Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[andymusic]

On ‎09‎/‎03‎/‎2018 at 21:26, Missdolly said:

Anybody else been in the mad thread ? Beastly easterly's round 2 maybe ??

Yep just looking now - ECM not showing it but GFS on the money for Siberia to return as from a week tomorrow - we're going to have to put up with the flippin freezing cold again - and much more snow too - not showing the snow yet - but I should imagine that'll come back too - OMG - another nightmare scenario - and there's me I just got a refund on our camping gas cookers from Halfords because I thought we were out of the woods - guess I'll have to go get them again lol - sorry I haven't been on much - been really busy with this THE VOICE UK ITV project - working for the TV series for next year - Auditions Showcase at The Heritage Park Hotel, Nr. Pontypridd , this Thursday 15th March 2018 - up to 60 contestants in front of 2 x lots of 200 live audience in the Rhodda Suite there - you can get tickets for the audience if you'd like to go at - www.lizabaker.co.uk/ticket-line - I'm one of the organisers and I'll be doing sound for all the contestants on the day too. - https://www.facebook.com/events/1124480207692338/

Edited March 11, 2018 by andymusic

[lindy2222]

9 minutes ago, andymusic said:

Yep just looking now - ECM not showing it but GFS on the money for Siberia to return as from a week tomorrow - we're going to have to put up with the flippin freezing cold again - and much more snow too - not showing the snow yet - but I should imagine that'll come back too - OMG - another nightmare scenario - and there's me I just got a refund on our camping gas cookers from Halfords because I thought we were out of the woods - guess I'll have to go get them again lol - sorry I haven't been on much - been really busy with this THE VOICE UK ITV project - working for the TV series for next year - Auditions Showcase at The Heritage Park Hotel, Nr. Pontypridd , this Thursday 15th March 2018 - up to 60 contestants in front of 2 x lots of 200 live audience in the Rhodda Suite there - you can get tickets for the audience if you'd like to go at - www.lizabaker.co.uk/ticket-line - I'm one of the organisers and I'll be doing sound for all the contestants on the day too. - https://www.facebook.com/events/1124480207692338/

I noticed on Gavs vids he was talking about round 2 maybe .......

[andymusic]

Just now, lindy2222 said:

I noticed on Gavs vids he was talking about round 2 maybe .......

yep ecm not showing - but gfs is totally commited - fI - but bringing it slowly ever closer - beeb forecaster as hinted at colder weather coming back today too - I think they are getting ready for - Siberia fights back lol part two lol  -   and we all know what that means - even though the snow ain't being shown you can guarantee pretty much another dumping may well be on the cards - crikey what a winter we've had this year - sort of proper lol

[andymusic]

On ‎08‎/‎03‎/‎2018 at 07:19, JamesL said:

I think hindsight is a great thing. We can all look back at the models and see what they were showing BUT how often have they come to fruition? The Met were talking about a cold spell in the monthly outlook a couple of weeks prior but until they are fairly sure what the broad Synoptics are they can't just panic people Andy and go mainstream. That's just how it is. 

In an a ideal world we would all know (with certainty) when a high impact event will hit but in the chaotic world of weather it's just not possible. 

We will agree to disagree. Imo people were given a heads up a week or more before the events last week through forecasts and the media. 

Sometimes the responsibility has to lie with the public. There will always be those idiots that go out no matter what. That's life. 99% of people took the warnings seriously. 

And I will say again. The Met, BBC and other media outlets did a great job throughout. Hey even the Express got it right lol! 

