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I think the tumbleweed in here tonight is indicative of another poor winters night approaching!

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30 minutes ago, CRACKPOT said:

I think the tumbleweed in here tonight is indicative of another poor winters night approaching!

Yes :nea:. The 12z set of high resolution runs (Hirlam & Euro4 etc) tended to reduce the risk of snow unless you happen to live at very high altitude. Not to be a pessimist but I revise my predictions to any settling snow to above 400m + though with enough uncertainty for marginality to go either way of that estimate (ie don't be that surprised to wake up to some snow if you live in the prone lowland spots from Merthyr north.

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gfs 12 z - easterlies on - 20th feb

and ecm coming round to the idea too now

Edited by andymusic
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49 minutes ago, andymusic said:

gfs 12 z - easterlies on - 20th feb

and ecm coming round to the idea too now

At the moment same old story though. Always in FI and gets pushed further back as each run comes out. 

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10 minutes ago, PompeyFC said:

At the moment same old story though. Always in FI and gets pushed further back as each run comes out. 

nope - sticking around the 20th - so moving forward

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Thats not what I've just seen in the model output and in model thread

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And lets be fair. 20th is definitely FI lol

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12z and 18z are showing good output starting around 22nd. Then it improves rapidly. But we are talking 10 days as usual and what usually happens is they are consistent to around T168-T196 then it gets pushed further out.  It happens time and time again. But at some point I am hoping we hit the jackpot. I've seen well over 20 easterlies and raging snow on here in 5 years only for it to disappear which is why I don't take any of the noise to seriously until we have the big 3 in agreement at around T96. Its the hope that kills

Edited by PompeyFC

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1 hour ago, PompeyFC said:

12z and 18z are showing good output starting around 22nd. Then it improves rapidly. But we are talking 10 days as usual and what usually happens is they are consistent to around T168-T196 then it gets pushed further out.  It happens time and time again. But at some point I am hoping we hit the jackpot. I've seen well over 20 easterlies and raging snow on here in 5 years only for it to disappear which is why I don't take any of the noise to seriously until we have the big 3 in agreement at around T96. Its the hope that kills

I bet you never seen a full blown blizzard though ' 1978 ' was a good one . also a rain event then turning rapidly to Snaw and Black ice underneath it ' also ice rain was the new snaw back in the 1970s /1980s

Trees just Jingle with a lovely Pitch jingling sound .

Anyway back to what i was going to say ' beeb forecast got us down now for a snaw event for us here ' going by there graphics .

We shall see ' i hate there new graphics though ' stick to the Magnets please . we had proper snaw then ' when the forecasters put a magnet on your area in wales ' you knew it was gonna snaw .

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I lived in Redditch just outside Birmingham in 78. I was 4 years old but I remember it and have photos. My first snow experience

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Rain turning to sleet/wet snow here now

Edited by Cymro

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Rain now turned to heavy snow, very wet but just beginning to settle on some surfaces. :)

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Mum reporting heavy snow at Deiniolen, Gwynedd (208m). She was saying they have around 5cm there...

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This is Mynydd Llandygai which is nearby. Nothing here in Cardiff just cold rain and temperature around 4.5C

minivapour.jpg

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looks like the beeb and meto were right this time - cold rain and a little wind - dregs might produce the odd flake with the frigid uppers coming in behind but then the front will move away - oh well the easterly is still being modelled - still think this has been a very different winter to the last 3 - 4 and I still think winter will paste us good before spring comes

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Looks like the front will be well to the east by the time the -8 850hpa air comes in. Judging by the NW Radar and 850hpa overlay.

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Latest ECM and GFS have 22nd as the date for huge potential there on in

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17 minutes ago, PompeyFC said:

Latest ECM and GFS have 22nd as the date for huge potential there on in

Tbh I think it will b the same story as it's been all winter for us low lying areas, promise a snowy nirvana and deliver a cold water nirvana. It won't b very often u hear me say this but I hope it doesn't happen I'm ready for spring now

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I too am enjoying the lighter evenings already. If Feb does not deliver I want spring warmth

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46 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

Tbh I think it will b the same story as it's been all winter for us low lying areas, promise a snowy nirvana and deliver a cold water nirvana. It won't b very often u hear me say this but I hope it doesn't happen I'm ready for spring now

If and when this easterly gets here - don't you worry it'll be cold enough for snow to ALL levels - that's for certain

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2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

If and when this easterly gets here - don't you worry it'll be cold enough for snow to ALL levels - that's for certain

And not the wet big flakes we be talking loads of dry powder snow that doesn’t stick to the roof as it gets blown around and drift into 10 foot snow drifts ......... and then I woke up :rofl:

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interesting

I totally believe solar activity has a huge bearing on our weather

Sudden spike in solar activity last 10 days, Wonder if it has anything to do with MJO slowing in phase 7.  4x the time to get through it, fouled up ideas from mid Jan on when cold would return strongly east US,  appears delayed but not denied, Wild March in the making

 

he's talking about the usa there - but we are in the firing line too

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