Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[andymusic]

gfs & ECM = clear signs on the models that the easterly is still starting on or around 20th FEB - and moving forward on the models too - around a week away - in weather terms a lifetime, but again - background signals backing up this mean there is more than a chance this will happen - very cold air off the continent and big chances of a hell of a dumping at some point from there onwards - what we've had so far is the valentine's meal starters, prawn cocktail - now for the steak main course - IT's COMING - bring on the beasterly - oh and happy pancakes day - enjoy those pancakes - put some meat on your bones - it's gonna be mighty cold very shortly

 

Edited February 13, 2018 by andymusic

[andymusic]

beeb forecaster just mentioned -

IT's GONNA GET VERY VERY MUCH COLDER LATER ON IN FEBRUARY

[Wosser]

Doesn't an Easterly favour  the south east ie Dry for us ?

 

[andymusic]

15 minutes ago, Wosser said:

Doesn't an Easterly favour  the south east ie Dry for us ?

 

not necessarily - once than unbelievably cold air is in - yes the snow showers piling in over the north sea will favour the east, but fronts which appear will cross from east to west at times - but the big pay off will or could come with an atlantic front coming in from the west - hitting the extreme cold air and dumping a shed load in the west - these fronts can also come up from the south - south west too and do the same - so all to play for

Edited February 13, 2018 by andymusic

[PompeyFC]

The 12z whilst showed an easterly was not great with 850s and was quite transient. I await the pub run with anticipation lol. Not checked ECM this eve yet

[A Frayed Knot]

Sigh !! Not going to happen . Bring the spring on please ' Another boring cold and grey winter for 2018

[andymusic]

4 hours ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Sigh !! Not going to happen . Bring the spring on please ' Another boring cold and grey winter for 2018

Why do you think that? - 20th Feb again on the GFS 00z - moving forward nicely now knocking on the door at 144 hrs - and it just develops after that into a raging bone chilling easterly with loads of snowy potential at ALL Altitudes - the signals are extremely clear, like the biting cold that will be hitting you in the face shortly. JUST BELIEVE!

[PompeyFC]

2 hours ago, andymusic said:

Why do you think that? - 20th Feb again on the GFS 00z - moving forward nicely now knocking on the door at 144 hrs - and it just develops after that into a raging bone chilling easterly with loads of snowy potential at ALL Altitudes - the signals are extremely clear, like the biting cold that will be hitting you in the face shortly. JUST BELIEVE!

 

Whilst I admire your ramping Andy its not quite what the models are showing.  GFS does not even have the -5 degree 850's over us until the 23rd on latest run (00z) and consistently now the date has been pushed out to 22/23rd.  This is what I have been saying before, great synoptics but always at day 10.  I do not know where you get this 20th from - temps on the 20th are double figures on 00z run

From 23rd onwards we get the easterly in with favourable 850s but not before.   Latest ECM has no Easterly so I would not not put anymore than 50% confidence in an Easterly at this point.

Suggest you check 144 on the GFS - its high pressure over us and -5 nowhere near us, I love a good ramp but you need to look at the charts for the periods you are quoting,

[Sky Full]

Another very wet, windy, miserable morning here today.  Don't know how many days we have like this so far this winter but it's time for a change.  Whatever the SSW brings for us, be it cold and snowy or mild and fine, I just hope it quietens down the Atlantic for a couple of weeks and allows the ground dry out for while.  Everything is soaked and the roads are awash.  Enough is enough I say!!

Edited February 14, 2018 by Sky Full

[snefnug]

Frosty icy start and now a light snow shower ?❄️❄️?

[andymusic]

17 minutes ago, PompeyFC said:

 

Whilst I admire your ramping Andy its not quite what the models are showing.  GFS does not even have the -5 degree 850's over us until the 23rd on latest run (00z) and consistently now the date has been pushed out to 22/23rd.  This is what I have been saying before, great synoptics but always at day 10.  I do not know where you get this 20th from - temps on the 20th are double figures on 00z run

From 23rd onwards we get the easterly in with favourable 850s but not before.   Latest ECM has no Easterly so I would not not put anymore than 50% confidence in an Easterly at this point.

Suggest you check 144 on the GFS - its high pressure over us and -5 nowhere near us, I love a good ramp but you need to look at the charts for the periods you are quoting,

but it's when the weather direction changes from west to east - to tentative east to west beginnings - with the formation of a high pressure, yes the cold uppers aren't there then - but the easterly starts then - negative AO/NAO - weather reversal

[PompeyFC]

just because that high pressure is over us (with North Easterly winds on the 20th) you cannot then determine that the evolution will be an easterly - this far out it could go anywhere from there.  I would consider anything over T96 FI at the moment as this is such a complex setup, how many times have you seen in the model thread a shortwave pop up from nowhere to completely change the synoptics. 

