Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[ourson]

5 hours ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

South Wales coast for once NOT marginal and right in the middle of the amber warning!!

 

Expect a red warning for parts to be issued tomorrow night.

Cardiff right in the sweet spot at the moment! Could be fun times!!

[Jen Beachcomber]

4 hours ago, Jayne aka Pembsgal said:

Can anyone tell me what it's like in Kilgetty, Tenby or Saundersfoot please?

I'm at work in Pembroke Dock and it'd been throwing it down here for a few hours but not sticking, so disappointing!

I'm sure there was some in Kilgetty as well.. x

Keep an eye on the weather Thurs Jayne, if you're working your drive home might be longer than normal!

[bradymk]

up to 20cm

[Baldy Snowman]

so, will it be named 'The Great St David's Day Storm' then?

[andymusic]

7 minutes ago, benytezz said:

dont worry about gaps in the snow. if the event is as good, or bad, depending on your point of view as i think it might be, all of the blowing snow will distract you from the fact none is actually coming from the sky

BIG LOL

[andymusic]

4 minutes ago, benytezz said:

so, will it be named 'The Great St David's Day Storm' then?

I think we should name it that definitely - SNOW STORM EMMA - The Famous Blizzard of 2018 - THE GREAT ST DAVID's Day Storm

[Baldy Snowman]

 

5 minutes ago, andymusic said:

BIG LOL

it's what happened in 78 and 82 too. there were slack periods in those events, but the winds were so insane no-one really noticed. Too concerned with the mountains of white stuff piling up everywhere.

Edited February 27, 2018 by benytezz

[Sky Full]

Don't know about a 'beast' from the east...  This looks more like a PUPPY from the east to me:

   

Lets just hope it's bite is worse than its bark....!

If it's snowing on Thursday night when I go to bed, there's gonna be a problem 'cos I might have to stay up all night to makes sure it carries on till Friday morning!!

very very cold here now - had to go and wrap up the outside water tap 'cos I think everything outside is going to FREEZE SOLID tonight!  

 

[Jackfrost]

6 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

up to 20cm

A further 0-15 cm possible on Friday and Saturday. I think we can be confident that South Wales is in the sweet spot over the coming days, so we can expect towards the upper end of those estimate. ~30 cm depths come Saturday can probably be realistically expected in South Wales, if not a little more, and not necessarily only on high ground.

[Baldy Snowman]

1 minute ago, Jackfrost said:

A further 0-15 cm possible on Friday and Saturday. I think we can be confident that South Wales is in the sweet spot over the coming days, so we can expect towards the upper end of those estimate. ~30 cm depths come Saturday can probably be realistically expected in South Wales, if not a little more, and not necessarily only on high ground.

which, if the wind remains high, will relocate into large drifts everywhere. this is a once in two or three generation event. in fact, THIS late in the season, it's a once in FIVE or SIX generation event. an extraordinary event

[Baldy Snowman]

keep an eye on your attics during it guys and gals. my parents had large drifts up there during the 78 blizzard . if you have a draughty attic, it could be an issue. the stuff gets EVERYWHERE

[Jen Beachcomber]

39 minutes ago, benb said:

 

 

 

I'm normally cautious about these things, but it's such an unusually cold set-up I guess if it's going to happen it has to be now.

Seems to have upgraded last couple of runs, too. But, as usual, half a degree could make all the difference between white-out and wash-out!

Didn't you get some 'flakes' in Tenby today Ben? 

I'm waiting for tomorrows run to confirm how much and when, but I'm almost certain we WILL get snow on Thursday, The upper air is cold, the ground is cold, it will be snowing at sea before it reaches land 

[bradymk]

Quick update - only had quick glance at ECM but looks great for us for Thursday. Disruptive accumulations building up.

havent checked precip, but looks best output this evening and going forward

real risk of freezing rain on Thursday night ECM too, but we still look far enough north at the moment to stay as snow. 

