Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[JamesL]

Another heavy shower passes down the Cynon streamer 

[DeepSnow]

Just looked on the radar and doesn't look like anything for this area but woke up more of a covering on the cars/roofs/grass and patches on the pavements which is nice to see. 

[Jackfrost]

The 00Z ECM has thrown out this rather unbelievable scenario, placing the upper Valleys within the zone of heaviest snow. That's 6" north of about Pontypridd come Monday morning, and it increases the further up you go.

Edited December 9, 2017 by Jackfrost

[Bafan]

Had a hammering overnight here in Tredegar by the looks.  Good couple of inches cover now.  Don't think I'll be moving my car anytime soon but it looks sooooo Christmassy out there! ?❄️?

[lindy2222]

2 minutes ago, Bafan said:

Had a hammering overnight here in Tredegar by the looks.  Good couple of inches cover now.  Don't think I'll be moving my car anytime soon but it looks sooooo Christmassy out there! ?❄️?

About 4inches snow here in brynmawr ....

[DeepSnow]

5 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

 

The 00Z ECM has thrown out this rather unbelievable scenario, placing the upper Valleys within the heavy snow zone. That's 8" north of about Pontypridd come Monday morning.

That would be amazing for all of Wales just about! Though BBC thismorning didn't want any snow or even rain really from Monday's system! 

[Bafan]

Just now, lindy2222 said:

About 4inches snow here in brynmawr ....

Yeah I'd say it's the same here.  

[lindy2222]

1 minute ago, Bafan said:

Yeah I'd say it's the same here.  

Looking t the height of snow on the recycle trolley....

 

[Bafan]

Just now, lindy2222 said:

Looking t the height of snow on the recycle trolley....

 

Ah the trusty trolibloc ? I'll go out in a bit and see how deep it is. 

[Snowmadsam]

Netweather models placed us north this morning meaning a rain event. No real change on the 18z run last night. This is deffo gonna be a nowcasting event. The heavier the rain is, the more chance of it turning to snow thanks to evaporative cooling

[Jackfrost]

This is from Ian Fergusson's Twitter:

W COUNTRY (ESP. #GLOUCESTERSHIRE): Sunday's forecast liable to further tweaks, with latest @metoffice assessment bringing S'rn margin of main snow risk down a bit to lie approx Brecon-Gloucester-Banbury-Luton (N'rn edge of warning may also be modified S'wd). Updates will follow.

It does seem to be creeping slowly south, and for those in South Wales with altitude it's important to remember that Brecon is actually at a lower altitude than the upper Valleys.

And this is from Derek's:

SUNDAY: Low pressure will bring a spell of heavy rain. Plus heavy #snow to most of #Wales. Milder in the S & SW with strong to gale force winds in the morning. 60 to 70mph gusts on exposed coasts. @metoffice warnings in force. Amber warning of snow!

I expect the amber warning area will be extended slightly southwards this morning, but still very likely to not include South Wales.

Edited December 9, 2017 by Jackfrost

[andymusic]

31 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

This is from Ian Fergusson's Twitter:

W COUNTRY (ESP. #GLOUCESTERSHIRE): Sunday's forecast liable to further tweaks, with latest @metoffice assessment bringing S'rn margin of main snow risk down a bit to lie approx Brecon-Gloucester-Banbury-Luton (N'rn edge of warning may also be modified S'wd). Updates will follow.

It does seem to be creeping slowly south, and for those in South Wales with altitude it's important to remember that Brecon is actually at a lower altitude than the upper Valleys.

And this is from Derek's:

SUNDAY: Low pressure will bring a spell of heavy rain. Plus heavy #snow to most of #Wales. Milder in the S & SW with strong to gale force winds in the morning. 60 to 70mph gusts on exposed coasts. @metoffice warnings in force. Amber warning of snow!

I expect the amber warning area will be extended slightly southwards this morning, but still very likely to not include South Wales.

a real nail biter - but this one will go down to the wire I think - still I look out at the snow fields here in ponty and say mmmmmmmm defo freezing and as the snow is already in, it'll be waiting for a foot or more top up lol

[Jackfrost]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

a real nail biter - but this one will go down to the wire I think - still I look out at the snow fields here in ponty and say mmmmmmmm defo freezing and as the snow is already in, it'll be waiting for a foot or more top up lol

Sadly Andy, my hunch is that we'll just about miss out this time; perhaps some initial sleet or snow and some light back edge falls.

[andymusic]

euro4 - not so good - but to be honest - it didn't really get much of what we had last night right

if a little more of the "milder" temps can be phased out we're in with a shot but this is still showing snow to rain back to snow

 

[andymusic]

latest gfs6z

more snow is not out of the question yet

[beatpete]

Good morning, what a great start to winter....

[Cymro]

15 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

Sadly Andy, my hunch is that we'll just about miss out this time; perhaps some initial sleet or snow and some light back edge falls.

I agree I dont think altitude will be enough tomorrow either as its more to do with mild air which is drastically milder! Perhaps snow on leading and back edge but nothing substantial akin how things look at the mo (i.e south of the beacons) but it won’t take much either would love to be wrong!

[Bafan]

Forecast looks interesting for tonight on my phone app! You never know....it might be right lol

[leehws]

Forecast looking interesting for my location tomorrow!! Would be first major snow since 2010

Edited December 9, 2017 by leehws

[Snowyowl9]

Some drifting overnight from the west some decent drifts about in exposed places seems unusual from the west.

Been mostly dry overnight bar a few light snow showers earlier.

But currently theres no thaw not even in the sun as its covered in cloud blueish skies overhead,sun has poked out looking weak today.

-0.2c currently after a low of -4.2c

Edited December 9, 2017 by Snowyowl9

[JamesL]

Some pics from this morning here in Cwmbach, Aberdare 

We had to take our 8 month old to Prime care in merthyr this morning and above Aberdare the snow went from a covering to around 2-3" by the hospital. Temp was between 0- -2. 

You know my thoughts on the snow tomorrow. There will still be further adjustments south. Even now my app goes from sleet to rain to snow. And Brecon which is probably only 15-20 miles north of here is in the amber warning. 

We wait in anticipation. Even if it doesn't materialise we had more last night than the whole of 2016-2017 winter combined 

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

South Wales mild tomorrow? Perhaps not!!

Latest Arome model run, although a bit milder later tonight, has much colder air quickly returning across the south coast of Wales by dinner time. (Very different to the GFS) Gone is the 10C in Swansea for example, instead 0-2C with snow or hail. This could potentially change everything weather wise tomorrow. I definitely wouldn't assume it'll just be mild wet and very windy on the coast after seeing this that's for sure!! 

[Buddiefan]

Updated warning

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/warnings/wl

[JamesL]

The latest fax also shows "most" of Wales the "right side" of the occlusion now and the warm front again has disappeared. 

A few more twists and turns to come. Looks like the MetO are going more in line with the 0z ECM

[Jackfrost]

Likelihood of heavy snow in South Wales increasing but not guaranteed.

Edited December 9, 2017 by Jackfrost