Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[PompeyFC]

20 minutes ago, benytezz said:

any model experts on? doesn't warm air rise when it encounters cold air, especially the VERY cold air we'll have over us when that low arrives? Why does an established block of cold air move out of the way so readily in the face of an encroaching spin of warm air?

 

this is the bit i'm not getting about the models, but perhaps that's why i'm not a pro meteorologist as well? lol

It's because there is a weakness in the block and the low pressure has snuffed it out. ECM UKMO and GFS have shown this but it's 6 days away so nowhere near resolved. I'e seen lows correct their position with 12 hours. It doesnt take much to keep us all in snow. 50-60 miles southwards could make all the difference. In weather terms thats nothing.

[Cwmbran Eira]

to be honest. A 5 day cold snap with some snow. Possible lots. Then a return to warmer weather would do me fine.

I'm not interested in weeks of cold weather in March. 2013 was bloody awful here. Cold, grey and snowless. Certainly do not want a repeat of that. Wouldn't mind days like yesterday and today though. Beautiful!

[Baldy Snowman]

yeah, i've been thinking about the southward shift too

we see that all the time normally. normally it's what STOPS us having a major event, but this time it could create one.

[Sky Full]

11 hours ago, Jen Beachcomber said:

82 was 'bleeding cold' Welsh Wanderer but it wasn't that 'cold' 

This was the main road out of Manorbier Jan 82

 

Wow!  What a story!  And what a great picture!  I love Manorbier and it's not difficult to imagine that little village being cut off in heavy snow but it must have been fun for you at the time.  I grew up in a flat with no heating and with those metal framed windows which never closed properly - in freezing weather we would get frost patterns on the inside of the glass and you could sometimes see your breath in the air!   Didn't seem strange to us in those days though.

Somehow I doubt that the weather is going to be so severe in our part of the world this time (apart from some very low temperatures) but there could well be some localised road closures if we get any drifting snow.  It's very tense in the MAD thread as they try to work out what exactly will happen - don't know why they can't just wait for things to happen...

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, Sky Full said:

Wow!  What a story!  And what a great picture!  I love Manorbier and it's not difficult to imagine that little village being cut off in heavy snow but it must have been fun for you at the time.  I grew up in a flat with no heating and with those metal framed windows which never closed properly - in freezing weather we would get frost patterns on the inside of the glass and you could sometimes see your breath in the air!   Didn't seem strange to us in those days though.

Somehow I doubt that the weather is going to be so severe in our part of the world this time (apart from some very low temperatures) but there could well be some localised road closures if we get any drifting snow.  It's very tense in the MAD thread as they try to work out what exactly will happen - don't know why they can't just wait for things to happen...

bunch of weather geniuses banging each other over the head with their ideas - and they've all got their opinions and egos to deal with too - plus the south east issue lol - don't go in their right now - not a good idea - quite happy in yer with me welsh best buds while we wait for the 1st flake

[Baldy Snowman]

i think we're in for a hell of a week, with hit or miss blizzardy showers Tuesday and Wednesday, interspersed with bright sunny spells, then a  more general blizzard on Thursday, which could well last a couple of days

 

i hope not though, for reasons stated previously. i need to earn money on the roads. hard to do when they're blocked.

 

anyone in a  direct line of the north sea streamers could see quite a dumping of snow on Tuesday and Wednesday I reckon. it will be fun watching the excitement, (and jealousy) on here.

 

i've got my NW radar subscription sorted for them! I'm ready.

[jessmum]

It's much windier this morning, is this the start of the Siberian air moving in? 

[Baldy Snowman]

5 minutes ago, jessmum said:

It's much windier this morning, is this the start of the Siberian air moving in? 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Wow Cardiff down for heavy snow starting Thursday evening through to Friday 

[Jackfrost]

19 minutes ago, jessmum said:

It's much windier this morning, is this the start of the Siberian air moving in? 

It is, yes!

One thing to bear in mind: most of us (and I'm assuming all of us here on Netweather) will be enjoying the cold and snow since we have the luxury of being able to wrap up warm before returning to our cosy homes. Not everyone is so fortunate; I felt genuinely upset reading this story:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-43181603

Especially with the forecast windchill and nighttime lows (-4-6C, even in urban areas), anybody on the streets has a real chance of hypothermia. There are a lot of homeless people in Cardiff, Swansea and Newport in particular, so if you do one good deed this week then buy a rough sleeper a hot drink and a warm pastie or pie! In an ideal world we wouldn't have such a heartless and incompetent government and this wouldn't be an issue, but alas. Also, our furry friends will appreciate a warm coast when out for walkies this week.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Jackfrost

[Stevetynant]

26 minutes ago, benytezz said:

i think we're in for a hell of a week, with hit or miss blizzardy showers Tuesday and Wednesday, interspersed with bright sunny spells, then a  more general blizzard on Thursday, which could well last a couple of days

 

i hope not though, for reasons stated previously. i need to earn money on the roads. hard to do when they're blocked.

 

anyone in a  direct line of the north sea streamers could see quite a dumping of snow on Tuesday and Wednesday I reckon. it will be fun watching the excitement, (and jealousy) on here.

 

i've got my NW radar subscription sorted for them! I'm ready.

Good luck man, for all us weather enthusiasts hoping for snow let’s not forget this weather has a huge impact on people’s livelihoods and we’ll being 

[jessmum]

Thanks, I have to take my furry friend out for a walk now - not looking forward to it judging by the sound of the wind it'll be mighty cold. I'm a bit disappointed that the weather forecast is now showing rain for Friday. Still I suppose it can change yet, it's still a long way off. 

