Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

34 minutes ago, andymusic said:

midday today - mmmmmmmmmm - bit out of whack lo when you look at the radar lol

6pm tonight

midnight tonight

6am tomoz morning

SNOW STORM EMMA - THE GREAT ST DAVID's DAY SNOW STORM/BLIZZARD of 2018 - 12 midday tomoz or just before - I'd say 11am onwards

6pm tomoz afternoon - getting heavier

HEAVIER AND TOTAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS - BY NOW PILING UP INTO FEET OF SNOW

SOUTHERN IRELAND looks like it's gonna get it bad too - but it's still dropping on us too overnight into FRIDAY 6am - FEET OF SNOW and drifting

That looks quite an early start then. I have friends taking part in the St David's Day parade in Cardiff and my nephew is due to go to Tenby & Saundersfoot on Friday with the school as part of his Leisure & Tourism course.  Looks like an interesting 48 hours to come

Edited February 28, 2018 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

[Seasonal weather required]

15 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Those charts still show no snow or PPN in this area WTF lol i could be green

This is quite remarkable in its own right .

That Swansea to Carmarthen area and north - north west somehow manages to avoid getting any snow whatsoever in a full on frontal type storm event .

I can understand a large variation but this is just plain ridiculous .

If that snow chart is right I will eat my bobble hat .

Lol Swansea 0-1 cm - Cardiff HALF A METRE .

In footballing terms this is like the final score being ........Swansea 0 Cardiff 9 with Swansea hitting the bar and post 15 -20 times , having 6 goals ruled as offside , Cardiff committing a dozen blatant red card offences  ,and probably having a worse ref than that referee from escape to victory .... remember Peles overhead kick ... wow and Ossie dribbling  , proper film ... I digress .

 

That dry area is really infuriating now but it cannot be right surely .....

 

[Frozone]

Just now, Seasonal weather required said:

This is quite remarkable in its own right .

That Swansea to Carmarthen area and north - north west somehow manages to avoid getting any snow whatsoever in a full on frontal type storm event .

I can understand a large variation but this is just plain ridiculous .

If that snow chart is right I will eat my bobble hat .

Lol Swansea 0-1 cm - Cardiff HALF A METRE .

In footballing terms this is like the final score being ........Swansea 0 Cardiff 9 with Swansea hitting the bar and post 15 -20 times , having 6 goals ruled as offside , Cardiff committing a dozen blatant red card offences  ,and probably having a worse ref than that referee from escape to victory .... remember Peles overhead kick ... wow and Ossie dribbling  , proper film ... I digress .

 

That dry area is really infuriating now but it cannot be right surely .....

 

Does seem odd doesn't it.  Hoping it's wrong!

[lindy2222]

12 minutes ago, Cwmbran Eira said:

Interesting comment from Ian Fergusson re. possible snow depths 

 

Down comes the snow in North #Somerset... settling instantly as expected. Liquid to snow ratio typically 10:1 but with this type of snow, prob closer to 15:1. Model snow amounts can thus be underplayed (for once!) in this type of set-up.

Had a look at where my son and daughter live..central tayside and fife ..have red warnings for today and tomorrow

[Snowyowl9]

A few light snow showers earlier,slight drifting then,wind has picked up more from the east since.

Currently no thawing and sunny patchy cloud at -3.0c

 

[Buzz]

7 minutes ago, Seasonal weather required said:

This is quite remarkable in its own right .

That Swansea to Carmarthen area and north - north west somehow manages to avoid getting any snow whatsoever in a full on frontal type storm event .

I can understand a large variation but this is just plain ridiculous .

If that snow chart is right I will eat my bobble hat .

Lol Swansea 0-1 cm - Cardiff HALF A METRE .

In footballing terms this is like the final score being ........Swansea 0 Cardiff 9 with Swansea hitting the bar and post 15 -20 times , having 6 goals ruled as offside , Cardiff committing a dozen blatant red card offences  ,and probably having a worse ref than that referee from escape to victory .... remember Peles overhead kick ... wow and Ossie dribbling  , proper film ... I digress .

 

That dry area is really infuriating now but it cannot be right surely .....

 

Did you have a look at the explanation that I linked to? Have linked it below. However I do think that the computer models are generalising just a tad too much, surely the "bugger all snow" regions they are showing aren't quite as cut and dry as all that?

 

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

  Incoming snow from the east.

[PompeyFC]

yep if that remains intense and on the same line we could get a decent covering jay

Edited February 28, 2018 by PompeyFC

[dragon falls]

Its showing wind chill -8 on my weather station and -13 depoint quite a few showers coming from east building now shops are mad only went for screen wash .

[Bartlett High]

Still not certain on the exact track of storm Emma , details will become much clearer this evening but severe weather for this region still not certain.

[CRACKPOT]

Saturdays warning now gone..... please don't take them all away and rain start appearing as mild air encroaches faster!

The front is coming up from Biscay tomorrow... hope the it doesn;t moderate too much.

[andymusic]

Yellow Warning of Ice for Wales

 

Yellow Warning of Ice for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan & Wrexham valid from 0005 Sat 03 Mar to 0900 Sat 03 Mar

[CRACKPOT]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

Yellow Warning of Ice for Wales

 

Yellow Warning of Ice for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan & Wrexham valid from 0005 Sat 03 Mar to 0900 Sat 03 Mar

Ice only now - which means a lot of what we have Friday will be thawing and freezing later in day!

[andymusic]

56 minutes ago, Seasonal weather required said:

This is quite remarkable in its own right .

