Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[DeepSnow]

Currently in Birmingham for the day, coming back to Wales later tonight and there's a nice amount of snow up here so I got to see some decent snow even if not at home so can say I'm happy with that! 

[Jayfromcardiff]

So exciting! Everyone in Cardiff has mentioned snow to me today lol.

[djwayne]

Will be interesting to see if meto do change rheir warnings based on the latest runs of their model. Suppose we will know in the next couple of hours if the warnings dont change then they are fairly certain of the outcome.

[PompeyFC]

What is good is the model are not showing Atlantic driven westerlies over the few weeks. There will be future shots at cold during December. PV displacement will be important in determining blocking. Signals look good though. 

[Cwmbran Eira]

temps on BBC auto forecast dropping. maxing at 3 tmrw now. It  was 6 a few hours ago

[WINTRY WALES]

2 minutes ago, Cwmbran Eira said:

temps on BBC auto forecast dropping. maxing at 3 tmrw now. It  was 6 a few hours ago

Us cwmbran folk look to be in a good spot for tomorrow!

[RhysWales]

5 minutes ago, Cwmbran Eira said:

temps on BBC auto forecast dropping. maxing at 3 tmrw now. It  was 6 a few hours ago

I'm still getting a tropical 6 in Bassaleg! My sister got a bit at least in Henllys last night..! 

What I'd give to move somewhere with more elevation!

Edited December 9, 2017 by RhysWales

[Jayfromcardiff]

Going to be a close call this, glad I got the netweather extra radar brilliant for this setup.

[KidCarm]

I went to the snow today up the Black Mountains as the snow is not going to come to me.....or so I thought. 

It was amazing up there just to walk in the snow,  still won't let myself believe we will have any snow on the south coast.   Good luck to those further north and east,  one day we will have a nationwide snow storm we can all enjoy.  I hope.

[andymusic]

latest gfs

[PompeyFC]

Similar to bbc who say Llanharan will have snow in the afternoon. Nowcast job

[Jayfromcardiff]

BBC forecast looks crap unless you live in mid or north wales.

[Summerstorm]

8 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

BBC forecast looks crap unless you live in mid or north wales.

To be honest more inclined to believe UKMO,GFS and ECM than anything that AROME and HIRLAM are showing for tomorrow. But you still might get something though just look at the radar and out the window and see what you get basically what i'm doing as well as i'm not allowing myself to get too excited until it is completely firmed up later on even though i'm in the North.

Edited December 9, 2017 by Summerstorm

[pyrotech]

10 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

To be honest more inclined to believe UKMO,GFS and ECM than anything that AROME and HIRLAM are showing for tomorrow. But you still might get something though just look at the radar and out the window and see what you get basically what i'm doing as well as i'm not allowing myself to get too excited until it is completely firmed up later on even though i'm in the North.

The ECM and GFS look further ahead, but these other models are also of alot of use near term.

We should also be paying attention to what these models are suggesting in a wrap around of cold air behind the low that changes rain and sleet towards snow, Its this common theme thats interesting as its a constant trend, as is the slight move South

 

Use all the tools in the box not just the favourites

Euro 4  is high res but has often got precipitation rates wrong and sometimes quite considerably, as for rain or snow this will be its first real test  in a while but i would not rule out its accuracy on next run tonight.

At least we are having a pre christmas discussion on snow unlike last few years and we could see snow tomorrow right down to the Cities  at some stage

[keithlucky]

15 minutes ago, pyrotech said:

The ECM and GFS look further ahead, but these other models are also of alot of use near term.

We should also be paying attention to what these models are suggesting in a wrap around of cold air behind the low that changes rain and sleet towards snow, Its this common theme thats interesting as its a constant trend, as is the slight move South

 

Use all the tools in the box not just the favourites

Euro 4  is high res but has often got precipitation rates wrong and sometimes quite considerably, as for rain or snow this will be its first real test  in a while but i would not rule out its accuracy on next run tonight.

At least we are having a pre christmas discussion on snow unlike last few years and we could see snow tomorrow right down to the Cities  at some stage

We could see a bit of wet snow as the fronts clears, we can glance to North Wales  with envy as they dig themselves out in the morning .in bkizzard conditions.

[J10]

From the Meteociel website, I did this (WRF-NMM Hi Res model) 06Hz

This shows snow initially for north and Central Wales, with some snow further south later as the colder temps edge back south.

For the (WRF-NMM Hi Res model) 12Hz model, this edges everything a little further south. This is clearly better news for the Northern Valleys in South Wales, but not as good for those in North Wales, Central Wales is looking good in either case.

But now it comes down to Nowcasting.

A reminder as well that www.wunderground.com is very good for real time weather stations giving a wide variety of Weather Stations across Wales and indeed elsewhere.

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=51.66877&lon=-3.941551&zoom=8&pin=&rad=1&rad.type=00Q&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=0

Edited December 9, 2017 by J10

[andymusic]

euro 4 - (and just been outside and it's still bitterly cold round these parts)

 

[pyrotech]

7 minutes ago, andymusic said:

euro 4 - (and just been outside and it's still bitterly cold round these parts)

 

Shifting slowly Southwards - currently same charts on BBC, but they tend to change with shift change of forecaster  for anything beyond next few hours, i believe they time it for latest model runs to be included with the new presenters shifts, i suggest next presenter will be having briefing on any changes the may of occurred

[Snowmadsam]

19 minutes ago, pyrotech said:

Shifting slowly Southwards - currently same charts on BBC, but they tend to change with shift change of forecaster  for anything beyond next few hours, i believe they time it for latest model runs to be included with the new presenters shifts, i suggest next presenter will be having briefing on any changes the may of occurred

BBC receive 6 hourly updates from forecasters in Exeter; any new information will have to be extracted from the Met Office Media Briefing Service portal via the duty forecaster and be put onto the master “show” on Weatherscape XT manually (imagine the joy of adding snowflakes).

We also need to be careful tonight if this snow line heads south it could interact with high winds....the perfect storm  

 

 

[A Frayed Knot]

Check this out' Showing plenty of snow for most parts of wales , even here .https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120912/wales/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20171211-0300z.html

[pyrotech]

Chris Fawkes‏ @_chrisfawkes 20m20 minutes ago

More

EC12z has shifted tomorrow's #snow zone about 50 miles southward, a trend noted in UKMO recent runs. Midlands & Wales still to get biggest 10-20cm disruptive dump Sunday. London area is finely balanced re rain/snow but at rather greater risk of getting some snow .

[beatpete]

On thursday i promised the kids sledging this weekend.......i am now a God  and i promise you all a 50 mile shift south......

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

So will it snow in Cardiff now? Or do I need more of a shift South.

 

This is unbelievable to think the snow wouldn't even get this far south last night.

[pyrotech]

Radar on my site suggests rain across South west has turned to Sleet or Snow East of Exeter

It also has webcams across the Country near the bottom of page, zoom in to an area to get more cameras

I will try to update it next week

http://www.floodwarn.co.uk/live snow reports snowing now.htm

[Cwmbran Eira]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

So will it snow in Cardiff now? Or do I need more of a shift South.

 

This is unbelievable to think the snow wouldn't even get this far south last night.

i think it's a case of nobody really knows. Models underestimate the resilience of cold and south wales can do much better than forecast. a definite shift south. I would say we're definitely in the game