now you are talking silly - the papers talk up the blizzards when there are absolutely no chance of it happening just to sell papers and get people to click on their pages on the net to earn ad revenue - but Derek WAS NOT COMMITED TO THE COLD AND SNOW THE FRIDAY BEFORE THE LAST EVENT - HE DID NOT WARN UNTIL THE ACTUAL WEEK OF THE EVENT (so only a few days notice - not enough for the elderly/infirm to prepare for something like that) - BUT THEY KNEW BEFORE THAT, THAT SIBERIA WAS COMING AND HOW COLD AND NASTY THIS COULD/WOULD BE - AND FROM THE LOOKS OF THE GFS AGAIN IT'S GONNA DO IT AGAIN A WEEK TOMORROW! - I wonder if Derek will wake up this time for this one - I think he might because I have my inclings and I haven't been on his twitter acc, that he was abused by some people in Wales and his boss give him a dressing down - because he seems to be different somehow on his forecasts the last few days, in fact he and the meto went overboard with the snow the other night, like a spring back reaction - making sure as many as possible knew - but in fact this time I only had rain - and again I knew that was gonna happen to cause it just didn't feel cold enough - HE's maybe a little more concerned he does his job better now - it could be on the line if he just can't keep up - after all he only does one job - I work in music do numerous jobs within music - and still am able to forecast ahead of him and warn when we are gonna get bad weather - and my serious warning that went out was shared on facebbook I think about 400 times - amazing - that was the one I wanted all of you to copy and paste into your own facebooks - at least it might help one or two from seriously hurting themselves! - and i'll do it again if it means saving someone's life

Edited March 11, 2018 by andymusic

[andymusic]

On ‎08‎/‎03‎/‎2018 at 08:14, Snowyowl9 said:

Next to nothing here marginal isn`t the word to use.

no need for the warning down south except for the heads of the valleys really and Brecon Beacons

[andymusic]

still got snow shoulders on the mountains here - sure sign they could be waiting for the next dumping - and Siberia is coming back to haunt us again - THE COLD STRIKES BACK lol

[lindy2222]

12 minutes ago, andymusic said:

still got snow shoulders on the mountains here - sure sign they could be waiting for the next dumping - and Siberia is coming back to haunt us again - THE COLD STRIKES BACK lol

Still got snow in garden and roads etc.......

[JamesL]

28 minutes ago, andymusic said:

now you are talking silly - the papers talk up the blizzards when there are absolutely no chance of it happening just to sell papers and get people to click on their pages on the net to earn ad revenue - but Derek WAS NOT COMMITED TO THE COLD AND SNOW THE FRIDAY BEFORE THE LAST EVENT - HE DID NOT WARN UNTIL THE ACTUAL WEEK OF THE EVENT (so only a few days notice - not enough for the elderly/infirm to prepare for something like that) - BUT THEY KNEW BEFORE THAT, THAT SIBERIA WAS COMING AND HOW COLD AND NASTY THIS COULD/WOULD BE - AND FROM THE LOOKS OF THE GFS AGAIN IT'S GONNA DO IT AGAIN A WEEK TOMORROW! - I wonder if Derek will wake up this time for this one - I think he might because I have my inclings and I haven't been on his twitter acc, that he was abused by some people in Wales and his boss give him a dressing down - because he seems to be different somehow on his forecasts the last few days, in fact he and the meto went overboard with the snow the other night, like a spring back reaction - making sure as many as possible knew - but in fact this time I only had rain - and again I knew that was gonna happen to cause it just didn't feel cold enough - HE's maybe a little more concerned he does his job better now - it could be on the line if he just can't keep up - after all he only does one job - I work in music do numerous jobs within music - and still am able to forecast ahead of him and warn when we are gonna get bad weather - and my serious warning that went out was shared on facebbook I think about 400 times - amazing - that was the one I wanted all of you to copy and paste into your own facebooks - at least it might help one or two from seriously hurting themselves! - and i'll do it again if it means saving someone's life

We will agree to disagree andy. ?? And the Express comment was very tongue in cheek. 

Edited March 11, 2018 by JamesL

[Snowyowl9]

Despite it being very mild yesterday,the snow drifts hasn`t thawed as fast the temps suggest.

The deepest snow drifts depending on the outlook should be here till april.

But every chance of another bitter easterly more in the line of inbetween the end of February 2006 and march 2013 this time.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=eu&t=8d

[Missdolly]

I'm sure there's an old wives tale about lying snow is a sign of more to come ? 

Let's just wait and see then ! 

[Jayfromcardiff]

There's still quite a bit of snow in the lanes here around 2ft piled up and Asda carpark has around a 4 or 5ft pile of snow.

