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I am more bemused by the model thread.....a few poor runs today and it's meltdown in there!its safer in here lol.real potential for this weekend aswell!!!

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3 hours ago, dbaloo said:

I am more bemused by the model thread.....a few poor runs today and it's meltdown in there!its safer in here lol.real potential for this weekend aswell!!!

Still showing snow possibilities across Wales on Fridayhttp://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_36_preciptype.png?cb=847

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4 hours ago, dbaloo said:

I am more bemused by the model thread.....a few poor runs today and it's meltdown in there!its safer in here lol.real potential for this weekend aswell!!!

Prozak comes to mind when reading the model thread at times! Ian Fergusson poor chap says one thing and they're all on a downer!

Great potential for Wales this weekend, anywhere could see their first flakes would thing the beacons, cambrians and snowdonia could manage a few inches above say 250-300m.

Accumilations possible down to about 100-150m methinks, time will tell.

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Although a little snow this early would be very welcome I don't like the look of the gales shown for Monday through to Tuesday morning.   I hope this stormy low positions itself more to the south before it gets here.... 

image.gif

The clouds have broken here in the last half hour but it's already getting very blustery.  The last gust had the trees bending and leaves falling furiously.  Still, we've got off lightly so far compared to previous autumns.....

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Maybe  you and us maybe in for some fun and games   fingers crossed.

arpegeuk-1-76-0.png

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Things livening up in the Aber area.Mini tornado in Aberystwyth & caravans upside down in Clarach.

 

Max gust of 34.9mph at 10.38am at this location.

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The weekend's potential is still there on the 12Z. The last dozen or so runs have been showing something similar so I can't help thinking that something is afoot. Higher parts of the Valleys up into Mid Wales, above 150m or so would be my guess, would likely see some kind of lying snow based on this output.

 

prectypeuktopo.png

12_66_preciptype.png?cb=960

Edited by Jackfrost

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6 hours ago, Sky Full said:

The clouds have broken here in the last half hour but it's already getting very blustery.  The last gust had the trees bending and leaves falling furiously.  Still, we've got off lightly so far compared to previous autumns.....

Tornados on the west coast today!  Looks like I missed the worst of it here - poor old Aber...  There are times when I don't regret living away from the coast.   There's another nasty looking low due at the weekend - I'd better tie that wheelbarrow down!

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Excellent model output again end  of  November December looks on the cold side excellent propects of a constant North to Nortwest flow best prospects of rare long wintry spell  ahead for example h500slp.png21 November wenesday 24 Novemberh500slp.png

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Is there a reason why people are seemingly so disinterested in Sunday's potential event? I realise that the details are not concrete, but surely falls of snow are possible in the areas highlighted in the charts I posted above?

I mean, if those in the MOD thread allow themselves to get excited about trends way out in FI, surely it's justified to talk about actual weather events three days away, weather events which recent output has been consistent in supporting? :D

Edited by Jackfrost

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25 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

Is there a reason why people are seemingly so disinterested in Sunday's potential event? I realise that the details are not concrete, but surely falls of snow are possible in the areas highlighted in the charts I posted above?

I mean, if those in the MOD thread allow themselves to get excited about trends way out in FI, surely it's justified to talk about actual weather events three days away, weather events in which recent output has been consistent in supporting? :D

I think people r fed up of being led up the garden path by the models only for it to downgrade at the last minute

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29 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

Is there a reason why people are seemingly so disinterested in Sunday's potential event? I realise that the details are not concrete, but surely falls of snow are possible in the areas highlighted in the charts I posted above?

I mean, if those in the MOD thread allow themselves to get excited about trends way out in FI, surely it's justified to talk about actual weather events three days away, weather events in which recent output has been consistent in supporting? :D

To many let downs in previous winters.i think it was boxing day 2 years ago models said snow,met office said snow we all here said snow and then as the front moved in dew points raised and it rained...when I see it falling I shall believe it!!

