Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Baldy Snowman]

Just now, Penfoel said:

I would rather give it away than throw it away ?

if it rains and thaws we may get a collection tomorrow 

from memory, it was bloody lovely too. yum.

[Loadsa2000]

12 minutes ago, Icequeen said:

Yes but will it snow in Swansea .......seriously though will it???? Been quite sad today was like father christmas never came  but I've been good all year

that's the problem you should of been a bad girl

[J10]

6 hours ago, swales said:

Someone mentioned (I think J10) it's because of the Foehn effect? We're in a rain/snow shadow because of the direction the precipitation is moving in

 

How unlucky

 

 

Indeed they tend to get a lot of this in the Alps with the leeward side of the mountain much milder and drier than the other,

In Wales NE Wales can get very mild on SW winds, with Hawarden often being the warmest place in Wales for this reason.

https://www.chesterchronicle.co.uk/news/chester-cheshire-news/broughton-hits-17c-making-hottest-12292680

A lot more detail in the link below.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/foehn-effect

 

[Baldy Snowman]

something seems off about the falling precipitation, and the predicted precipitation on GFS. it seems to be a bit further north, a couple of dozen miles, than what the GFS precipitation 12 z chart thinks, but the low is almost exactly where it's supposed to be, if a bit tighter than predicted on the sea level pressure GFS chart

 

 

[snowy36]

2 minutes ago, Baldy Snowman said:

something seems off about the falling precipitation, and the predicted precipitation on GFS. it seems to be a bit further north, a couple of dozen miles, than what the GFS precipitation 12 z chart thinks, but the low is almost exactly where it's supposed to be, if a bit tighter than predicted on the sea level pressure GFS chart

 

 

All good so far   Steady as she goes.

Edited March 2, 2018 by snowy36

[Icequeen]

2 minutes ago, J10 said:

Indeed they tend to get a lot of this in the Alps with the leeward side of the mountain much milder and drier than the other,

In Wales NE Wales can get very mild on SW winds, with Hawarden often being the warmest place in Wales for this reason.

 

https://www.chesterchronicle.co.uk/news/chester-cheshire-news/broughton-hits-17c-making-hottest-12292680

A lot more detail in the link below.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/foehn-effect

 

Only 2 options then......

1) relocate the whole city to a sweet spot.

2) shave a bit off the mountains and pop the waste in swansea bay 

Actually asked my hubby if we could move to Canada today

[RhysWales]

Bit nervous about what's heading our way this evening/ overnight. Sure it will make it, but seems marginal to me whether coastal areas could get freezing rain instead?

[Rhosyn o Loegr]

19 minutes ago, Penfoel said:

I wish 

not allowed ... unpasteurised... we drink it of course but we aren’t able to give it away due to silly rules ... 

ice cream ?? 

 

I thought there might be something like that about selling it.  Didn't realise it extended to giving  it away.  I thought I heard of a farm that had some sort of fridge outside where people could come and take raw milk, at their own risk, and in their own containers.  I can't remember all the details but it got round the letter of the law....probably been stopped by now though, it was several years ago.

I hope the lorry gets to you in the morning....

[snowy36]

5 minutes ago, Baldy Snowman said:

something seems off about the falling precipitation, and the predicted precipitation on GFS. it seems to be a bit further north, a couple of dozen miles, than what the GFS precipitation 12 z chart thinks, but the low is almost exactly where it's supposed to be, if a bit tighter than predicted on the sea level pressure GFS chart

 

 

Is it freezing rain down south!!!  Was that V7 radar any good, i was going to get it .

[Baldy Snowman]

1 minute ago, snowy36 said:

All good so far   Steady as she goes.

also, the low looks a lot tighter, and more organised. quite nice looking on v7. also definitely further east than predicted, by about 65 to 70 miles further east than where it is SUPPOSED to be at 12 am, by my rough reckoning. this MUST change what happens, surely?

[Baldy Snowman]

3 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

Is it freezing rain down south!!!  Was that V7 radar any good, i was going to get it .

yeah i love it. glued to it in conditions like this.

 

it''s saying snow showers starting to hit s wales now. bit of sleet in the bristol channel though, and over the mountains of england to our south, there's a mixture of snow sleet and freezing rain

Edited March 2, 2018 by Baldy Snowman

[snowy36]

2 minutes ago, Baldy Snowman said:

also, the low looks a lot tighter, and more organised. quite nice looking on v7. also definitely further east than predicted, by about 65 to 70 miles further east than where it is SUPPOSED to be at 12 am, by my rough reckoning. this MUST change what happens, surely?

