Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[bradymk]

Moderate snow shower in cardiff now. Small area though, probably won’t even affect whole city. 

[swales]

3 minutes ago, dyl232 said:

Any charts to show roughly accumulations for this thur fri sat?? ??thanks 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/wales/snow-depth-in/20180303-1500z.html

This is a good site for looking at model data... specifically ECM data as you don't seem to find much of that around. This chart shows snow cover for all of Wales by Sat morn at 9am

 

[bradymk]

Shower intensifying slightly as about to hit. Temperatures below freezing already. -1c in city centre.

[Jen Beachcomber]

On 25 February 2018 at 08:35, Sky Full said:

Wow!  What a story!  And what a great picture!  I love Manorbier and it's not difficult to imagine that little village being cut off in heavy snow but it must have been fun for you at the time.  I grew up in a flat with no heating and with those metal framed windows which never closed properly - in freezing weather we would get frost patterns on the inside of the glass and you could sometimes see your breath in the air!   Didn't seem strange to us in those days though.

Somehow I doubt that the weather is going to be so severe in our part of the world this time (apart from some very low temperatures) but there could well be some localised road closures if we get any drifting snow.  It's very tense in the MAD thread as they try to work out what exactly will happen - don't know why they can't just wait for things to happen...

Sorry only just seen this...

Ha I agree it didn't seem strange to us at all... lol... 

It was the drifting with the wind! one side of the road would have nothing and the other side would have 6ft or more!!!! 

I don't think it's going to miss us and it's going to be windy, as to how much snow we get, the models differ, I'm holding back and planning to get all excited tomorrow... lol... 

I'm all prepped and have cooked enough to feed an Army... lol... x

[JamesL]

I'm with @andymusic on this one.

I've been following the weather for the past 40 years. I'm an amateur meteorologist and have studied the charts pretty much every day for the last 30 years (since the Jan 87 event)

The greatest southwest blizzards have generally come from fairly marginal situations. This is because the heaviest precipitation is usually where the two air masses meet. This border carries high risk high reward. 

However this set up for pretty much all of Wales isn't that marginal. Possibly towards the SW coasts of Pembs may have a wintry mix, due to sea modification however, come in land a few miles and it's all snow for Thursday and pretty much the whole of Friday (the far west my turn slightly less cold)  

For me the sweet spot will be in SE Wales closest to the boundary but perfectly placed to still be fed low dew points and 850's between -2 to -4. So that means particularly the valleys and the Heads of the Valleys. So an area from Newport to Cardiff northwards (the eastern Valleys) 

Here im expecting in excess of 25-30cms of snow. 

Apart from the coastal strip I'm expecting < 10cms and possibly up to 15cms in South Wales fairly generally. 

Mid and North Wales between 5-10cms simply because the heaviest precipitation will be closer to the boundary. However come Saturday mid and North Wales may well see more. 

Come Saturday I expect temps to recover somewhat and reach low positive maximums in South Wales but closer to zero further north, so a slow thaw will set in by midday sat. 

The snow threat then moves to north wales and the north of the UK. 

There is however a caveat. The cold air MAY return South and with deep snow cover temps will be suppressed and struggle above freezing from the Heads of the valleys north. South of that expect temps a few degrees above freezing and Cardiff at around 4-5c 

So there we have it. This could be an epic event. Make sure you're prepared and stay safe. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Mr brockway going for 5-10cm widely lol. Hardly sounds bad.

[Icequeen]

Why is netweather forecast showing 0% snow risk on Thursday 

[swales]

6 minutes ago, Icequeen said:

Why is netweather forecast showing 0% snow risk on Thursday 

They use the NetWx-SR/MR model for their forecast https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/netwx-mr

Looking at the precipitation charts it shows nothing over parts of West and South West Wales on Thursday! This is what I was on about when I posted earlier... snow shield between Swansea and Carmarthen that I keep consistently seeing! But I'm trying to be positive for snow... I'm sure there will be a dumping

 

 

 

Edited February 27, 2018 by swales

[Icequeen]

2 minutes ago, swales said:

They use the NetWx-SR/MR model for their forecast https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/netwx-mr

Looking at the precipitation charts it shows nothing over parts of West and South West Wales on Thursday! This is what I was on about when I posted earlier... snow shield between Swansea and Carmarthen that I keep consistently seeing! But I'm trying to be positive for snow... I'm sure there will be a dumping

 

 

 

Ah thank you, how often does this update? 