[freeze for all]

31 minutes ago, jessmum said:

Thanks, I have to take my furry friend out for a walk now - not looking forward to it judging by the sound of the wind it'll be mighty cold. I'm a bit disappointed that the weather forecast is now showing rain for Friday. Still I suppose it can change yet, it's still a long way off. 

No rain on this forecast

[MattTarrant]

1 hour ago, benytezz said:

any model experts on? doesn't warm air rise when it encounters cold air, especially the VERY cold air we'll have over us when that low arrives? Why does an established block of cold air move out of the way so readily in the face of an encroaching spin of warm air?

 

this is the bit i'm not getting about the models, but perhaps that's why i'm not a pro meteorologist as well? lol

You make a valid point, cold air is very dense. Though its key to distinguish between 850hPa Temperatures (Approx 1500m) & Surface Temperatures in this situation. 

Parameters of air (mass) resistance is a complex science. I would be under the assumption that as result of our minimal land surface area, the boundary level is more minimal in its affects to fluid flow than would otherwise be the case in a continental country. Such that as a result of minimal cold development at the surface 'warmer' air masses can easily override the cold air in place without disruption or turbulence (Ie remains laminar flow in essence), related to a dimensionless numerical value known as Reynolds Number.  

The above hopefully will give a little glimpse at the complexities of air mass interchange, especially at the boundary level. You should also hence be able to decipher why there is a lag in surface temperatures over ridden by a warmer upper air component.  

[Stevetynant]

When their discussing the disappointing rain event on the mod thread they aren’t obviously looking at this chart

[keithlucky]

27 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

No rain on this forecast

b

Potential for snow covering Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Blizzard Friday bitterly cold what's not to like about the week ahead.Concerning Friday weather not a real vigorous LP that moves north across Wales so it will take a while for cold air to be mixed out ,so nothing changed .

 

[Jackfrost]

Big improvement on the 06Z for prolonging the snow over Wales - the milder air never makes it as far north as us - with more snow on Sunday. And encouragingly, all of Wales, not just inland parts with elevation, get in on the action.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Jackfrost

[Sky Full]

It's looking beeootiful outside now -  bright sunshine and blue skies - lovely and dry too!   Then I took a step outside the door - and its bloody cold, bitter isn't exaggerating it!   Got to walk the dog - I think my hands'll drop off!   If does show 3.1C on the thermometer but it feels much colder in the wind.  

This is only Sunday - the temperatures are going to fall every day for the next five days at least - and then we get snow!  What a week to look forward to!

[andymusic]

told ya - model wobbles - it's only a bl***y computer churning out probabilistic numbers after all - a little bit here a little bit there - the stonking uppers coming from Siberia and low temps generally plus the temps over our snowfields - this will NOT BE MOVED on quickly - NO bl***y way lol - the GFS is being naughty again - we need to spank it's botty lol

Edited February 25, 2018 by andymusic

[whiskers]

13 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

It's looking beeootiful outside now -  bright sunshine and blue skies - lovely and dry too!   Then I took a step outside the door - and its bloody cold, bitter isn't exaggerating it!   Got to walk the dog - I think my hands'll drop off!   If does show 3.1C on the thermometer but it feels much colder in the wind.  

This is only Sunday - the temperatures are going to fall every day for the next five days at least - and then we get snow!  What a week to look forward to!

Glad you said how cold it is as I'm off out with my dog,it looks lovely but will defo put a hat on now! Can't wait to see what the week brings! 

[Loadsa2000]

Derek Brockway - weatherman‏Verified account @DerekTheWeather 2h2 hours ago

More

Baby it's cold outside but you ain't seen nothing yet!

The 'Beast from the East' will arrive tomorrow moving across the #UK & #Ireland

Likely to be a historic & memorable cold spell!

Keep an eye on elderly or vulnerable friends & neighbours

Check your car antifreeze

[Loadsa2000]

Derek Brockway - weatherman‏Verified account @DerekTheWeather 1h1 hour ago

More

Snow showers spreading from the east reaching #Wales on Tuesday

Of growing concern, is the potential for heavy snow late Thursday & Friday spreading north with blizzards/drifting!

Risk of freezing rain in places.

In the S/SW it may turn less cold with snow turning to rain.

 

[Loadsa2000]

Derek Brockway - weatherman‏Verified account @DerekTheWeather 2h2 hours ago

More

You're right there is a chance less cold air may get in next weekend and the following week but don't bank on it. Cold spells can be difficult to break down.

[Loadsa2000]

last one

1. Ian Fergusson‏Verified account @fergieweather 31m31 minutes ago 

1. Replying to @BCFCMattyH @MarkyDub and4 others
2. I'm not going to second-guess re warnings or timings. Clearly however, if signal remains as strong as now (stress if!), then it probably wouldn't be just a yellow...
3. 3 replies . 0 retweets 1 like 

• 1. Derek Brockway - weatherman‏Verified account @DerekTheWeather 26m26 minutes ago 

1. Replying to @fergieweather @BCFCMattyH and4 others
2. Could be an amber or dare I say a red! Gulp.

• 1. Ian Fergusson‏Verified account @fergieweather 18m18 minutes ago 

1. Replying to @DerekTheWeather @BCFCMattyH and4 others
2. I don't usually bother commenting on perennial winter nonsense from eg D Express. However, this week has all hallmarks of a seriously newsworthy & potentially gravely dangerous cold episode. Due to stupid prior false reporting, our messaging is now much harder ('cry wolf' effect)

[Clair_Witch]

Derek being on board is an excellent sign! He always plays down snow events, definitely not a ramper. 

The Mad thread is certainly living up to it's name today. Very tense in there, think I'll stay in the cosy Welsh thread. Lol