymusic]

LOVELY

Edited January 11, 2017 by andymusic

[whiskers]

3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

LOVELY

When is this happening? Is it wet snow/rain or proper snow? 

[andymusic]

16 minutes ago, whiskers said:

When is this happening? Is it wet snow/rain or proper snow? 

marginal - a mix then - depends how much the colder northerly winds mix in with the front - for thursday

Edited January 11, 2017 by andymusic

[whiskers]

Currently 9 degrees here !!

[andymusic]

24 minutes ago, whiskers said:

Currently 9 degrees here !!

yeah but this is today - overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning the temps are gonna drop markedly because of the artic northerly winds

[Jayfromcardiff]

3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

yeah but this is today - overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning the temps are gonna drop markedly because of the artic northerly winds

Do you think we'll see much snow Andy? Looks better the more east you are according to BBC. Obviously there's time for it to shift west but can't see it.

[Fujita scale]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

yeah but this is today - overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning the temps are gonna drop markedly because of the artic northerly winds

Yes Andy, but we are also going to need the dew points to be with us as well - as we know for snow - a lot of variables!

 

I think it looks as though the wishbone effect is going to treat the usual suspects - and inland Wales and especially further south - might just be a tad on the too warm side for the desired snow (for most  )

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, Fujita scale said:

Yes Andy, but we are also going to need the dew points to be with us as well - as we know for snow - a lot of variables!

 

I think it looks as though the wishbone effect is going to treat the usual suspects - and inland Wales and especially further south - might just be a tad on the too warm side for the desired snow (for most  )

I agree, something will go wrong lol. I think the hills and mountains of Wales will see the snow with low lying areas seeing a wintry mix. I certainly won't be getting excited after all the other let downs.

[Fujita scale]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

I agree, something will go wrong lol. I think the hills and mountains of Wales will see the snow with low lying areas seeing a wintry mix. I certainly won't be getting excited after all the other let downs.

Yes Jay - but if we do get some surprises then that would be great. I know the forecasters are struggling so let's hope that all the variables fall into place on the day and surprise us all!

 

JK

[andymusic]

it's called wait and see - with all the gizmos and multi multi million pound computers - the weather still makes fools of us all by slightly altering stuff at the last minute - wait and see and watch what happens

[Fujita scale]

With caution attached - looking good....

 

[welshwizard]

Myself think it be down to height again,low lying areas rain/sleet high up snow. Like normal.

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, welshwizard said:

Myself think it be down to height again,low lying areas rain/sleet high up snow. Like normal.

Yep the BBC Wales graphics had rain all over Wales and said snow on higher ground.

[andymusic]

18 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Yep the BBC Wales graphics had rain all over Wales and said snow on higher ground.

patience GRASS HOPPER

[Penfoel]

57 minutes ago, andymusic said:

it's called wait and see - with all the gizmos and multi multi million pound computers - the weather still makes fools of us all by slightly altering stuff at the last minute - wait and see and watch what happens

Hi Andy ... are we likely to see a " Pembrokeshire Dangler" 

i currently live in Trefin ..near St Davids right on the coast and I wondered if you can explain the phenomenon to me in layman terms ...

thanks guys !