[Cwmbran Eira]

10 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Mr brockway going for 5-10cm widely lol. Hardly sounds bad.

ye. That confused me but i think he was talking specially about Thursday so not including overnight into Friday 

[swales]

1 minute ago, Icequeen said:

Ah thank you, how often does this update? 

4 times daily. Currently up to date with the 12z run. Should update later before midnight for 18z

[leehws]

Meant to be flying to Milan on Friday morning from Birmingham, should be interesting if this goes as forecast! Meant to be snowing in Milan all day Friday too ?

[goosey007]

Can anyone post dereks forecasts please 

[Baldy Snowman]

hmmm, noticing something about the snow amounts. don't know if anyone else has pointed it out?

 

the following were the laying snow amounts for 3pm Friday, as per the Saturday 24/2 12Z run..

now here are the snow amounts for 3pm Friday for todays 06z run..

 

and for today's 12z run..

 

 

progressively less and less snow cover. reason to be concerned, or not? or should we just take it at face value, because it's 'experimental'? models haven't exactly covered themselves in glory with this event, have they?

 

[benb]

1 hour ago, Jen Beachcomber said:

Didn't you get some 'flakes' in Tenby today Ben? 

I'm waiting for tomorrows run to confirm how much and when, but I'm almost certain we WILL get snow on Thursday, The upper air is cold, the ground is cold, it will be snowing at sea before it reaches land 

Hi Jen- I'm in Pembroke by day, where we had about an hour-and-a-half of steadyish, light snow: lovely, and the second time this year!

Deffo be something Thurs/Fri... just how much? I'm hoping for a classic!

[PompeyFC]

It' GFS. Precip charts are wildly inaccurate. Look at Arpege Euro4 etc 

[A Frayed Knot]

20 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Can anyone post dereks forecasts please 

 

[Coilspring]

Hi all,

Should have introduced myself on my last post but was in work. Anyway it does look excitingover the next couple of days with either a good covering of snow for south Wales to a major blizzard. Im hoping for the latter but happy with anything. 

Its on a knife edge as always but work have actually acknowledged there may be serious problems with access to customers on thurs / Fri so its looking like its going to come to fruition. We live in hope for a white weekend. Have fun and enjoy it. Cheers.

[freeze for all]

50 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Mr brockway going for 5-10cm widely lol. Hardly sounds bad.

I'm sure that's wot was predicted for the 2010 event for my area and I woke up to this, 1 foot deep

[Blackjack]

Well I’m staring down the barrel of 24 hrs of heavy snow and another 24 of snow showers. I’m Prime placed in Crickhowell for it. More supplies to get tomorrow. 

Not bothering with a snow shovel. Don’t think it will be any use. 

Strap in people. 

[Penfoel]

2 hours ago, Jen Beachcomber said:

Gorgeous Pics... Love them x

Told you we might get a few flakes Tuesday... lol... 

I don't think we'll miss out on Thur, just a matter of when and how much !!!!

It’s been hard work but great fun today 

blooming cold wind , snow showers and sunshine ? 

Something quite lovely being with the livestock when it’s snowing 

[judowidow]

1 minute ago, Blackjack said:

Well I’m staring down the barrel of 24 hrs of heavy snow and another 24 of snow showers. I’m Prime placed in Crickhowell for it. More supplies to get tomorrow. 

Not bothering with a snow shovel. Don’t think it will be any use. 

Strap in people. 

Yes I’m not far away in Abergavenny, could be the worst snow I’ve seen since moving here 15 years ago. 

I’m all stocked up and snow shovel by the front door.

 

[Marcus_surfer]

I’d assume eastern wales shows greater PPN and accumulation because of the strong easterly wind? Hitting the higher mountains 

[ourson]

3 minutes ago, judowidow said:

Yes I’m not far away in Abergavenny, could be the worst snow I’ve seen since moving here 15 years ago. 

I’m all stocked up and snow shovel by the front door.

 

Or the best snow.....?

[Wosser]

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcjnyry1j#?date=2018-03-01

I have the warning but only 50% chance of snow at 6 ? Please tell me the meto are  wrong

 

Edited February 27, 2018 by Wosser