Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[keithlucky]

6 hours ago, Jackfrost said:

I hate to be the voice of reason nobody asked for but this is a great example of why we really need to put less faith in model output outside of a reliable timeframe and (not to have a dig at anybody in particular) those whose uncontrolled ramping is 90% of the time going to lead to disappointment. The Beast combining with Storm Emma would have been a fairly rare event in a pre-climate change winter, and with a warming climate it was never likely to repeat itself this year. It'll happen again but we'll need to wait. That said, some colder weather and some possible wintriness is likely over the next week, and after that we'll have to wait and see.

I honestly find our climate too benign to take much interest anymore. Having spent November in Montréal and experiencing -16C temperatures and 30cm of snow (in November!), I find chasing the odd snowflake here a bit pointless. Thanks to the benign climate, though, we live in a wonderfully green country which is full of history that you can enjoy at all times of the year, so why not forget about the weather for a bit and get out and enjoy some low-season wintry walks, something you can't so easily do in much of the northern hemisphere in winter?

We know that models output is just a help in weather forecasting (programmed by humans)but just like the fisherman who goes back to the the same spot week in and week out, to catch old pikey,and fails, the fun is in the chase! what's annoying is people who say it's your fault you wrong we just enjoying the chase.The met office accuracy is  joke past a  few days ,there view on climate change is fantasy ,because simply put ,we got no chance of predicting weather 2 days away or 2years or 20years from now.So enjoy the chase !!!

Edited January 20, 2019 by keithlucky

[Jackfrost]

27 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

We know that models output is just a help in weather forecasting (programmed by humans)but just like the fisherman who goes back to the the same spot week in and week out, to catch old pikey,and fails, the fun is in the chase! what's annoying is people who say it's your fault you wrong we just enjoying the chase.The met office accuracy is  joke past a  few days ,there view on climate change is fantasy ,because simply put ,we got no chance of predicting weather 2 days away or 2years or 20years from now.So enjoy the chase !!!

The issue is that I get the impression that many people, especially in the model output threads, get genuinely down when the models swing away from cold solutions. In the past, a change in model output for the worse genuinely had the power to ruin my evening and even last February I was bracing for crushing disappointment if Storm Emma failed to materialise; such things have happened too many times in the past.

I think it's a bit silly to dismiss the Met Office's accuracy and view on climate change as a joke or fantasy, though. They're one of the oldest and most respected meteorological organisations in the world dealing with one of the most notoriously changeable climates (i.e. Britain's). Meanwhile, climate change study is still an evolving science and it's important to remember that weather and climate are different. We may well have a repeat of 1979, 1963 or 1947 at some point, along with other severe winter months, but that will be within the overall trend of warmer temperatures both here and globally. Sad but true.

Edited January 20, 2019 by Jackfrost

[keithlucky]

I don't want to say much about Global warming of climate change change because it's just natural warming after an ice age ,there's a lot of thought we about to go into LIA.But that's a debate for another day.

8 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

The issue is that I get the impression that many people, especially in the model output threads, get genuinely down when the models swing away from cold solutions. In the past, a change in model output for the worse genuinely had the power to ruin my evening and even last February I was bracing for crushing disappointment if Storm Emma failed to materialise; such things have happened too many times in the past.

I think it's a bit silly to dismiss the Met Office's accuracy and view on climate change as a joke or fantasy, though. They're one of the oldest and most respected meteorological organisations in the world dealing with one of the most notoriously changeable climates (i.e. Britain's). Meanwhile, climate change study is still an evolving science and it's important to remember that weather and climate are different. We may well have a repeat of 1979, 1963 or 1947 at some point, along with other severe winter months, but that will be within the overall trend of warmer temperatures both here and globally. Sad but true.

 

[PompeyFC]

Apart from altitude don't see any snow next Tuesday looking at wobbles. 

[snowy36]

1 hour ago, keithlucky said:

We know that models output is just a help in weather forecasting (programmed by humans)but just like the fisherman who goes back to the the same spot week in and week out, to catch old pikey,and fails, the fun is in the chase! what's annoying is people who say it's your fault you wrong we just enjoying the chase.The met office accuracy is  joke past a  few days ,there view on climate change is fantasy ,because simply put ,we got no chance of predicting weather 2 days away or 2years or 20years from now.So enjoy the chase !!!

I agree , the computers and humans are having a awful start to the year weather wise . They can fudge the numbers all they like but they are miles off , all these stupid weekly and monthly forecast are not worth the paper they are written on and people think its whats actually going to happen especially in the other threads . I had a few days off looking at the charts this week and when i came back on friday tea time i couldn't believe the hype that was in the main group and i looked at the charts and came in here and said its not going to happen . There a good few people in the main group  who thinks they are the top forecasters ( and know whats going to happen) , another thing i don't get is the hype these SSW gets , they are fairly new things in as much as we found out about them and i think we still have no idea how they truly effect our weather.  I also agree with Joe, only in the last two or so years it doesn't effect me if these things ( snow and that) dont happen, i used to go on a bit off a weather downer when they used to go pear shaped but i look back and think of all the times they came off and i lived through the 70's and 80's when we had good winter weather . Its just the weather and there are more important things in our lives to worry about.