According to the charts it goes east a bit between now and 10 then goes straight north until it turns.

[snowy36]

1 minute ago, Baldy Snowman said:

yeah i love it. glued to it in conditions like this.

Could u pay using paypal!!!

[Baldy Snowman]

2 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

Could u pay using paypal!!!

not sure. i paid by card. doesnt say on registration page.

[thetipster]

some ppn pushing up before main band 

[J10]

8 minutes ago, Icequeen said:

Only 2 options then......

1) relocate the whole city to a sweet spot.

2) shave a bit off the mountains and pop the waste in swansea bay 

Actually asked my hubby if we could move to Canada today

Or next time have the front coming from a different direction. aka 2013 or 1996, even 1991.

It was so cold yesterday a normal SW would have done the trick.

On 28/02/2018 at 08:59, Sky Full said:

Looking at the detailed charts for the period out to about +65h there is a distinct wedge of less cold uppers shown forming across the SW and then making an arrowhead into south and west Wales.  The difference in temperature of this air is quite marked compared to the surrounding air and is modelled to considerably restrict the amount of snow falling over central Wales over the next three days.  This is the WRF but all high res models show this feature:

Is this the result of a geographical feature (Bristol channel, or Dartmoor perhaps?) or is it simply the dynamics of the low pressure system?  It stands out on the line of upper temperatures as they move north across the British Isles and it would be interesting to find out the reason for it.

 

On 28/02/2018 at 09:25, Blessed Weather said:

With the easterly flow over Wales it could be the air descending and warming (adiabatic compression) on the leeward side the Welsh mountains? You'll often see it in the Alps where it's referred to as the Foehn effect.

 

[Rhosyn o Loegr]

One of my cats just demanded to go out...he got two steps out on the packed bit outside the door, took a step on the soft stuff and turned straight round!!!

 

No snow here for the past 90 minutes or more....waiting for the next bit predicted by nw radar....

[Seasonal weather required]

8 minutes ago, Icequeen said:

Only 2 options then......

1) relocate the whole city to a sweet spot.

2) shave a bit off the mountains and pop the waste in swansea bay 

Actually asked my hubby if we could move to Canada today

Don’t worry as in summer when the rain comes from the south east it will be toasty and dry in Swansea ......

Speaking of summer the Ssw in 2013 led to a fantastic summer ..... directly ?? Maybe ..

So perhaps this summer could be just as good as that one .

Nice stroll down to verdis in the late evening warmth , glass of red then maybe a bag of chips from yallops or stay in verdis if you must ... 

Walk round the bays on the coastal path , and it’s right on our doorstep .

Would you rather be up in the cool misty valleys then ?

 

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

That ppn is rotating towards us? How can the BBC and met office get it so wrong? That's obviously if it happens.

[snowy36]

The met office got it going to us and if u look at the weather for u place u will see it , also on will it rain they have it for us. The Bbc didn't.

[Baldy Snowman]

7 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

That ppn is rotating towards us? How can the BBC and met office get it so wrong? That's obviously if it happens.

the low is further east than predicted, clearly. by about 60 miles or so. the following is where it should have been at 9pm..

 

 but this is where it was, centred directly south of Plymouth..

 

 

question is, is this slight positional change anything significant?

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, Baldy Snowman said:

the low is further east than predicted, clearly. by about 60 miles or so. the following is where it should have been at 9pm..

 

 but this is where it was, centred directly south of Plymouth..

 

 

question is, is this slight positional change anything significant?

Who knows, my met office has now updated to some heavy snow over night and also my AccuWeather app says 2 inches of snow to come.

[thetipster]

yep rain in Cardiff tonight wash all the snow away be gone in morning 

[snowy36]

5 minutes ago, Baldy Snowman said:

the low is further east than predicted, clearly. by about 60 miles or so. the following is where it should have been at 9pm..

 

 but this is where it was, centred directly south of Plymouth..

 

 

question is, is this slight positional change anything significant?

Dont want it to far east or it could bring rain.

[DeepSnow]

Yes meto have snow/heavy snow early morning turning to rain tomorrow, will be interesting to see how it goes