[Seasonal weather required]

7 hours ago, andymusic said:

now you are talking silly - the papers talk up the blizzards when there are absolutely no chance of it happening just to sell papers and get people to click on their pages on the net to earn ad revenue - but Derek WAS NOT COMMITED TO THE COLD AND SNOW THE FRIDAY BEFORE THE LAST EVENT - HE DID NOT WARN UNTIL THE ACTUAL WEEK OF THE EVENT (so only a few days notice - not enough for the elderly/infirm to prepare for something like that) - BUT THEY KNEW BEFORE THAT, THAT SIBERIA WAS COMING AND HOW COLD AND NASTY THIS COULD/WOULD BE - AND FROM THE LOOKS OF THE GFS AGAIN IT'S GONNA DO IT AGAIN A WEEK TOMORROW! - I wonder if Derek will wake up this time for this one - I think he might because I have my inclings and I haven't been on his twitter acc, that he was abused by some people in Wales and his boss give him a dressing down - because he seems to be different somehow on his forecasts the last few days, in fact he and the meto went overboard with the snow the other night, like a spring back reaction - making sure as many as possible knew - but in fact this time I only had rain - and again I knew that was gonna happen to cause it just didn't feel cold enough - HE's maybe a little more concerned he does his job better now - it could be on the line if he just can't keep up - after all he only does one job - I work in music do numerous jobs within music - and still am able to forecast ahead of him and warn when we are gonna get bad weather - and my serious warning that went out was shared on facebbook I think about 400 times - amazing - that was the one I wanted all of you to copy and paste into your own facebooks - at least it might help one or two from seriously hurting themselves! - and i'll do it again if it means saving someone's life

Andy , do you think Derek should apologise to the nation at prime time 6pm news ? or at least a formal type apology on Twitter ?.

What does he have to do ,if at all possible to gain a pardon from yourself ?

I heard a rumour that perhaps Derek and a few others in the news team were doing something or other with “ the voice “ ...

What would you do if you seen him knocking about there in person ?? you wouldn’t sabotage anything when he went on stage would you ? ...

Whatever would Derek sing anyway ?

Mayve he is a Sinatra type” I did it my way “ kind of man ? Or perhaps he’s into 90s grunge kurt cobain smells like teen spirit - ———-yes i can picture Derek in the mosh pit losing the plot ..

Dereks secret other life who ever would have thought that .....

 

Anyway , hope we don’t get a 2nd beast as yesterday was pleasantly mild ...

Oh well , must dash , need to get my medication.

 

[keithlucky]

Pretty cold outlook come next weekend with around a 10 c  temperature drop with a cold weekend .not surpring really with a low solar activity. forecasted solar output to continues very low right to next winter

Edited March 11, 2018 by keithlucky

[Snowyowl9]

Spring is the time when the atlantic drops off anyway,easterlies are much more likely in march and april than January,when the jet is in full swing.

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

Temperatures reached 13C in Porthcawl  for a while before some torrential downpours arrived yesterday afternoon, that's very mild considering A: it's only March and B: the sea is now at its coldest which usually means the coasts are colder than inland. I just wish the low pressure that's been stuck to the SW of us since snow storm Emma would finally move away elsewhere to allow some drier Springlike days as I've never known such a wet first half of March  

[bradymk]

Time to keep a close eye on the models again this week. Still too far out at the moment but increasing signs of another cold spell from the east starting next weekend. Unlikely to be as severe as the last one because of the time of year now but needs watching for sure. 

[Seasonal weather required]

BFTE2 - not interested - go away your not welcome .

Guaranteed this time Swansea will get hit with heavy precipitation from a front hitting the cold like last time - however you just know that this will be heavy sleet - oh so so close but yet another epic fail it will be .

Further east and north and obviously for the valley wallers it’s just pure greed and excess as they get another pasting .

Im not scarred by the last most epic of epic fails of all time .... honest ...........

 

Anyway BBC app shows a blizzard out of nowhere at 0700 in mumbles next Monday.

Nothing before and nothing after .

So anyone planning on one of those tiny cups of coffee that you can’t even get a finger into the handle in Verdis next Monday morning be warned .

 

All eyes on Derek now , the pressure is really on this time .

