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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

Pressures rises over the Neast as a Low Pressure moves from Poland to UK increasing our chances of widespread snow simular set up to Feb1991;06_231_preciptype.png?cb=698

Edited by keithlucky
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Posted
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: freezing cold and lots of snow
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
1 hour ago, andymusic said:

let's have 50p on it lol

Deal, I'll even post it through ur letter box cos I'm that confident I'll b able to get there without being snowed under lol

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
13 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Pressures rises over the Neast as a Low Pressure moves from Poland to UK increasing our chances of widespread snow simular set up to Feb1991;06_231_preciptype.png?cb=698

thank you keith - looks flipping obvious to me what's gonna happen

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
Just now, freeze for all said:

Deal, I'll even post it through ur letter box cos I'm that confident I'll b able to get there without being snowed under lol

ok your on - we'll shake on it - that later this month we are gonna get very very cold and then cop it from an easterly starting off around 20th (uppers not there then) but getting colder and colder from then on in and then into march

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Posted
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: freezing cold and lots of snow
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
1 hour ago, andymusic said:

ok your on - we'll shake on it - that later this month we are gonna get very very cold and then cop it from an easterly starting off around 20th (uppers not there then) but getting colder and colder from then on in and then into march

No the deal is snowmageddon on the 25th like the chart says ??

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
7 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

No the deal is snowmageddon on the 25th like the chart says ??

that seems a bit precise lol - very very cold by the end of feb - i'm a poor musician, and that's my baked beans tin money for the day lol - can't even afford the bread lol lol :cold::rofl::wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales

The 12z shows just how un-nailed on it really is, very poor run out to 276 and shows there is no handle whatsoever on what is going to happen.  They flit from scenario one run to another.  And posting precip charts at this range is surely just for fun !?

This regional thread is certainly a place for cold rampers and sacra members lol.  I wouldn't even bet 50p on the outcome yet ! ha ha 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
15 minutes ago, PompeyFC said:

The 12z shows just how un-nailed on it really is, very poor run out to 276 and shows there is no handle whatsoever on what is going to happen.  They flit from scenario one run to another.  And posting precip charts at this range is surely just for fun !?

This regional thread is certainly a place for cold rampers and sacra members lol.  I wouldn't even bet 50p on the outcome yet ! ha ha 

 

gfs has been steady over the past couple of days - if it is a bit weak (and I haven't seen it yet as I've been a busy bee today earning my 50p lol) then it's probably a rogue mild run

edit - ok just looked - gonna need to convince me with further similar runs before I back down - easterly still featured just not favouring the uk, so nothing to worry about just yet

Edited by andymusic
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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

People in the MOD thread really clinging on to the Mythical Beast from the East now posting from the lesser models.  The main models are continuously delaying the cold coming in, everyday for the last week I've read the thread and they are talking about Day 10.  It's like Groundhog day reading it.  I really wished the theories would come true regarding all the 'Background signals' in our favour but looking at the main model runs it just doesn't look to be the case, same story every time. 

So if no cold snowy blast is coming, let's have some early spring dry warmth and not a middle ground where it is chilly or mild rain, i'm sick of this weather now.  It's been a really poor depressing winter for this location again. 

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Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales

Indeed. ECM NOT on board. Similar run to GFS  as in not cold

dunno why it's underlining my text lol. U is not on

Edited by PompeyFC
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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

GFS 18z - back on track - again agreed no cold uppers till later BUT - reversal of the weather from west to east TO east to west around 20th and then things build from there! - a repeating pattern!

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Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales

Its a poor run again for widespread cold and snow. And certainly no raging easterly. No -5 850s until 28th Feb and it's from the West. This east to west statement is largely irrelevant as it depends more how the high pressure displaces and where it ends up. Easteries can be cold and dry just as they can bring snow. Either way 20th is not really the start of it. In fact by 23rd we have a southerly pull in from France.  Cold does not arrive for a further 8 days.  Tomorrow's runs better improve. 

The 18z ensembles aren't great either. Fumin

Edited by PompeyFC
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Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales

So going by the Weather forecast at 9-55pm last evening the Best from the East has been watered down looking at reports in the Mad Head thread ' i am sure every forecaster that read out the weather forecast are going by what they see and also they write up the report .

I could be wrong but i am sure they are the ones who think what and when will happen ' who read out the weather tonight at that time ? Was it a mild ramper ... seems like :crazy:

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Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales

00z show no Easterly now until 2nd March. ECM a write off aswell.  

Could be a long day of model watching.  However we might find some comfort in the UKMO model which is the pick of the 3 I think

Edited by PompeyFC
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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

meto - 

UK Outlook for Monday 19 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 28 Feb 2018:

Dry, sometimes bright weather and light winds will predominate in the UK throughout next week, with increasing amounts of overnight frost. Rain or drizzle and stronger winds are possible at times in northwestern areas. Temperatures at the start of next week will be around average for the time of year, and probably slightly above average in the north. However, there will be a trend toward colder weather by the end of the week and into the following week, as winds turn predominately easterly. Wintry showers may develop,with the potential for some significant snowfalls focused on southern, central or eastern areas. The location and intensity of any snowfall will be uncertain until much nearer the time.

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Mar 2018 to Thursday 15 Mar 2018:

In first week of March, it is likely to stay cold with widespread overnight frost. There will be a greater chance than usual of easterly winds, which would bring very cold weather at times and the potential for some snowfall in eastern and even southern parts.

ECM - up to 168 hrs - BLOCKING showing from the east - ECM very very rarely verifies into 192/216/240 - it's crap then

GFS still showing - yes a DRY Easterly I grant you but an easterly it is, and yes not a particularly cold one - but still an easterly - and sometimes the GFS will push what it was showing previously back in as we get closer to t0 - and the previous amazing output magically appears - so we ain't lost the easterly and blocking yet

Edited by andymusic
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Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales

Looks like models are onto a new pattern. 12z shows no Easterly and cold pushed out to 28th with a cold shot actually from polar maritime air from north west. Gotta hope they change soon or it looks like we could have yet another easterly no show. Always the same great FI charts that remain in FI

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Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales

Nick Sussex and Bluearmy knowledgable members and pretty spot on alot of the time are despondent. Nick posted this

 

Looks like we might have to throw the towel in on any decent cold spell to end winter.

The UKMO couldn’t even verify at T96 hrs this morning and the GFS brings back a rampant PV in by day 8.

Even by some of the easterly debacles this one given the biggest zonal reversal in history re the strat looks like currently delivering zip.

Although the models have been very jumpy they now seemed to have jumped onto the worst solution.

Barring some miracle on the ECM it looks like the end of the road for this winter.

 

Not sure we are quite there yet but it looks to me like 1st week of March will be the last shot should the Strat warming penetrate down to the surface

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