[snowy36]

58 minutes ago, PompeyFC said:

Apart from altitude don't see any snow next Tuesday looking at wobbles. 

The GFS lead people down the garden path , have a look at the temps compared to the other models and they are colder and thats why they showed more snow in their model. I think if u in mid wales u might get some .  So far we've had a failed Greenie and now a failed Beastly , i think one of these will hit the window sometime in the next 4 weeks . I wish every time there's a chance of cold/snow people stop hyping them up like something from the past, enjoy what u going to get and stop trying to compare them .

Edited January 20, 2019 by snowy36

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, PompeyFC said:

Apart from altitude don't see any snow next Tuesday looking at wobbles. 

Latest outputs have got a cold air sitting over UK ,with a front approaching Monday into Tuesday,heavy rain moving in ,turning to snow over  higher ground with wet snow mixed in the heavier burst any were over Wales,showers move in behind the front heavy winter showers turning to snow especially over North Wales, Still stuck in a cold regime ,I still expect HPressure to build from the N east as often happens come February

Edited January 20, 2019 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

10 hours ago, snowy36 said:

Andy what happened to all our snow!!!!

ok models have backtracked and caught many of us out it seems - will now only be another chilly 2 - 3 day spell - then a move back to slightly milder temps - we're gonna just have to be a little more patient - all models were showing some truly amazing output last week that many, even the meto/beeb were being dragged into the thought that "snowmageddon" was looking likely - I did say though that last years beasterlies seemed a lot easier to see even two weeks out, when this set up seemed a lot messier, and just kept coming forward at us till eventually they hit the target big time - I think if I remember rightly just before that spring temps were all the rage and everyone dismissed me as "mad" then that we'd have anything like what we got - but it still happened - seems the cold of our current winters would definitely seem to want to appear at the end of the season - so we have Feb/March to play for - some lucky folk will see some wintriness in the next couple of days - mainly with altitude but not exclusively

[andymusic]

1 hour ago, snowy36 said:

I agree , the computers and humans are having a awful start to the year weather wise . They can fudge the numbers all they like but they are miles off , all these stupid weekly and monthly forecast are not worth the paper they are written on and people think its whats actually going to happen especially in the other threads . I had a few days off looking at the charts this week and when i came back on friday tea time i couldn't believe the hype that was in the main group and i looked at the charts and came in here and said its not going to happen . There a good few people in the main group  who thinks they are the top forecasters ( and know whats going to happen) , another thing i don't get is the hype these SSW gets , they are fairly new things in as much as we found out about them and i think we still have no idea how they truly effect our weather.  I also agree with Joe, only in the last two or so years it doesn't effect me if these things ( snow and that) dont happen, i used to go on a bit off a weather downer when they used to go pear shaped but i look back and think of all the times they came off and i lived through the 70's and 80's when we had good winter weather . Its just the weather and there are more important things in our lives to worry about.

I'd agree with you to some point - but for some of us in Wales who do live on the top of mountains in exposed out of the way locations - this information is crucial to get prepped if something major is about to hit - as even with 4x4 vehicles etc which can't always get you out of trouble - things can get very tricky - it's good to know you can get stocked up when necessary and "ride out the snow storm" - if you know it's about to hit!

[andymusic]

3 hours ago, Jackfrost said:

The issue is that I get the impression that many people, especially in the model output threads, get genuinely down when the models swing away from cold solutions. In the past, a change in model output for the worse genuinely had the power to ruin my evening and even last February I was bracing for crushing disappointment if Storm Emma failed to materialise; such things have happened too many times in the past.

I think it's a bit silly to dismiss the Met Office's accuracy and view on climate change as a joke or fantasy, though. They're one of the oldest and most respected meteorological organisations in the world dealing with one of the most notoriously changeable climates (i.e. Britain's). Meanwhile, climate change study is still an evolving science and it's important to remember that weather and climate are different. We may well have a repeat of 1979, 1963 or 1947 at some point, along with other severe winter months, but that will be within the overall trend of warmer temperatures both here and globally. Sad but true.

it's not about being a joke or fantasy - the met office after all are a "government" dept - and as we know gov like to skew stats for there own use to persuade us or use excuses to tax us more for alsorts of things - I'm not saying that we don't need to clean the planet up of plastics and our effect we do have on our environment - I just don't think we have as much an effect as the gov would make us think we do - and as climate change is still in it's infancy like ssw science - I don't think it can be proved right or wrong just yet - glaciologists have just back tracked a huge theory that we'd be 6ft under in water globally in a very short space of time because the "glaciers are melting" are now saying if there's a problem at all it'll be into the next century and only a 1ft not 6ft - disproving a well respected pair of scientists models - yes we've had some warmer weather - and some damned colder too - dec 2010 coldest for 100 years - these spikes in weather and climate happen naturally and have been doing so for millions of years - and yet the scientists would have you believe we are changing the climate in the last 200 years - we are ants on the earth - the sun governs how hot/cold we may get - the planet is after all circling the sun in the "life" zone - ie ideal conditions for life to flourish - further away it would be "too cold" closer to the sun - "too hot" - so what does that tell you about how the sun's effects on the earth have a big effect on our weather and climate - hopefully we will more fully understand soon enough how that really effects our weather in winter/spring/summer and autumn - with regards to solar flares and solar minima and maxima sunspots etc -