Optimism is good but we have been in this position numerous times over past winters and what happened.  As I always say if it reaches the T96 timeframe that is the time to get excited,  Caution required at the moment before ramping up a major cold spell

 

 

 

[PompeyFC]

From the model thread 0 pretty much what I was getting at 

 

Now, correct me if I am wrong, but this looks like four very different solutions in nine days time although the JMA and ECM do have some agreement.  Unfortunately the UKMO does not go out this far so we can't use it to try and get some additional guidance.   I just don't understand how we can know which of these charts is the correct one, or if all of them are wrong at this distance.  Just because one might show the conditions we want to verify does not mean that is the correct prediction.  All the charts imply that cold conditions are likely but there is enough disagreement to suggest it could still go either way.  Whatever conditions I might wish for in late February, I am sitting on the fence until all the charts start to converge which might be a few days away yet.

[PompeyFC]

And a comment about the AO

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently positive and is predicted to remain positive this week before trending negative.  But the AO has not been a good predictor of temperature anomalies or weather pattern reversals so far, this winter.  

[cheshire snow]

Snowing in parts of NW England Totally unexpected and not forecast just goes to show the weather will do what it wants dispite what the models show.

C.S

[EastAnglian]

2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Snowing in parts of NW England Totally unexpected and not forecast just goes to show the weather will do what it wants dispite what the models show.

C.S

Is that on high ground by any chance, the weather forecast was for rain with hill snow so I think that was expected for this morning at least. It is snowing here  north Wales now but we are at 208m asl so not unexpected and it will turn back to rain as milder air pushes in later today. 

[cheshire snow]

1 minute ago, EastAnglian said:

Is that on high ground by any chance, the weather forecast was for rain with hill snow so I think that was expected for this morning at least. It is snowing here  north Wales now but we are at 208m asl so not unexpected and it will turn back to rain as milder air pushes in later today. 

No

Snow reported in Merseyside and also at my House 20ASL Also Southport reporting snow

C.S

[andymusic]

17 minutes ago, PompeyFC said:

And a comment about the AO

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently positive and is predicted to remain positive this week before trending negative.  But the AO has not been a good predictor of temperature anomalies or weather pattern reversals so far, this winter.  

for the moment we'll have to agree to disagree - you might be right - I might be right - but i'm happy with the thoughts I have on this right now - signals background and otherwise - but march is only a few weeks away - we'll surely know by then who was right and who wasn't

[PompeyFC]

Don't get me wrong I am desperate for it to come off, but too many times I have been left severely disappointed and embarrassed after bigging up a major event to friends only to find we get sweet FA

Here's hoping its the last blast of winter

[snefnug]

Judging from the clamorous tweeting noises outside, I anthropological would guess that the little birds would very much like it to STOP snowing thank you very much!  Just had a heavy burst with a bit of settling but lightening up now and passing over.

[andymusic]

the general feeling is that winter ain't gonna let up until well into march

[andymusic]

GFS 6z - once again a wonder to behold

right out in FI but OMG - it'll be a waiting game this one - but the easterly is getting closer from the initial high pressure - just sets the scene and then draws us closer and closer to the prize - i'm convinced this is gonna happen - it maybe far away now - but my gut feeling is telling me we got this one

[freeze for all]

57 minutes ago, andymusic said:

GFS 6z - once again a wonder to behold

right out in FI but OMG - it'll be a waiting game this one - but the easterly is getting closer from the initial high pressure - just sets the scene and then draws us closer and closer to the prize - i'm convinced this is gonna happen - it maybe far away now - but my gut feeling is telling me we got this one

11 days away m8 no chance of that verifying 

[andymusic]

48 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

11 days away m8 no chance of that verifying 

let's have 50p on it lol

[keithlucky]

Strong signals of the very cold weather kicking in around the 19th of Feb latest update from the met Dry, sometimes bright weather and light winds will predominate in the UK throughout next week, with increasing amounts of overnight frost. Rain or drizzle and stronger winds are possible at times in northwestern areas. Temperatures at the start of next week will be around average for the time of year, and probably slightly above average in the north. However, there will be a trend toward colder weather by the end of the week and into the following week, as winds turn predominately easterly. Wintry showers may develop,with the potential for some significant snowfalls focused on southern, central or eastern areas. The location and intensity of any snowfall will be uncertain until much nearer the time.

Edited February 14, 2018 by keithlucky