It would be lovely to see it tho and as long as charts like the ones above are posted for cold weather with snow potential it should be a real good winter this year⛷⛷⛷

Edited by dbaloo
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5 hours ago, Jackfrost said:

The weekend's potential is still there on the 12Z. The last dozen or so runs have been showing something similar so I can't help thinking that something is afoot. Higher parts of the Valleys up into Mid Wales, above 150m or so would be my guess, would likely see some kind of lying snow based on this output.

 

prectypeuktopo.png

12_66_preciptype.png?cb=960

Will be driving home back to Pontypridd through that coming back from Blackburn through the night - could be interesting! - I'm sound engineering for Tina Turner (not the real one though lol)

Edited by andymusic
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There was some very heavy hail showers here overnight. They turned everything white and stayed icy, they're only just starting to melt on the trampoline now.

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West based NAO despair yesterday to FI delight today. 

Got to love the winter model discussions. 

The more level headed contributors are definitely hinting at a very interesting December though. 

 

 

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After a bit of a wobble in last night's output, Sunday's potential event is back on:

06_51_preciptype.png?cb=93prectypeuktopo.png

It's repeated on Monday, only with Southwest England joining in this time:

06_81_preciptype.png?cb=93prectypeuktopo.png

 

What do we think? Could the snow risk maps, notorious for over-egging things, come to fruition? They've been anything if not consistent.

Edited by Jackfrost

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Had a nice icy start to the day this morning, scraping away at the windscreen - long may the cold mornings continue. 

A couple of hail showers have fallen through the day, and very chilly and blustery out there.  Not sure that snow risk map is going to come to fruition this weekend JF. Maybe 200 / 250m up may see some. Hope to be wrong though. Will be a good end to Autumn!

Think that is why its so quiet in here though, people have already given up hope before the season has even begun following the past years we have had!!

However, like many of us - been busy watching the model thread for the last few weeks, and all in all, the outcome for this upcoming winter seems to be one of optimism, with buckets of hope. 

We have had some miserable wet and warm winters of late, surely its time for our turn for a few snow days - looking forward to making a few " I can't come to work today" phone calls this winter. Can't wait - let the fun begin! 

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Had a few hail showers here in Blaenau Ffestiniog (208m asl) today but nothing out of the ordinary. I would love that snow risk map to be correct but can't remember the last time one was.

Still looking at the track of the LP it looks to be too far east and tracking ENE so will miss most of North Wales, shame. But as others have pointed out Winter has not started yet.

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I still hold that conditions are favourable for snowfall of some kind on Sunday in the parts of Wales susceptible to snow in this kind of set up. Despite the reluctance of the BBC and Met Office to use the s-word, I won't back down until I see output from different sources in agreement and strongly suggesting otherwise. :closedeyes:

Edited by Jackfrost

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4 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

I still hold that conditions are favourable for snowfall of some kind on Sunday in the parts of Wales susceptible to snow in this kind of set up and, despite the reluctance of the BBC and Met Office to use the s-word, I won't back down until I see output from various sources in broad agreement strongly suggesting otherwise. :closedeyes:

I concur!

 

Freezing today by 16:30 ice coating everything, some showers incoming be interesting to see if there's snow in them.

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15 minutes ago, Cymro said:

I concur!

 

Freezing today by 16:30 ice coating everything, some showers incoming be interesting to see if there's snow in them.

Yes, it's too marginal to dismiss out of hand. The ingredients are there; Wales stays on the cold side of the low, temperatures are likely to be no higher than 5°C on higher ground (100m+) and the intensity of the precipitation makes evaporative cooling a possibility. Perhaps Sunday really will be nothing but a standard washout, but I think the possibility is worth talking about.

Cold and icy here now. Perfect November weather.

Edited by Jackfrost

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18Z keeps Sunday's snow in roughly the same position. Barely twenty-four hours away now.

Edited by Jackfrost

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