Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Blackjack]

Is that a yellow warning for Wales this Sunday that the MetO are trying to get out?

[andymusic]

meto website struggling at the mo - weather warning dept down - snowed under lol - but beacons forecasts mentions the word blizzards a few times over the next few days and sunday still going for a complete mixture of scenarios, rain/sleet/snow - again blizzards possible - freezing level mentioned though down to SEA LEVEL - so hope for all of us in the next few days 

[Sionzzz]

2 minutes ago, Blackjack said:

Is that a yellow warning for Wales this Sunday that the MetO are trying to get out?

See my screenshot previously for warning area. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

meto website struggling at the mo - weather warning dept down - snowed under lol - but beacons forecasts mentions the word blizzards a few times over the next few days and sunday still going for a complete mixture of scenarios, rain/sleet/snow - again blizzards possible - freezing level mentioned though down to SEA LEVEL - so hope for all of us in the next few days 

No snow for us on Sunday unfortunately. Oh well.

[andymusic]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

No snow for us on Sunday unfortunately. Oh well.

you don't know that yet Jay - just enjoy the next 24 - 48 hours - should see some snow - then let's see where exactly this front actually goes - 50 - 100 miles north or south could make a huge difference yet

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, andymusic said:

you don't know that yet Jay - just enjoy the next 24 - 48 hours - should see some snow - then let's see where exactly this front actually goes - 50 - 100 miles north or south could make a huge difference yet

Will we see much snow tomorrow do you think? Looks like there will be a lot of showers.

 

Shall I get net weather radar?

[andymusic]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Will we see much snow tomorrow do you think? Looks like there will be a lot of showers.

 

Shall I get net weather radar?

up to you Jay but the free version on here does give shower movements and also whether it's rain/sleet/snow - but if you'd like the extras go for it

[andymusic]

meto latest

Today:

Cloudy and wet at first, but rain will quickly clear allowing drier, brighter and colder conditions to develop. Strong northwesterly winds will bring snow showers into Wales by the evening. Maximum temperature 13 °C.

Tonight:

Blustery snow showers will continue through the evening and overnight leading to some significant accumulations, particularly over higher ground, and some icy stretches by dawn. Minimum temperature -3 °C.

Friday:

Friday will remain windy and bitterly cold with snow showers continuing to blow across Wales with further accumulations. Outside of the snow showers there will be bright sunshine. Maximum temperature 5 °C

 

[andymusic]

still looking fab for the rest of December and into the new year if you like cold weather

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Dec 2017 to Wednesday 20 Dec 2017:

Monday will see outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow, most likely across central and southern parts at first, clearing to brighter skies and wintry showers. Further accumulations of snow are most likely in central and northern areas. By midweek, we may see another spell of rain, sleet and snow moving east across many parts for a time. Otherwise, a changeable period with bright spells and wintry showers, these most frequent in the north and west. There is a continued risk of snow accumulations for all areas, either from showers or more organised frontal bands moving in from off the Atlantic. Some strong winds at times, especially in the west and northwest. Probably staying cold, with overnight frost and ice, with perhaps less cold interludes possible, especially in the south.

UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Dec 2017 to Thursday 4 Jan 2018:

Slow-moving or blocked weather patterns are likely to dominate for the rest of December and into the early part of January. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier periods and shorter lived milder, wetter and windier interludes. Snow is likely at times, especially in more northern and central parts of the UK. There remains some uncertainty in regards to which pattern will be most dominant during this period. Overall temperatures will probably be below average, but with some milder spells.

Edited December 7, 2017 by andymusic

[DeepSnow]

Looking forward to the next 24hrs or so especially as I'm off work today and tomorrow, shame I'm in work over the weekend. Will be radar watching tomorrow to see where those showers go and may take a nice half hour drive up to the Bwlch Y Clawdd Road which is around 340M asl if the showers end up absorbed by the mountains to see some snow.

[Jayfromcardiff]

4 minutes ago, DeepSnow said:

Looking forward to the next 24hrs or so especially as I'm off work today and tomorrow, shame I'm in work over the weekend. Will be radar watching tomorrow to see where those showers go and may take a nice half hour drive up to the Bwlch Y Clawdd Road which is around 340M asl if the showers end up absorbed by the mountains to see some snow.

