Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[NoTraction]

My best guess Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire, Cardiganshire, and south of M4 yellow warning 3 to 10cm 

Further east you are so Cardiff area more chance of being in the amber zone

Valleys and Mid Wales up to about Builth Wells, Amber Warning 10 to 20 cm may update to red in the morning if still taking similar track as it will be disruptive in evening rush hour and therefore dangerous for those on the roads trying to get home

Further north remain in yellow warning as uncertainty of northern extent.and less intensity.

However these are based on computer Algorithms and are just a good guess/ forecast.... so as long as you are in a warning area dont be surprised to get more or less as the frontal system will do as it wants not what its told.....

further north, further south, east, west, pivot, stall, intensify, fizzle out in parts etc you get my drift... who knows? Nobody!!!!

looking great at the minute for tomorrow 

[PsychedelicTony]

20 minutes ago, Buddiefan said:

Yes,you have a good stream of showers set up there. Just missing the island unfortunately

Has been backbuilding since 9am. Gone very light now, think it's running out of steam. But still, can't grumble

[keithlucky]

Just seen latest  from the met ,Snow stating around 2pm at least 8hrs of snow with the front pivoting and weakening ,head the valleys seems to be Prime spot.No relenting ,in this cold spell in 7 days time The beast is back!!!

 

 

[LJ1224]

Met office says mostly rain now for Port Talbot I shall keep everything crossed, though. Pictures of other people's snow will help take the edge off my depression so please send lots tomorrow!

[whiskers]

Looking in the mad thread they are all saying that it’s further south now ,does anyone know? 

Its so confusing!

[mikeocarroll]

3 minutes ago, whiskers said:

Looking in the mad thread they are all saying that it’s further south now ,does anyone know? 

Its so confusing!

No real change. People just over-analyse every run ("50 miles north", "50 miles south"). Expect you will get snow in Blackwood. Down on the south coast it is much more marginal and there won't be any certainty over the rain / snow boundary other than looking out the window tomorrow.

[Blackjack]

Looks like i'm in the firing line what ever happens. May even get to use my new crampons on the Blacks come Friday.

 

[andymusic]

1 hour ago, NoTraction said:

My best guess Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire, Cardiganshire, and south of M4 yellow warning 3 to 10cm 

Further east you are so Cardiff area more chance of being in the amber zone

Valleys and Mid Wales up to about Builth Wells, Amber Warning 10 to 20 cm may update to red in the morning if still taking similar track as it will be disruptive in evening rush hour and therefore dangerous for those on the roads trying to get home

Further north remain in yellow warning as uncertainty of northern extent.and less intensity.

However these are based on computer Algorithms and are just a good guess/ forecast.... so as long as you are in a warning area dont be surprised to get more or less as the frontal system will do as it wants not what its told.....

further north, further south, east, west, pivot, stall, intensify, fizzle out in parts etc you get my drift... who knows? Nobody!!!!

looking great at the minute for tomorrow 

and some drifting - if you get my drift lol

euro4 snow accumulation latest - beacons and surrounding areas looking target for biggest falls up to 20cms or more

 

[Selliso]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

and some drifting - if you get my drift lol

euro4 snow accumulation latest - beacons and surrounding areas looking target for biggest falls up to 20cms or more

 

Wonder how long until an amber warning... The patchy nature of the ppn must be giving them a real headache.

It could be a big win for some, bust for others despite conditions being favourable well down into the valleys, and almost to the coast! 

Not much for the North on Thursday, but we've done quite well from showers over the last 12 hours up near Conwy. 

[LJ1224]

5 minutes ago, andymusic said:

and some drifting - if you get my drift lol

euro4 snow accumulation latest - beacons and surrounding areas looking target for biggest falls up to 20cms or more

 

Looks like the dreaded snow shadow for Port Talbot and Swansea is back. That's it. I'm moving! 

[dyl232]

Nothing for north wales tomorrow now then

[andymusic]

6 minutes ago, dyl232 said:

Nothing for north wales tomorrow now then

possibly not tomorrow although the front could still make it there but Friday could also offer some potential too

[Stevetynant]

2 hours ago, CRACKPOT said:

You reckon we still game on then Steve?

John

Now or never I recon for this year  John  -you'll have a few cm's more than me no doubt but I've booked Friday off to wander about taking photos so fingers crossed

[Stevetynant]

I never knew what they meant by the Carmarthen snow shield until witnessing it myself when travelling home to the Valleys from Newquay in Ceredigion last year. We left Newquay in horizontal blizzard conditions during Beast Mark 2 last year - eventually got to Carmarthen and it was a lovely day - no hint of what was happening everywhere else in Wales- by the time we got to Swansea it was full on Snow Fest again and a go slow on the M4 - Fingers crossed for our snow deprived friends in the West this time :0)

[bradymk]

First models are out for 12z

icon steady.

Arpege 

both models decreasing intensity of precip slightly compared to earlier output but both still look good for South and east Wales in particular.

 

 

[bradymk]

Position of the precipitation on MetOffice UKV tomorrow at 3pm.

[CRACKPOT]

27 minutes ago, Stevetynant said:

Now or never I recon for this year  John  -you'll have a few cm's more than me no doubt but I've booked Friday off to wander about taking photos so fingers crossed

Steve I hope so mate. I think we might be on a par though I'm not a massive amount higher. I'm in tomorrow, I've moved training from Cardiff to Neath as most staff live there. Fingers crossed for travellers back to Cardiff but they should make it back. I'm on 3pm train outta there!!( Cardiff)

[andymusic]

Thursday 3pm

Thursday 6pm

Thursday 9pm

Thursday/Friday midnight

Friday 3am

Friday 6am

that's 6z today - let's see how the update has changed by just after 5pm later

[Jayfromcardiff]

9 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Position of the precipitation on MetOffice UKV tomorrow at 3pm.

We'll see what happens tomorrow Derek even tweeted that one model goes for 7cm low ground Cardiff!

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

Thursday 3pm

Thursday 6pm

Thursday 9pm

Thursday/Friday midnight

Friday 3am

Friday 6am

that's 6z today - let's see how the update has changed by just after 5pm later

Good that it's arriving after dark too mate. Perfect timing.

[andymusic]

latest gfs coming now goes for dumpings between 12pm and 3pm tomorrow and keeps 850s nice and cold

edit - 3pm to 6pm further dumpings from a strong looking front

Edited January 30, 2019 by andymusic

[andymusic]

gfs 12z - 6pm till 9pm - strong front - front starts pivoting right over south wales - more dumpings

[andymusic]

gfs12z - 9pm to 12pm - more of mid-wales joins in the dumpings - front begins to weaken slightly - cold 850s hardly moving

[andymusic]

gfs 12z - midnight to 3am - more of north wales gets in on the snow again with mid-wales

[andymusic]

gfs 12z - 3am - 6am light snow throughout wales just topping us up

Edited January 30, 2019 by andymusic