Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[coldie]

Just pinched this from the south west thread  plenty more moisture on the way just behind the front!

[Stevetynant]

2 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

Be interesting to see how this pans out, Met have me down for heavy snow, while the BBC has me down for light snow over the same time scale. So how to work out who is right if it snows, what they class as light and heavy

But the BBC site looks like it was updated recently as it was broadly similar to the Meto last night whilst the Met's hasn't changed at all in the last 24hrs - who do we have most faith in? - Actually thinking on it I have more trust in Andy than either of them 

Edited January 31, 2019 by Stevetynant

[Jackfrost]

This is the Met Office's hourly-updated forecast for Treharris in the central Valleys, my closest available forecast location. Heavy snow for most of the afternoon and evening. As always, there's some variation in hour-by-hour forecasts and the BBC's output is likely to switch back to heavy snow at some point this morning. In other words, don't take them literally or even too seriously.

Edited January 31, 2019 by Jackfrost

[Loadsa2000]

1 minute ago, Jackfrost said:

This is the Met Office's hourly-updated forecast for Treharris in the central Valleys. Heavy snow for most of the afternoon and evening. As always, there's some variation in hour-by-hour forecasts and the BBC's output is likely to switch back to heavy snow at some point this morning. In other words, don't take them literally or even too seriously.

I agree but two trusted organisations can be so different at less than 12 hours

[lindy2222]

APPROX 12 HRS OF Heavy snow clouding over here now 

[Jackfrost]

8 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

I agree but two trusted organisations can be so different at less than 12 hours

It's mostly algorithms and data rather than human input which create the hourly location forecasts, which is why there's so much divergence both between the BBC and Met Office and between locations and which is why I have more faith in what expert forecasters have to say (despite that being an unpopular view amongst some here!) There are differences in the output for Mountain Ash, Treharris, Ystrad Mynach and Bargoed, for example, despite them being so close to each other that any differences are going to be negligible to non-existent.

Edited January 31, 2019 by Jackfrost

[Pembroke Dangler]

Just seen some snow fall I’m sure just seen a couple of tiny flakes blowing in the wind 

[DeepSnow]

Temp up to 1.5C already, don't really want it to rise any further although I know it will probably go quite a bit higher yet, so maybe sleet here to start before the snow? Forecasts have been saying it's likely to do that! It is exciting though!

[Bartlett High]

Still no amber alert though! 

[bradymk]

1 minute ago, Bartlett High said:

Still no amber alert though! 

Going off past MetOffice warnings, although they can be issued anytime, they have a tendency to be issued between 10 and 11am.

therefore be interesting to see anything during that time. 

[Jackfrost]

6 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

Still no amber alert though! 

10-15 cm is 10-15 cm, regardless of whether the warning is amber or yellow! Still, I'm around 70% confident an amber warning will go out this morning for Southeast Wales and the southern part of Mid Wales.

Edited January 31, 2019 by Jackfrost

[Cwmbran Eira]

 

[bradymk]

Pembrokeshire could be the place today.

If it does turn to snow there, higher areas in Pembrokeshire could actually see the highest totals today.

latest ICON has the highest precip totals and most intense precipitation there around 17:00.

Latest Icon shows second line of precip (although lighter) then moving into South Wales early hours of Friday.

[thetipster]

latest  ultra high res snow acc

[bradymk]

Just now, thetipster said:

latest  ultra high res snow acc

Is that 6z or 00z Tipster?

[dyl232]

1 minute ago, bradythemole said:

Is that 6z or 00z Tipster?

You have these for the north?

2 minutes ago, thetipster said:

latest  ultra high res snow acc

 

[Frozone]

6 minutes ago, Cwmbran Eira said:

 

I'll be happy if it pans out like this!!

[thetipster]

1 minute ago, bradythemole said:

Is that 6z or 00z Tipster?

00z next run 06z after 10am

[lindy2222]

Dark clouds above us now...................

[Blackjack]

6 minutes ago, thetipster said:

latest  ultra high res snow acc

You can stick me on that map if you like. 

[LJ1224]

6 minutes ago, thetipster said:

latest  ultra high res snow acc

That's it. I'm moving

[Frozone]

1 minute ago, LJ1224 said:

That's it. I'm moving

Me too!  That's pretty much exactly what happened last year 

[lindy2222]

Might have to get more supplies.....

[Loadsa2000]

6 minutes ago, LJ1224 said:

That's it. I'm moving

its pretty grey around you, its the heat off the steel works

[ancientsolar]

I need to get supplies, some popcorn and caramel, then i'll sit in the window and watch