I think he hoped this would just fade away but here we are again with Dekka staring down the barrel ...

Andy , I think you should contact BBC Wales and offer to do the forecast in place of Derek ? 

For me - BFTE2 get lost your not welcome 

[EastAnglian]

27 minutes ago, Seasonal weather required said:

BFTE2 - not interested - go away your not welcome .

How can you tell that will be a blizzard from a simple graphic. Looks more like a shower to me and with max temp of 5 degrees it should not be a problem. Also that is Sunday at 0700 and as has been said many times on this site the computer generated forecasts are about as useful as a chocolate teapot! 

[Seasonal weather required]

1 hour ago, EastAnglian said:

How can you tell that will be a blizzard from a simple graphic. Looks more like a shower to me and with max temp of 5 degrees it should not be a problem. Also that is Sunday at 0700 and as has been said many times on this site the computer generated forecasts are about as useful as a chocolate teapot! 

Hehehe there’s always one ....

No flies on you EA.

Dont shoot the messenger though ,because I text Degsy earlier about BFTE2 and asked his advice , to which his exact words were “ watch out for the 0700 Monday blizzard in mumbles “.

I then checked the bbc app and found he was being deadly serious .

I did question his advice ,but as he is a weather pro I decided to ring verdis and let them know .

I regret that now and think maybe I should have consulted Andymusic first ( sorry Andy ).

Interestingly for exactly the same time Morriston just has light snow , so great local variances in snow depths on the day  hence Degsy calling it the mumbles blizzard .

I think he is over reacting and panicking like Andy said , following his dressing down by senior figures in the BBC.

The question remains - Is Derek a dead man walking ??

 

 

[RhysWales]

Soooo, Saturday night could be interesting!

[keithlucky]

Im BACK im going to blast my icey breath over you.Yes very cold blast returning by Sunday

 

Edited March 12, 2018 by keithlucky

[beatpete]

Whats with the Dererk/BBC bashing? I though they were spot on last time. Look at it this way, those of us around Swansea were hopeful of a a good dump of snow, good early orange warning, as it happen didn't get much at all, it stayed east, mainly in the Red warning area which was issued as soon as the high res models put some placement on it. Warnings any earlier would be inaccurate and the general guidance and early warning to authorities was very accurate. Fingers crossed for the weekend even if it's only likely in the higher parts. 

  

[DeepSnow]

Hmm with uppers of -8c at this time of year daytime highs will still reach 4-6C+ surely? So im not expecting much if any snow for most lowland areas if it comes off.

[bradymk]

2 hours ago, DeepSnow said:

Hmm with uppers of -8c at this time of year daytime highs will still reach 4-6C+ surely? So im not expecting much if any snow for most lowland areas if it comes off.

-13c 850hpa on 18z GFS. ECM below -10c too. So a little lower on sat night/Sunday than you said. No doubt sun is going to raise the air temp more than in mid winter. However dew point will be well below zero again which is the important thing. 

ECM has snow for all of wales Saturday night and temperatures not getting above 0c all day Sunday for Cardiff. Brrrrr

still a long way to go mind!

[andymusic]

On ‎11‎/‎03‎/‎2018 at 14:58, Seasonal weather required said:

Andy , do you think Derek should apologise to the nation at prime time 6pm news ? or at least a formal type apology on Twitter ?.

What does he have to do ,if at all possible to gain a pardon from yourself ?

I heard a rumour that perhaps Derek and a few others in the news team were doing something or other with “ the voice “ ...

What would you do if you seen him knocking about there in person ?? you wouldn’t sabotage anything when he went on stage would you ? ...

Whatever would Derek sing anyway ?

Mayve he is a Sinatra type” I did it my way “ kind of man ? Or perhaps he’s into 90s grunge kurt cobain smells like teen spirit - ———-yes i can picture Derek in the mosh pit losing the plot ..

Dereks secret other life who ever would have thought that .....

 

Anyway , hope we don’t get a 2nd beast as yesterday was pleasantly mild ...

Oh well , must dash , need to get my medication.

 

have invited lots of the beeb team to the event - but I think Derek's invite got "lost in the post" or I might have to have words with him lol