Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, keithlucky said:

Allowing for convection anywhere could get a good covering its a matter of radar watching around midday Tuesday onwards,and don't forget dry powdery snow requires less moisture so snow covers the ground faster.

What's your thoughts on Friday mate? People saying mild temps to turn snow to rain?

[Jackfrost]

15 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

What's your thoughts on Friday mate? People saying mild temps to turn snow to rain?

I know you didn't ask me, Jay, but take no notice of it: it was just one run from one model. Conversely, it's not even guaranteed that the low will reach us. The cold block could prove so potent that it's kept well to the south.

Edited February 24, 2018 by Jackfrost

[andymusic]

my opinion - Tuesday's offerings are the PRAWN COCKTAIL of the snow - the main course will come the delicious STEAK MEAL of the THREE DAY BLIZZARD - with some desserts for you snow loving welsh geezers after that too if you've got any room lol

[Missdolly]

1 hour ago, whiskers said:

I work in a school, can't wait to see what they say on Monday,bet Caerphilly council won't say much! 

Our school sent weather warnings out in December a few days before it happened and closed for two days as it was dangerous ! Obviously here in Merthyr it's a little higher up than carephilly but still I can see school having to close if this comes ?

[valejack]

My meio app is giving me light snow in Swansea for Tuesday not showing on warning. Also light snow all day Friday but obviously this is all subject to change. I have seen in the past changes with hours in it to what has been warned about.

[MattTarrant]

9 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

What's your thoughts on Friday mate? People saying mild temps to turn snow to rain?

Model analysis at such a range is based  on trends & the probabilistic nature of certain broad scale events happening. History would indicate that cold pooling is often readily removed too fast (often just before the onset of the cold),especially at the surface level. Once we are into the cold spell the models will adjust accordingly, largely a result of snow cover actually physically being in observations instead of in theory. Friday's system is simply conjecture at this range, though a mix of ECM & UKMO would currently be the favored outcome with support from MOGREPS. <10/20% GFS outcome.   

[whiskers]

Other than the temp on my weather station what else do I need to look for? Is it the barometer dropping?  Thanks in advance 

[Seasonal weather required]

33 minutes ago, andymusic said:

BLACK Warning of Snow for Wales !!

 

Yellow Warning of Snow for Wales : Flintshire, Monmouthshire, Powys, Wrexham, Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Newport, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan, Bridgend, Merthyr Tydfil, Swansea ,Neath Port Talbot, Rhonnda Cynon Taff & Denbighshire valid from 0005 Tue 27 Feb to 2355 Tue 27 Feb

BLACK Warning of Snow for Wales !!

 

Red Warning of Snow for Wales : Conwy,Swansea, Denbighshire, Flintshire & Wrexham valid from 0005 Wed 28 Feb to 2355 Wed 28 Feb

Jesus Christ !

Never in my 352 years of model watching have I ever seen a BLACK warning !!

WTF - I think that’s taking it a bit too far - 

The weather matrix must have an additional level of severity now .

” BLACK WARNING = almost certain death “

North Wales and randomly Swansea in the same warning ??

Andy what does this mean ?

 

 

[whiskers]

2 minutes ago, Seasonal weather required said:

Jesus Christ !

Never in my 352 years of model watching have I ever seen a BLACK warning !!

WTF - I think that’s taking it a bit too far - 

The weather matrix must have an additional level of severity now .

” BLACK WARNING = almost certain death “

North Wales and randomly Swansea in the same warning ??

Andy what does this mean ?

 

 

Blinking heck! Don't know what to make of that! I'm a little scared to be honest! Even though I'm not in the warning!! ??

[CRACKPOT]

A lot of milder breakdown solutions now appearing at end of this week - but we have seen this before and they encroach into the earlier scenarios and we will end up with a 3-4 day event (which will be good don;t get me wrong) - but I was hoping the prolonged cold would stay around leading to more snow opportunities and the added excitement of them appearing at short notice.

I hope this trend is only a model wobble as it cannot handle this 'different' scenario to our normal weather. However, as I have said it's concerning quite a few are now popping up.

JK

[valejack]

Never seen a Red warning for snow in Swansea that I can remember.

[andymusic]

3 minutes ago, CRACKPOT said:

A lot of milder breakdown solutions now appearing at end of this week - but we have seen this before and they encroach into the earlier scenarios and we will end up with a 3-4 day event (which will be good don;t get me wrong) - but I was hoping the prolonged cold would stay around leading to more snow opportunities and the added excitement of them appearing at short notice.

I hope this trend is only a model wobble as it cannot handle this 'different' scenario to our normal weather. However, as I have said it's concerning quite a few are now popping up.

JK

GFS couldn't organize a p**s up up in a brewery regarding any breakdown - are you serious - with temps of -15 and below - it thinks a low is gonna shift that - LOL LOL LOL - stupid GFS - it's a computer churning out the usual progressive stuff - it'll hit the freezing air and drop it's snowiness - believe me

Edited February 24, 2018 by andymusic

[andymusic]

it's just another run and the 6z and I even haven't had time to look at it - look at the ensembles it'll show it'll be one of the milder runs around that time - just the computer playing devils advocate and churning out that particular run as the operational

Edited February 24, 2018 by andymusic

[Seasonal weather required]

4 minutes ago, whiskers said:

Blinking heck! Don't know what to make of that! I'm a little scared to be honest! Even though I'm not in the warning!! ??

Awww shucks  I cannot lie ... Swansea isn’t in the warning .

I just wanted to feel part of the cold spell.

Sorry all .

