Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[acorb]

There was snow falling at 7am, but nothing more than a slushy deposit on cars / roofs - never got cold enough here. 

Hills are white above 300m, but I doubt more than a dusting. Still, it maintains the record of snow in every month since November, which isn't bad in such a mild winter - however my daughter still awaits an excuse to dust off the sledge!

[DeepSnow]

Well despite yet having to see any snowfall yet this winter. We did have a thunderstorm last night (albeit i was driving home from work so saw it from a mile or 2 away) had mostly passed by time I got home, saw some good lightning from it though.

Doing better in the winter months for thunder and lightning than in the summer months!

[Weather roller-coaster]

What a groty day just saw on twitter snow fall in India something gone wrong big time this season been like it since September. 

[Sky Full]

As I look outside at yet another grey, dull, overcast, wet and windy morning I keep telling myself we are one more day closer to Spring.......   Everywhere outside is soaking wet, the roads are running with water in places and the trees are constantly dripping - but it will soon be March.   And then the rain will stop, the sun will come out and we will begin to enjoy a record breaking warm and dry Spring and Summer to make up for this dismal winter.....  

And then he woke up.

[ALL ABOARD]

How much elevation we thinking that we're going need for these incoming northwesterlies?? 

Cant remember ever getting a snow shower from one but I'm only a young un. 

[Sky Full]

A beautiful sunrise this morning holds a promise for a nice day ahead - maybe a couple of nice days this week.  But is this the calm before the storm?  The outlook for the weekend and beyond is for high winds and heavy rain to return to the west again so make the most of the settled weather this week.  At least we are in the tail end of winter now and Spring is just around the corner.  Can't wait!

[Sky Full]

I am definitely NOT looking forward to Sunday based on these wind gust charts from the GFS and ICON:

   

Gusts in excess of 90mph in the most exposed locations and 75mph widely even inland would definitely be damaging. If you've got anything loose or insecure now would be a good time to think about fixing it.  Don't park under any large trees either.   There's still time for this to downgrade - which is probable (one or two other models show lower wind speeds at this time).  But also time for it to upgrade - which is possible.  Anyway, one to keep an eye on especially for those on the exposed west coast - Strumble Head for example?

[wimblettben]

12 hours ago, Sky Full said:

I am definitely NOT looking forward to Sunday based on these wind gust charts from the GFS and ICON:

   

Gusts in excess of 90mph in the most exposed locations and 75mph widely even inland would definitely be damaging. If you've got anything loose or insecure now would be a good time to think about fixing it.  Don't park under any large trees either.   There's still time for this to downgrade - which is probable (one or two other models show lower wind speeds at this time).  But also time for it to upgrade - which is possible.  Anyway, one to keep an eye on especially for those on the exposed west coast - Strumble Head for example?

Problem is I have seen this exact model before and it always seems to overdo the wind speeds in any given storm.

I still think this will be a bit stronger then previous storms though as I have heard people mention that an amber warning could be released and you need at least 60 or 70mph gusts for that rather then the more common 40-50mph.

[Sky Full]

7 hours ago, wimblettben said:

Problem is I have seen this exact model before and it always seems to overdo the wind speeds in any given storm.

I still think this will be a bit stronger then previous storms though as I have heard people mention that an amber warning could be released and you need at least 60 or 70mph gusts for that rather then the more common 40-50mph.

I quite like a bit of wild weather but not when it becomes damaging or even dangerous...   I am therefore hoping for a downgrade from those earlier predictions because we have had enough trees down in this area this winter.  It will be wild enough on Sunday for me as things stand and a little less stormy would be even better!   It's also interesting that this morning the GFS was going for a high pressure build up from the end of next week after the storm passes, but now it seems to be preferring further low pressure systems to bring yet more wind and rain....  The longer range charts change from day to day and sometimes from one extreme to the other!

[Penfoel]

2 hours ago, Sky Full said:

I quite like a bit of wild weather but not when it becomes damaging or even dangerous...   I am therefore hoping for a downgrade from those earlier predictions because we have had enough trees down in this area this winter.  It will be wild enough on Sunday for me as things stand and a little less stormy would be even better!   It's also interesting that this morning the GFS was going for a high pressure build up from the end of next week after the storm passes, but now it seems to be preferring further low pressure systems to bring yet more wind and rain....  The longer range charts change from day to day and sometimes from one extreme to the other!

Well I for one hope you are right. 

Strumble Head cops some fantastic storms. Just hope the big machinery shed door holds out! 

 

[Sky Full]

I've been trying to look up (unsuccessfully) the sea level wind speed record for Wales - the Internet doesn't seem to be interested in Welsh weather records....  Apart from the records held by the obvious places like Capel Curig the only references seem to be the 109mph gust recorded at Aberporth in 2013.  Not sure if this is a record as such - does anyone know?  In the meantime, I discovered that Strumble Head boasts the most powerful lighthouse in the UK so at least you'll be easy to find after the storm!

[beatpete]

On 05/02/2020 at 08:14, Sky Full said:

A beautiful sunrise this morning holds a promise for a nice day ahead - maybe a couple of nice days this week.  But is this the calm before the storm?  The outlook for the weekend and beyond is for high winds and heavy rain to return to the west again so make the most of the settled weather this week.  At least we are in the tail end of winter now and Spring is just around the corner.  Can't wait!

Stunning earlier..... now for the storms..