That Swansea to Carmarthen area and north - north west somehow manages to avoid getting any snow whatsoever in a full on frontal type storm event .

I can understand a large variation but this is just plain ridiculous .

If that snow chart is right I will eat my bobble hat .

Lol Swansea 0-1 cm - Cardiff HALF A METRE .

In footballing terms this is like the final score being ........Swansea 0 Cardiff 9 with Swansea hitting the bar and post 15 -20 times , having 6 goals ruled as offside , Cardiff committing a dozen blatant red card offences  ,and probably having a worse ref than that referee from escape to victory .... remember Peles overhead kick ... wow and Ossie dribbling  , proper film ... I digress .

 

That dry area is really infuriating now but it cannot be right surely .....

 

I wouldn't panic you WILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL get pasted too - MARK MY WORDS

[snefnug]

Meto having data problems, so you will flash in and out of warnings I think.  My area has been in and out of yellow all day, with a positive dance of snowflake symbols!

 

[PompeyFC]

Just watched BBC forecast, was different to recent days in that I think they have more of an idea on the track, looked to start a little later to me and a lull overnight but then more on Frifay than expected as another front approaches, all of wales was snow over the 36 hour period.  Looked good to me  

[andymusic]

1 hour ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

That looks quite an early start then. I have friends taking part in the St David's Day parade in Cardiff and my nephew is due to go to Tenby & Saundersfoot on Friday with the school as part of his Leisure & Tourism course.  Looks like an interesting 48 hours to come

not sure any of that will take place now - my fiancé Liza is in something on Saturday called St David Rocks - she'sappearing as a Shirley Bassey Tribute at two brains venues - 4pm The Yard & 8pm The Duke Of Wellington - and there'll be 6 other Brains venues involved plus two other Shirley tributes plus three tom jones tributes plus oher acts plus a stereophonics tribute band - but I've been messaging the promoter who has been working on this for months to let him know that SNOW STORM EMMA will basically knacker anything up over the next 3 - 4 days or so in Wales pretty much - Liza is supposed to be in Bridgend as well as Shirley Bassey on Friday night to do with St David's celebrations but that's looking extremely doubtful - we got a 4x4 - but I ain't rasking life and limb through 2ft plus 4ft drifts for no one or no amount of money

Edited February 28, 2018 by andymusic

[MattTarrant]

Just to settle the nerves a little; 

HIRLAM : More broad snow (Ie even Swansea West Gets 7/8 cm)

ARPEGE: 5cm West Of Swansea

EURO4: Likely to be over predicting the effects of the Brecon Beacons. They are a real annoyance but are they really going to wipe out all precipitation on SE to NW trajectory? Unlikely. 

Met Office automated forecasts also show snow falling for the likes of; Swansea, Ammanford, Carmarthen. 

[andymusic]

1 hour ago, swales said:

 30-40 min drive east and it's a snow fest!

I can't believe it, after all the hype and the perfect set up for a dumping the high res models are keep the snow shield over Swans and Carms

you ain't seeing the bigger picture - euro 4 always UNDERESTIMATES the PRECIP - UNDERESTIMATES it AND WHERE IT FALLS - TAKE IT WITH A PINCH OF SALT - THOSE CHARTS ARE JUST A GUIDE BUT ADD MORE ON ASWELL - then you got your BLIZZARD FROM HELL - OR SNOWY HELL - A GOOD PROPORTION OF WALES IS GONNA GET HAMMERED WITH THIS STORM - HAMMERED in BIG LETTERS

[swales]

6 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

Just to settle the nerves a little; 

HIRLAM : More broad snow (Ie even Swansea West Gets 7/8 cm)

ARPEGE: 5cm West Of Swansea

EURO4: Likely to be over predicting the effects of the Brecon Beacons. They are a real annoyance but are they really going to wipe out all precipitation on SE to NW trajectory? Unlikely. 

Met Office automated forecasts also show snow falling for the likes of; Swansea, Ammanford, Carmarthen. 

Yes I notice MO automated forecast is actually showing several hours of snow here instead of being bone dry like it was yesterday...

Is the automated forecast from their own in house model? I assume so...

HIRLAM looking decent. I'd be happy with 8cm in snow starved Llanelli

3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

you ain't seeing the bigger picture - euro 4 always UNDERESTIMATES the PRECIP - UNDERESTIMATES it AND WHERE IT FALLS - TAKE IT WITH A PINCH OF SALT - THOSE CHARTS ARE JUST A GUIDE BUT ADD MORE ON ASWELL - then you got your BLIZZARD FROM HELL - OR SNOWY HELL - A GOOD PROPORTION OF WALES IS GONNA GET HAMMERED WITH THIS STORM - HAMMERED in BIG LETTERS

I do love your enthusiasm Andy. I hope we all get a hammering. I'm in my 20's so don't remember anything special but the snow events that do stick out to me from my childhood happened during March! So roll on tomorrow and Friday

Edited February 28, 2018 by swales

[PompeyFC]

10-20cm through thursday afternoonon derek forecasts in SE wales then a lull until friday morning where it really kicks off

[A Frayed Knot]

Derek Brokway forecast just then on the wales news was snowmegedon . Thursday and lots more ' even more Friday

[PompeyFC]

when I say lull overnight  I just mean less intense and showery but still loads lol 

[PompeyFC]

Friday shows whole of south wales being pasted royally ha ha 

[Jayfromcardiff]

4 minutes ago, PompeyFC said:

when I say lull overnight  I just mean less intense and showery but still loads lol 

What, more heavy snow Friday? After a possible 8 inches of snow?