No Black Death either - so I won’t need to stand on the Loughor Bridge whilst Swansea faces almost certain death .

Though do you remember the Red warning in 2013 ?

Merthyr area ?.

I wonder how many red warnings we will see in the next week ..

Starting to get very interesting - just need a good undercut and bingo !!

 

 

 

 

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, andymusic said:

it's just another run and the 6z and I even haven't had time to look at it - look at the ensembles it'll show it'll be one of the milder runs around that time - just the computer playing devils advocate and churning out that particular run as the operational

You're probably right to be honest, the past week has been upgrade followed by upgrade. We were bound to receive a bit of a downgrade at one stage, whether this happens or not is another question and is 6 days away. If other models jump on board and by Wednesday the pros also jump on board then we can safely say that GFS was correct.

[CRACKPOT]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

GFS couldn't organize a p**s up up in a brewery regarding any breakdown - are you serious - with temps of -15 and below - it thinks a low is gonna shift that - LOL LOL LOL - stupid GFS - it's a computer churning out the usual progressive stuff - it'll hit the freezing air and drop it's snowiness - believe me

Hey, there is no need to have a pop. I'm posting a relevant observation - and you know it's not just the GFS that's doing this. There are a few possibilities appearing in some of the runs of a quick breakdown.

I'll leave it alone for now then. It's obviously not as friendly as I thought - that's why I rarely post.

JK

[valejack]

2 minutes ago, Seasonal weather required said:

Awww shucks  I cannot lie ... Swansea isn’t in the warning .

I just wanted to feel part of the cold spell.

Sorry all .

No Black Death either - so I won’t need to stand on the Loughor Bridge whilst Swansea faces almost certain death .

Though do you remember the Red warning in 2013 ?

Merthyr area ?.

I wonder how many red warnings we will see in the next week ..

Starting to get very interesting - just need a good undercut and bingo !!

 

 

 

 

 

She Ah but we have s Red warning for Wednesday just look up the thread a bit.

[valejack]

Lol trying to post with a phone is fun when you look back at what is posted.

[Jayfromcardiff]

As much as I want the GFS to be wrong, we simply just can't discount it as it's not showing what we want. Hopefully it's not a start of a trend.

[andymusic]

2 minutes ago, CRACKPOT said:

Hey, there is no need to have a pop. I'm posting a relevant observation - and you know it's not just the GFS that's doing this. There are a few possibilities appearing in some of the runs of a quick breakdown.

I'll leave it alone for now then. It's obviously not as friendly as I thought - that's why I rarely post.

JK

sorry apologies - didn't mean to sound brash - just that the gfs does this all the time - i'm suitably convinced the dumpings of all dumpings is on it's way

[andymusic]

7 minutes ago, Seasonal weather required said:

Awww shucks  I cannot lie ... Swansea isn’t in the warning .

I just wanted to feel part of the cold spell.

Sorry all .

No Black Death either - so I won’t need to stand on the Loughor Bridge whilst Swansea faces almost certain death .

Though do you remember the Red warning in 2013 ?

Merthyr area ?.

I wonder how many red warnings we will see in the next week ..

Starting to get very interesting - just need a good undercut and bingo !!

 

 

 

 

 

you are a part of it butty boy - we're all gonna get a pasting I promise - just watch it come in - this will be quite amazing to see - but dangerous too - so look after the vunerable peeps

[Seasonal weather required]

16 minutes ago, andymusic said:

GFS couldn't organize a p**s up up in a brewery regarding any breakdown - are you serious - with temps of -15 and below - it thinks a low is gonna shift that - LOL LOL LOL - stupid GFS - it's a computer churning out the usual progressive stuff - it'll hit the freezing air and drop it's snowiness - believe me

10 minutes ago, CRACKPOT said:

Hey, there is no need to have a pop. I'm posting a relevant observation - and you know it's not just the GFS that's doing this. There are a few possibilities appearing in some of the runs of a quick breakdown.

I'll leave it alone for now then. It's obviously not as friendly as I thought - that's why I rarely post.

JK

Crackpot , your observation cannot be discounted .

Too many especially on the mad thread dismiss far too easily .

Yes there are observed issues with the GFS but i doubt it has ever been 100% plain wrong .

A blend of the GFS ECM AND UKMO is where it usually will go .

For me , the overall pattern is so rare that no models historical bias can be used against it this time .

Even the “ it always corrects south “ which i admit it usually does - cannot be used in these circumstances .

Oh yes , forgot to mention “ don’t mention the word mild or anything associated with mild to Andy “.

?

Edited February 24, 2018 by Seasonal weather required

[Carl46Wrexham]

Red warnings? What red warnings? Whatchu talkin bout Willis?

[Sky Full]

1 hour ago, andymusic said:

Yellow Warning of Snow for Wales

 

Yellow Warning of Snow for Wales : Flintshire, Monmouthshire, Powys, Wrexham, Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Newport, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan, Bridgend, Merthyr Tydfil, Neath Port Talbot, Rhonnda Cynon Taff & Denbighshire valid from 0005 Tue 27 Feb to 2355 Tue 27 Feb

Yellow Warning of Snow for Wales

 

Yellow Warning of Snow for Wales : Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire & Wrexham valid from 0005 Wed 28 Feb to 2355 Wed 28 Feb

Erm -    Sorry mate, think you made a mistake.  No mention of Pembrokeshire on there?   Go back and check again please!  

[PompeyFC]

Not as convinced as Andy yet. UKMO hinted at GFS solution aswell. Wont know for sure until Wednesday. But my guess is it will track further south as usual.