Close call so stay tuned. East Ireland is the sweet spot for this but we look in great position too. Dublin really taking a hammering.

Edited February 27, 2018 by bradythemole

[Icequeen]

How I'm feeling right now with each run...waiting for bad news

[keithlucky]

25 minutes ago, andymusic said:

I think we should name it that definitely - SNOW STORM EMMA - The Famous Blizzard of 2018 - THE GREAT ST DAVID's Day Storm

Fair dues the much criticized Precipitation charts .This  was forecasted about 7days ago Remember Andy we were  LUNIES lol.

[bradymk]

Freezing rain evident on ECM significant weather charts for Thursday night. 

Here is Late Thursday/early Friday.

freezing rain very close. (This is after hours of snow though). Freezing rain is red

interesting ecm also has some snow Saturday as colder air digs back in.

Edited February 27, 2018 by bradythemole

[Baldy Snowman]

this time last week the low was SUPPOSED to be hitting tomorrow, Wednesday, and ever so gradually it has been pushed back and back, until finally it's gonna hit half way through Thursday. This is the BLOCK. it has been resisting this low all the way, and now it is here, trying it's damnedest to push up against a MONSTER. The way i like to think of it is like a small scrum half trying to push up against a prop. he'll try everything to push him back, but the prop will just stand there, laughing, as the scrum half spins around and around, getting so frustrated he loses control of his bladder, spraying all of his moisture everywhere.......

 

ok, bit too graphic that last bit was, but you get the picture? the models have been CLUELESS about this, because they hardly ever see this set up, but this is EXACTLY what happened in the late 70s and early 80s, and is the reason Andy has been so confident, because he, like me has SEEN It before. the models try and push the block away too easily, cos that is what NORMAL blocks do, they give in. not THIS one!

 

Wales and the S/SW always do well in these set ups for big snow events. I honestly never ever thought I'd see this set up again in my life, and honestly, as a courier, it is something I have dreaded the whole time I have done this job, nearly a decade and a half. Not one event has even come close to this perfect storm, and here it is, right on our doorstep! I'm just glad it is nearly Spring so hopefully I won't lose TOO much money.

 

all i CAN do now is enjoy it, and the associated time off, because there is sweet FA i can do about it. let it snow let it snow let it snow. you youngsters are in for a right royal treat if this comes off fully, let me tell you.

[Icequeen]

3 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Freezing rain evident on ECM significant weather charts for Thursday night. 

Here is Late Thursday/early Friday.

freezing rain very close. (This is after hours of snow though). Freezing rain is red

interesting ecm also has some snow Saturday as colder air digs back in.

What is the orange? Sleet? 

[whiskers]

I don't get why they don't make the decision to shut the schools Friday,it doesn't make sense, they know what's happening so why not give people advance warning?? 

[Baldy Snowman]

Just now, whiskers said:

I don't get why they don't make the decision to shut the schools Friday,it doesn't make sense, they know what's happening so why not give people advance warning?? 

it's because they thrive on chaos. common sense is in short supply with any gov related organisation.

 

they will make the decision though. they'll have to. people can and do die in these conditions.

[Jen Beachcomber]

3 minutes ago, Icequeen said:

What is the orange? Sleet? 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/wales/significant-weather.html

 

Try this link Icequeen, Key to colours at the bottom, you can also zoom into your area... 

[Icequeen]

We've had letters today informing us of inclement weather plans for school and where to find out if they are open or closed

[RhysWales]

1 hour ago, Seasonal weather required said:

Roll on spring and 15 - 20 degrees sunny days .

That first day of just wearing a t shirt and it feels comfortable , the life breathed back into to the hedgerows , the invasion of wasps into the eaves - damn must fill that hole in this year ....

Stop it! You're depressing me! 

[Icequeen]

Feeling a bit apprehensive about Friday. Am on call with community midwife, if it is really bad and stops women getting to hospital; guessing we may be busy

[dyl232]

Any charts to show roughly accumulations for this thur fri sat?? ??thanks