Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Jackfrost]

Reading the MOD thread, you'd think that poor Wales doesn't exist. It's all "Midlands northwards" and "no snow in the South". Even the lovely chart above, posted by @A Frayed Knot is described as showing troughs passing down through England. 

[andymusic]

6 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

Reading the MOD thread, you'd think that poor Wales doesn't exist. It's all "Midlands northwards" and "no snow in the South". Even the lovely chart above, posted by @A Frayed Knot is described as showing troughs passing down through England. 

nothing ever changes - we live in Narnia - think they get a little jealous cause we got the altitude with our mountains and benefit from these in these conditions, so they like to forget about us, cause we're having all the fun lol - don't worry jackfrost just enjoy and feel sorry for them lol

[andymusic]

2 hours ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

What I'd give for another repeat of 2010! Does anyone think showers will merge on Friday to form a band of snow?

you never know jay a lovely streamer could set up or like on the faxs - a nice front will cross all of us and drop a nice covering for the weekend

[Jackfrost]

The 12Z is thankfully looking much rosier for all of Wales away from the west and southwest, due to everything having shifted to the south and west. Further southwesterly adjustments will hopefully (and are fairly likely to) occur, ensuring that more of us stay safely on the cold side of the jet.

Edited December 6, 2017 by Jackfrost

[keithlucky]

Met office again struggles with nortern blocking again further west with rain/snow ,event Sunday ,expect further west adjustments( the rain / snow event may not even get any furher east than Wales)interesting weather watching in the coming days.Met Outlook  Windy and bitterly cold with sunshine and scattered snow showers on Friday and Saturday, leading to some accumulations. Cloudier on Sunday with rain, sleet and perhaps some snow later.

[freeze for all]

I can c the warnings being taken off today for our area on Friday 

[Cymro]

1 minute ago, freeze for all said:

I can c the warnings being taken off today for our area on Friday 

I can’t see that happening with a NWtly component to the wind and strong winds at that expect plenty of showers to cross the beacons, relief might actually enhance precipitation for your area! Id expect at this stage at least 5cm to fall quite widely across Wales away from town centres of Swansea, Cardiff and Newport and coastal areas i.e within a mile or two from the coast! 

 

This looks like our best chance in a long while! 

[bradymk]

Yes the slider probably isn’t going to deliver the goods for most of Wales although you will probably see some snow on leading edge and maybe later Sunday and into Monday. Still time for corrections 

Friday though, very cold and snow to all levels. 2-5cm but will definitely vary place to place! I would say the whole country has a good chance of seeing snow on Friday at some stage. Lets see

[Snowyowl9]

Sunday now looks very snowy from the GFS from that slight easterly.

Colder air returns from the north after.

[Cymro]

I agree, re the slider experience tells us that if it can get cold enough friday to Sunday with surface cold building this will also impact it’s track, currently think it will clip the west of us with us seeing mostly moderate snowfall depending on wind direction. Dont see a rain fes5 Sunday as yet and all subject to change. However band of snow now looking likely Thursday evening which would deliver a few cm across majority of Wales before the fun and games with showers even start! 

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, Cymro said:

I agree, re the slider experience tells us that if it can get cold enough friday to Sunday with surface cold building this will also impact it’s track, currently think it will clip the west of us with us seeing mostly moderate snowfall depending on wind direction. Dont see a rain fes5 Sunday as yet and all subject to change. However band of snow now looking likely Thursday evening which would deliver a few cm across majority of Wales before the fun and games with showers even start! 

Didn't know there was a band of snow due to cross us? 

Is this some sort of trough? Do you expect warnings to be updated to reflect?

[andymusic]

28 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Didn't know there was a band of snow due to cross us? 

Is this some sort of trough? Do you expect warnings to be updated to reflect?

warnings are already in place with Derek adding the 2-5cm or couple of inches widely across Wales to start things off - sunday looking better already but will still be nowcast as the slider hits Wales

it begins - notice wind direction bringing showers right across Wales

Edited December 6, 2017 by andymusic

[bradymk]

28 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Didn't know there was a band of snow due to cross us? 

Is this some sort of trough? Do you expect warnings to be updated to reflect?

I moved from Pembrokeshire to Cardiff in late 2013. I haven’t seen any falling snow at all in Cardiff during that time. 

I think this is the best chance since i’ve been here. Yes it’s not going to be December 2010, but -10/-11c uppers Friday, sub minus dew points for whole country. Anything that falls from sky will be snow. 