[Adzyy]

Getting pretty blowy out there already! (Porthmsdog)

[Sky Full]

The worst effects of Storm Ciara will pass across Wales between 10:00 and 14:00 tomorrow.  AROME has maximum gusts between 65mph and 75mph peaking in:

Anglesey at 10:00         

Cardigan Bay at 12:00  

South Wales at 14:00    

Stronger gusts can be expected with elevation or in very exposed locations.  I would not be surprised if somewhere in Wales manages to record a gust over 90mph tomorrow.  In most places it will remain generally very windy all day and overnight into Monday morning.

[Penfoel]

3 hours ago, Sky Full said:

The worst effects of Storm Ciara will pass across Wales between 10:00 and 14:00 tomorrow.  AROME has maximum gusts between 65mph and 75mph peaking in:

Anglesey at 10:00         

Cardigan Bay at 12:00  

South Wales at 14:00    

Stronger gusts can be expected with elevation or in very exposed locations.  I would not be surprised if somewhere in Wales manages to record a gust over 90mph tomorrow.  In most places it will remain generally very windy all day and overnight into Monday morning.

Eek.

Parking tractor next to generator ready for power outage. Bound to happen, given our location. 

 Going to milk @ 5am.

Looking at our very own weather station Pwll Deri, does anyone know if that records wind speed? 

[Sky Full]

3 hours ago, Penfoel said:

Eek.

Parking tractor next to generator ready for power outage. Bound to happen, given our location. 

 Going to milk @ 5am.

Looking at our very own weather station Pwll Deri, does anyone know if that records wind speed? 

Is this any good?  

www.frixo.com/weather/pwll-deri-youth-hostel.asp

Forecasting maximum gusts of 67mph for tomorrow but we won't know for sure until it gets here!  Not sure if we can access recorded data after the event though.....  

We all ought to spare a thought for the animals living out of doors in wild weather because it can't be very pleasant for them either.  Hopefully they've got enough sense to stay clear of trees.  

Edited February 8, 2020 by Sky Full

[Jen Beachcomber]

5 hours ago, Penfoel said:

Eek.

Parking tractor next to generator ready for power outage. Bound to happen, given our location. 

 Going to milk @ 5am.

Looking at our very own weather station Pwll Deri, does anyone know if that records wind speed? 

Thinking of you Penfoel I'm sure this will be no worse than when Opelia blew in for us on the coast in 2017. 

Weather Feed - Pembroke Dock

WWW.MHPA.CO.UK

---

Weather feed for the Milford Haven Waterway at Pembroke Dock Ferry Terminal, Pembrokeshire.

This is the weather feed I use and it won't be that much different for you further up, plus it also gives 'live' wind speed. x

[The4Seasons]

7 minutes ago, Jen Beachcomber said:

Thinking of you Penfoel I'm sure this will be no worse than when Opelia blew in for us on the coast in 2017. 

Weather Feed - Pembroke Dock

WWW.MHPA.CO.UK

---

Weather feed for the Milford Haven Waterway at Pembroke Dock Ferry Terminal, Pembrokeshire.

This is the weather feed I use and it won't be that much different for you further up, plus it also gives 'live' wind speed. x

Porthcawl RNLI

WWW.PORTHCAWL-LIFEBOAT.CO.UK

---

RESPECT THE WATER IF YOU FALL INTO WATER UNEXPECTEDLY FIGHT YOUR INSTINCT. RELAX AND FLOAT ON YOUR BACK. FLOAT TO...

 This is the link to the Porthcawl lighthouse webcam. This will be pretty crazy viewing tomorrow. 

[Sky Full]

Already getting wild and noisy here - rain lashing the windows and some gusts already testing the roof.  Still got 14 more hours of this before it peaks tomorrow.     Hope I get some sleep before then.....   Have a good night, all.  

 

 

[The4Seasons]

It is easily a gale out there now. Just taken the dogs out and its roaring through the trees with some pace.

[snefnug]

Woke at 4am to sound of wind howling down valley, tea, a bit of sleep and woke again at 7am to hail slamming against windows and little bits of lightning.  Power still on, so more tea and by fire.  Crazy cat Pookie wants to go out, but no way!

[snefnug]

Quieter interlude now.  Pookie crazy cat has uncrossed legs and gone out.  Our porch door is east facing, with ancient cat flap, given that wind is west, It’s still managed to push the cat flap door in and mini flood onto tiles.

[Sky Full]

So far the most notable feature of this storm for me is it's longevity - the gales really started before 22:00 last night and have gradually ramped up since then, and we can expect to endure at least another 12 hours more.   We regularly see 40-50mph gales here and so the wind is not too serious - yet - but the gusts are probably exceeding 60mph now and the 12"+ thick branches of very large mature oak trees I can see are waving around like willows.  The rainfall so far has not been excessive by our standards either although I am sure the totals are mounting now.   However, the worst of this storm is not forecast to pass through until around midday and I am expecting to see some more violent gusts before it all blows over.  Something is definitely loose on the roof - which I hope is just the vent pipe - but there's nothing I can do about it for now!!  

[snefnug]

Ignorant me asking question here, given the radar showing clearing skies, or at least less rain, how will it be windier later. 

[Sky Full]

12 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Ignorant me asking question here, given the radar showing clearing skies, or at least less rain, how will it be windier later. 

There is a cold front out in the Irish sea moving broadly west to east and with it a line of squally winds which could bring the strongest gusts of the day.  This whole feature is going trail across the UK but it will reach you before it reaches me!  There may well be breaks in the cloud cover and some clearing in the skies afterwards although showers  are forecast to continue for another 24 hours at least.  I hope this is an accurate answer but I'm sure there are many others out there more qualified to give a clearer explanation - please feel free to correct me!