Anyway let's see if the end of our winter can still produce a little snow to satisfy us all - have a lovely sunday

[andymusic]

some beafy snow showers showing up for Tuesday from the north west - will really get going in the afternoon

 

Edited January 20, 2019 by andymusic

[snowy36]

31 minutes ago, andymusic said:

I'd agree with you to some point - but for some of us in Wales who do live on the top of mountains in exposed out of the way locations - this information is crucial to get prepped if something major is about to hit - as even with 4x4 vehicles etc which can't always get you out of trouble - things can get very tricky - it's good to know you can get stocked up when necessary and "ride out the snow storm" - if you know it's about to hit!

But people are hyping up these things from like 7 days +, if it was say 3 days away and they failed then fair enough . I live on the top of the Bwl so we have our own problems when we get hit hard.   I think snow chasing is a bit of fun but people take it way to serious in the main group , i hope none of them own a cat because it would be kicked a lot.

[Day_9]

Cardiff looking nailed on to see a sprinkle mon into tues.  brief ‘mild’ (less cold) interlude next weekend before temps nosedive - and look - double figures in the snow row from semi-reliable all the way to the end.

[coldie]

Not much forecast for Monday night into Tuesday now either, what an absolute farce of a winter.

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, coldie said:

Not much forecast for Monday night into Tuesday now either, what an absolute farce of a winter.

Funny  thing is last winter was not meant to be as cold a winter but was a million times better and here in the midlands it was the best winter since 2012 2013!!dozens of really good snow events aswell!!this winter has just been so bland its unbelievable!!

[andymusic]

55 minutes ago, Magic Trichs said:

Cardiff looking nailed on to see a sprinkle mon into tues.  brief ‘mild’ (less cold) interlude next weekend before temps nosedive - and look - double figures in the snow row from semi-reliable all the way to the end.

reason why meto aren't backing down for the moment either - the generally cold to very cold outlook is still relevant and on the table

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Funny  thing is last winter was not meant to be as cold a winter but was a million times better and here in the midlands it was the best winter since 2012 2013!!dozens of really good snow events aswell!!this winter has just been so bland its unbelievable!!

but happened last year just outside of dec - feb winter borders - easterlies really hit hard in March 2018 - which is why I also think the best maybe just around the corner and yet to come

[freeze for all]

It still gets me that people r relying on charts 5 days + away, and as for the meto need to b putting out early warnings for people on hills etc is a joke. We have the facilities and technology  these days which we didn't years ago and unless we have something like we've never experienced before we will manage. I'm not saying the weather isn't going to get colder but it will b your average winter afair over the next week

[coldie]

10 minutes ago, shaky said:

Funny  thing is last winter was not meant to be as cold a winter but was a million times better and here in the midlands it was the best winter since 2012 2013!!dozens of really good snow events aswell!!this winter has just been so bland its unbelievable!!

Agreed mate storm Emma produced the most snow I've ever seen in my lifetime and that windchill was just something else! Won't get snow like that again for a very long time. Even the slider low we had back last December gave us around 8 inches, it must have give you just under a foot in your neck of the woods? 

Edited January 20, 2019 by coldie

[andymusic]

latest from meto for tuesday

Frequent heavy snow showers, with a risk of thunder, will lead to accumulations of snow, especially on tops. Paths likely obscured and icy. Some brighter spells between snow showers, but staying cold, with a wind chill. Freezing levels 200m, but snow likely to fall down to valley level during heavy showers.

[shaky]

8 minutes ago, coldie said:

Agreed mate storm Emma produced the most snow I've ever seen in my lifetime and that windchill was just something else! Won't get snow like that again for a very long time. Even the slider low we had back last December gave us around 8 inches, it must have give you just under a foot in your neck of te woods? 

Got about 20cms of snow here!!!some parts even more!!at the perfect time of winter aswell shortest days and longest nigghts!!nothing like having snowfall in the heart of december!!

[snowy36]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Got about 20cms of snow here!!!some parts even more!!at the perfect time of winter aswell shortest days and longest nigghts!!nothing like having snowfall in the heart of december!!

I went passed church stretton more than 12  times last winter on the train and there was always snow on the ground , it was very impressive.

 

[andymusic]

latest for midnight Monday gfs 0.25 12z still going for some kind of back edge snow event on the front over Wales

with plenty of snow showers packing in behind for Tuesday - especially for the north and west of Wales but not exclusively

Edited January 20, 2019 by andymusic

[dyl232]

8 minutes ago, andymusic said:

latest for midnight Monday gfs 0.25 12z still going for some kind of back edge snow event on the front over Wales

with plenty of snow showers packing in behind for Tuesday - especially for the north and west of Wales but not exclusively

Is this for high grounds Andy?

[A Frayed Knot]

27 minutes ago, dyl232 said:

Is this for high grounds Andy?

No @dyl232 going by them charts @andymusic posted Snow at lower levels .