The only problem with Cardiff and showers is they do tend to die out to the north of the city on higher ground 

[bradymk]

Big correction south west on GFS 6z for Sunday. Things will get very excited in here if this run is on the money. 

[beatpete]

Looking great, slightly worried at this rate of SW correction, by Sunday it will miss uk all together, Mon looks amazing too atm

 

[Blackjack]

Well, well. If the slider stays on this track most of Wales will be pummeled. It's going to be nail biting as we edge closer to Sunday.

If it does correct further SW then hopefully this will allow colder air to dig further south which could bring further riches and more chance of prolonged cold into next week, if not snow for Sun-Mon

[andymusic]

gfs6z - as above hits us square on but will it drop south west any more? or keep it's track solid?

[Cymro]

40 minutes ago, andymusic said:

gfs6z - as above hits us square on but will it drop south west any more? or keep it's track solid?

Past xperience teaches s this will chop and change until the very day personally would prefer it to track slightly further south west again to guarantee Wales stays on the right side of Marginal but also taps into some energy from the low to create hefty snow showers! 

[Cymro]

Also worth noting as I said last night warning now updated and includes the words 2-5cm quite widely (Caerdydd too Jay)  with up to 20cm in places! 

[Cymro]

2 hours ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Didn't know there was a band of snow due to cross us? 

Is this some sort of trough? Do you expect warnings to be updated to reflect?

Note the line below 1008 thats an ocluded front passing over Wales Thursday night which will generate more organised snowfall for almost everywhere in Wales hence the updated Warnings! 

Edited December 6, 2017 by Cymro

[georgiedre]

Just now, Cymro said:

Note the line below 1008 thats an ocluded front passing over Wales Thursday night which will generate more organised snowfall for almost everywhere in Wales hence the updated Warnings! 

The cold weather and snow will come after this for low ground. But there should be more troughs afterwards. Hopefully being in nw Wales I'm in an idial spot

[Jayfromcardiff]

3 minutes ago, Cymro said:

Note the line below 1008 thats an ocluded front passing over Wales Thursday night which will generate more organised snowfall for almost everywhere in Wales hence the updated Warnings! 

Looking good now! Hopefully a 50 mile correction southwards so that we stay on the cold side and there's no marginality. If we get no snow from this I'm going to find another hobby as its been 7 years since the last decent snowfall here.

[Cymro]

1 minute ago, georgiedre said:

The cold weather and snow will come after this for low ground. But there should be more troughs afterwards. Hopefully being in nw Wales I'm in an idial spot

Erbyn bydd y ffrynt hwn yn cyrraedd bydd rhan fwyaf o Gymru dan aer oer ddigon oer am eira yn sicr! Bendant! Gwynedd yn  mynd i gael hamrad go iawn! 

Prime spot in North Wales but when this occluded front arrives Wales will already be under the influence of artic air and pre ipitation should fall as snow. 

 

[Sionzzz]

Being in lowland north wales I’d be happy with just a small covering on either day! My daughter is 6 and she’s never seen a snow cover of more than 1cm! 

[andymusic]

looking good

Yellow Warning of Snow and Ice for Wales

 

Yellow Warning of Snow and Ice for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan & Wrexham valid from 0005 Fri 08 Dec to 1800 Sat 09 Dec

 

During Friday, increasingly frequent snow showers already affecting northern Scotland and Northern Ireland will extend across many other northern and western parts of the UK. 2-5 cm of snow is likely fairly widely, with 10-20 cm in places, mainly northern Scotland, Northern Ireland, north Wales and perhaps the northwest Midlands. Icy surfaces are also likely to be an additional hazard, especially overnight. The heaviest and most frequent snow showers will progressively become confined to northeast Scotland during Saturday. Possible travel delays on roads stranding some vehicles and passengers with possible delays and cancellations to rail and air travel. Some rural communities could be cut off and power supplies interrupted. Probably some icy stretches on some untreated roads, pavements and cycle paths. Some injuries from slips and falls on icy and snowy surfaces. This warning has been updated to increase the impact level from low to medium.

 

meto really going into detail there

 

Thursdays Brecon beacons forecast

Heavy rain and severe gales during the early hours. Turning drier, brighter and colder during the morning with isolated wintry showers, the showers more frequent and widespread later and turning to snow at most levels during the evening. Winds turning into the west, strong to gale force at height with a severe wind chill.

 

meto nicely on fence but going for precip of one kind or another for sunday - so maybe not likely to miss us

A mainly dry, clear and cold start. Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow pushing in from the west later.

Edited December 6, 2017 by andymusic