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Much better chance of of seeing snow tomorrow as wind slighty changes direction as a fresh batch of showers travels down the irish see feeling bitterley cold with a fresh northerly wind picks up https://t.co/F6UsqjnVso

Edited by keithlucky
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Got a slight dusting of snow grains a min of -0.2c

Showers on there way.

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Light flurries of snow in Crickhowell and Abergavenny. Not bad for last day of autumn. 

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1st snow flurries finally here now - very light - but it's a start

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A few snow and soft hail showers this morning and flurries.

Cold enough for snow to reach low ground today which was surprising.

Still a slight patchy dusting of snow in the shade.

Coldest day so far at 2.9c and a fresh to sometimes strong north/NW wind.

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Had a few grains and flakes here,bitter cold but lush,hopefully there's more to come! Better than last year already!

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Not as cold as last November mins as its struggling to get below -0.5c yet.

-0.4c min last night but so far many more ground frosts and more air frosts in total so far at 5 only this time last year.

Edited by Snowyowl9

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any one noticed something weird in the sky right now - it's 4pm and the moon is full up in the sky - very strange!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited by andymusic

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bit like jaws this - just keeps getting closer and closer and there's nowt you can do about it lol:cold:

one blizzard coming up

gfs-2-150.png?12

gfs-2-156.png?12

gfs-2-162.png?12

gfs-2-168.png?12

gfs-2-180.png?12

gfs-2-186.png?12

and it's still going

gfs-2-192.png?12

Edited by andymusic

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Had these charts the other day and its getting milder.

I'll believe it when i see it

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5 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Had these charts the other day and its getting milder.

I'll believe it when i see it

have some faith - further blocking - shorter days = colder 850 temps coming further south - and a big if - if the gfs has got the low right even half as good as that - then this could be on the money - not just the gfs showing this our own team in Exeter ukmo - also showing something very similar - so something's afoot - a foot of snow hopefully - will be if this comes off

Edited by andymusic

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1 minute ago, andymusic said:

have some faith - further blocking - shorter days = colder 850 temps coming further south - and a big if - if the gfs has got the low right even half as good as that - then this could be on the money

Guaranteed models will flip again in the next 24 hours and it will look completely different though

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1 hour ago, andymusic said:

have some faith - further blocking - shorter days = colder 850 temps coming further south - and a big if - if the gfs has got the low right even half as good as that - then this could be on the money - not just the gfs showing this our own team in Exeter ukmo - also showing something very similar - so something's afoot - a foot of snow hopefully - will be if this comes off

Mother of all snow storms to hit uk next Friday(pity it 7 days away)12_159_preciptype.png?cb=734image.thumb.png.4821c02983309217aeaf268f483bd24a.pngSaying that weather patterns are unusual atm.

Edited by keithlucky

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2 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Mother of all snow storms to hit uk next Friday(pity it 7 days away)12_159_preciptype.png?cb=734image.thumb.png.4821c02983309217aeaf268f483bd24a.pngSaying that weather patterns are unusual atm.

could actually start as early as Thursday afternoon as temps drop

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Those charts r nearly a week away and the way the models r at the mo anything over 2 days is to far ahead to say wot the weather will b

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cold and snow is in earlier by another 6 hours on this one - was Thursday evening on the 12z - Thursday lunchtime this time - getting closer and closer

138

gfs-2-138.png?18

144

gfs-2-144.png?18

156

gfs-2-156.png?18

162

gfs-2-162.png?18

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well the pub run wouldn't be the pub run without all the bells and whistles along with the above we have - slider lows - battleground snow - just the way we like it in Wales lol

slider low

gfs-2-228.png?18

gfs-2-234.png?18

and battleground - what a run

gfs-2-324.png?18

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If ever the phrase coined about the model thread of "get the cold in first" was justified it would be this chart. This would be like the snow of olden days bucket loads and the m4 getting a couple of foot of snow a la 1982 with no chance of going anywhere but the local pub on a snow day :drunk-emoji:

IMG_4198.PNG

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repeat repeat for both gfs 00z and 6z + ecm and ukmo

gfs-2-132.png?6

get them sledges dusted off and harness the huskies

the 850 temps stay in the freezer at least 7 days and more on the 6z run with snow on the ground - quite something for this early in the season

Edited by andymusic

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I think we better get some snow shovels looking very likely now that starting next Thursday we could be headed for winter proper with a fair bit of snow on offer. I'd say we have a 70% chance now of snow to into next weekend as for further ahead we could be looking at locked in cold with slider possibilities heading towards mid month with jet stream angled nw to se from Greenland down to Spain. 

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Magic ECM output this evening showing decent frontal snow for Wales next weekend. Fingers crossed for upgrades because its marginal as always!

 

 

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