I'm off today and tomorrow too, can't beat it especially when there's snow on the way. Enjoy.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Looking at the latest output from Euro 4/Meto Warnings pretty much anywhere in Wales could see a covering if you catch a few snow showers, 10-20cm for certain spots where streamers set up across NW Wales heading South East into parts of Mid/South East Wales:

Euro 4 precipitation:

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, SnowStorm(Jamie) said:

Looking at the latest output from Euro 4/Meto Warnings pretty much anywhere in Wales could see a covering if you catch a few snow showers, 10-20cm for certain spots where streamers set up across NW Wales heading South East into parts of Mid/South East Wales:

Euro 4 precipitation:

That looks alright, an inch of snow would be good anyway.

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

That looks alright, an inch of snow would be good anyway.

anything to start the ball rolling this winter - don't forget we're only 7 days into the official start of winter anyway with another 83 official days to go along with our normally tacked on March of a further potential 31 days - so loads of winter to go yet - 114 to be exact - 114 chances for snow and a good third of that has already got a wedge of authority stamped on it for cold/wintry weather by the meto

[JamesL]

Following on from my previous posts re slider position. The most recent 06z Arpege has it perfectly aligned so that most of what falls in Wales, will be snow 

Edited December 7, 2017 by JamesL

[andymusic]

12 minutes ago, JamesL said:

Following on from my previous posts re slider position. The most recent 06z Arpege has it perfectly aligned so that most of what falls in Wales, will be snow 

thank you for that James - if it does come to pass that we get it spot on we could be digging ourselves out for days

[Jayfromcardiff]

17 minutes ago, JamesL said:

Following on from my previous posts re slider position. The most recent 06z Arpege has it perfectly aligned so that most of what falls in Wales, will be snow 

Is this model even thought of? I thought they only take notice of the ECM etc.

[Summerstorm]

Looking pretty good up here BBC and MetO forecasting quite a bit of snow throughout the day here starting around 3 or 4 in morning  and going through to midnight on Friday reckon around here (Wrexham/Denbighshire/Flintshire) and into Shropshire and Staffordshire could do quite well off this. 

[andymusic]

15 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Is this model even thought of? I thought they only take notice of the ECM etc.

track of this slider still isn't a done deal yet so the possibilities of too far north/south/east/west are all still on the table but this arpege shows how if it's just spot on Wales will get a dumping - but from most of the model runs somewhere in Wales could very well see a foot or more of the white stuff, it would be lovely to see the extremeties in the south get there fair share too - arriving early hours of the morning could aid keeping it wintry and also any snow we've already had from the showers will help keep the air nice and frigid

[JamesL]

.....And following on from the Arpege we now have the 06z NavGem Folliwing suit. 

This is FAR from a done deal yet 

[JamesL]

8 minutes ago, andymusic said:

track of this slider still isn't a done deal yet so the possibilities of too far north/south/east/west are all still on the table but this arpege shows how if it's just spot on Wales will get a dumping - but from most of the model runs somewhere in Wales could very well see a foot or more of the white stuff, it would be lovely to see the extremeties in the south get there fair share too - arriving early hours of the morning could aid keeping it wintry and also any snow we've already had from the showers will help keep the air nice and frigid

I think we can now say with some certainty that some parts of Wales will have some of their heaviest falls since 2010/2013 

[andymusic]

here's something funny from the Scottish thread where "horizontal hail/sleet/snow" is already falling lol -  About the model thread lol - "unless of course they then decide to start the 'north or south of M4 corridor' cr*p. Everyone south of the M4 would be as happy as a turkey at Christmas and Everyone north would be as happy as a monkey In a banana truck"

[Jayfromcardiff]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/cf23 - I'll bank that forecast for where I live lol. It's crazy, heavy snow forecast even though i'm on the outskirts.

[Stevetynant]

Best winter forecast I've seen for some time 

Sunday has heavy rain at the moment but fair play plenty to get excited about

 

[JamesL]

5 minutes ago, Stevetynant said:

Best winter forecast I've seen for some time 

Sunday has heavy rain at the moment but fair play plenty to get excited about

 

Wouldn't be surprised for you to see snow Sunday tbh. You got a bit of elevation there at between 2-300m