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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

yes I know it's flippin journalists who's just trying to make a living and lives of sensationalism - but here's the article anyway lol

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uk-weather-latest-britain-braces-for-arctic-temperatures-as-sudden-stratospheric-warming-ushers-in-big-freeze/ar-BBJa6DW?li=AAmiR2Z&ocid=spartanntp

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

haven't been in the mad thread today - anything from Mr Murr? still not sure anything's nailed down yet - look around 96 - 144 a high which will cool us anyway and the model doesn't really know what to do with it, it'll be how that positions itself slightly further down the line as to what happens next, still got the feeling we are gonna get clobbered - met office haven't changed there outlook today - so they must be seeing something too

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Tuesday 20 Feb 2018 to Thursday 1 Mar 2018:

Dry, but often bright weather will dominate across the UK throughout next week, with overnight frosts becoming widespread. However, outbreaks of rain or drizzle along with some hill snow and stronger winds are possible at times across northwestern areas. Temperatures will be around average for the time of year to begin. However, it will turn much colder by the end of the week and into the following week, as the wind tends to turn east or southeasterly in direction. Wintry showers may develop,with the potential for some significant snowfalls focused on southern, central or eastern areas. The location and intensity of any snowfall will be uncertain until much nearer the time. However, some milder unsettled weather still may occur at times, especially in the west.

UK Outlook for Friday 2 Mar 2018 to Friday 16 Mar 2018:

In first week of March, it is likely to stay cold with widespread overnight frost. There will be a greater chance than usual of easterly winds developing, which would bring very cold weather at times and the potential for some snowfall in eastern and even southern parts.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: freezing cold and lots of snow
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
32 minutes ago, andymusic said:

haven't been in the mad thread today - anything from Mr Murr? still not sure anything's nailed down yet - look around 96 - 144 a high which will cool us anyway and the model doesn't really know what to do with it, it'll be how that positions itself slightly further down the line as to what happens next, still got the feeling we are gonna get clobbered - met office haven't changed there outlook today - so they must be seeing something too

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Tuesday 20 Feb 2018 to Thursday 1 Mar 2018:

Dry, but often bright weather will dominate across the UK throughout next week, with overnight frosts becoming widespread. However, outbreaks of rain or drizzle along with some hill snow and stronger winds are possible at times across northwestern areas. Temperatures will be around average for the time of year to begin. However, it will turn much colder by the end of the week and into the following week, as the wind tends to turn east or southeasterly in direction. Wintry showers may develop,with the potential for some significant snowfalls focused on southern, central or eastern areas. The location and intensity of any snowfall will be uncertain until much nearer the time. However, some milder unsettled weather still may occur at times, especially in the west.

UK Outlook for Friday 2 Mar 2018 to Friday 16 Mar 2018:

In first week of March, it is likely to stay cold with widespread overnight frost. There will be a greater chance than usual of easterly winds developing, which would bring very cold weather at times and the potential for some snowfall in eastern and even southern parts.

They r just going off wot the models r saying out in la la land but I guarantee that will change in a few days

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
8 minutes ago, PompeyFC said:

Its better much improved. But we need to see sustained output

yep lots of flippy flopping - gfs drops it - then ecm picks it up and runs with it lol - only models with sketchy ideas of what might happen and we get to see one run that it's picked out of a number - so it's in the running defo - the flippy flopping also usually means something's up and a big change is on the way which the models are struggling to handle

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

You must always remember all computers models cannot handle strat warming a big strat warming has taken place causing zonal winds reversal.https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU

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Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales

Last few days runs have pushed easterley that is actually one that would deliver snow out to 2nd March of now.  Quel surprise

Personally I think we are more likely to get snow from the north west but we'll see

Just seen ECM. Oooooo. UKMO. Crap. Who wins lol

Edited by PompeyFC
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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

snowy/hail here right now - this mornings ECM late easterly run - BANK - GFS and the rest of them completely lost the plot, but who knows - but divergence at such a short time scale can really only mean one thing - something's up and it could well be a BIG change in our weather set up and the ECM could be on the money - I'm betting the GFS will be back on the horse in the next few runs

Edited by andymusic
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Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL

To be honest at this stage i wouldnt mind the models going mild with some early spring warmth! I think we have had the worst part of winter !

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Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales

I think the ECM is abit of an outlier by the sounds of it. But good to see it back on the agenda. I don't think we will see any realistic chance of whats to come until next week. 

Edited by PompeyFC
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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
37 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

To be honest at this stage i wouldnt mind the models going mild with some early spring warmth! I think we have had the worst part of winter !

Marcus that ain't happening just yet, but I understand where you're coming from, a bit of warmth again would be nice - but I don't think this winter is over at all yet - far from it - I get the feeling the worst is yet to come

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff 9m (32ft) asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold, thunder and lightning.
  • Location: Cardiff 9m (32ft) asl

I really hope you're right, Andy. I have everything crossed that we get a good final burst of Winter and lower levels get to see some lying snow, definitely not ready for Spring yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: freezing cold and lots of snow
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL

Glorious day out there today and in the sun it felt like spring was on the way 

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
4 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

Glorious day out there today and in the sun it felt like spring was on the way 

think it's a false dawn lol

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

latest email from the meto

 

There is increasing confidence that the recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming above the North Pole could lead to prolonged cold conditions over the UK, increasing the risk of easterly wind and significant snow.
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Posted
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: freezing cold and lots of snow
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
59 minutes ago, valley blue_501 said:

Really? 5C here and a chilly wind. 

Yes 9c here and felt a lot warmer in the sun but then the cloud rolled in about 3pm

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