Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[freeze for all]

1 hour ago, WINTRY WALES said:

So what are peeps thoughts this morning?? We need the EC to come in line for me....South East Wales not looking so great in my opinion ?. Set up like this usually result in the showers hitting the west coast of Wales, get eaten up my mountains in Mid Wales or running through the Cheshire gap and missing us to the East!! Actually apart from a front approaching from the south west in to cold embedded air....I don't know what set up is best for South Eastern Wales counties...any ideas?

Cheers

WW

I'd say things r not looking favourable for us at the mo I think we r going to b dry and sunny but hoping to b proved wrong

[Jayfromcardiff]

This has 2010 written all over it! I remember that polar low coming down from the NW and constantly feeding heavy snow through the valleys towards Cardiff and it didn't stop all day. There's bound to be disturbances throughout this cold spell, since when have models accurately predicted the exact distribution of PPN throughout a cold spell.

[Sionzzz]

Weather warning for snow issued 

Edited December 5, 2017 by Sionzzz

[andymusic]

yep as above

Yellow Warning of Snow and Ice for Wales

 

Yellow Warning of Snow and Ice for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan & Wrexham valid from 0005 Fri 08 Dec to 1800 Sat 09 Dec

 

so - is that everyone covered now lol

Edited December 5, 2017 by andymusic

[andymusic]

2 hours ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

This has 2010 written all over it! I remember that polar low coming down from the NW and constantly feeding heavy snow through the valleys towards Cardiff and it didn't stop all day. There's bound to be disturbances throughout this cold spell, since when have models accurately predicted the exact distribution of PPN throughout a cold spell.

never - absolutely right Jay - anywhere could be in for some snow with this up and coming artic blast

and the slider potential for Wales from about Sunday onwards is also enormous - we could be in a right ol mess with up to a foot of snow and drifts if and I mean if the correct slider comes in in the right way - and models and even forecasters won't have a complete handle on this till very close to 0 hour

Edited December 5, 2017 by andymusic

[Pembroke Dangler]

Same as 2013 when just 2 days before they had South Wales all rain and by just 12 hours before it adjusted South and we had red warnings out.

[Jayfromcardiff]

3 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

Same as 2013 when just 2 days before they had South Wales all rain and by just 12 hours before it adjusted South and we had red warnings out.

Hope for the same again! 

It's almost certain that somewhere will get a pasting but no one will know until the day. Just keep watching the radar.

[Marcus_surfer]

I would make the most of friday/saturdays cold, mainly dry weather with a chance of snow showers as next week looks very wet in the  south

[Jackfrost]

All subject to change of course, especially at this duration, but it's a bit concerning that the last few days worth of runs have been very persistent in a) keeping the snow largely away from Southeast Wales and b) delivering the goods from next week's sliders to the Midlands and Northern England, leaving Wales largely very wet.

Edited December 5, 2017 by Jackfrost

[valley blue_501]

7 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

I would make the most of friday/saturdays cold, mainly dry weather with a chance of snow showers as next week looks very wet in the  south

Really? I think most if not all forecasters are having problems forecasting the weather at the moment. And anything beyond 5 days is pointless. 

[Snowyowl9]

GFS is all over the place lately but seems to be following ECM by the end of it all.

 

[Cymro]

34 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

I would make the most of friday/saturdays cold, mainly dry weather with a chance of snow showers as next week looks very wet in the  south

Mainly dry? hardly so even Swansea should do well here! i.e the lows next week don’t concentrate on them until atleast Friday pm! Before then most of Wales should see some snow with favoured spots having a good few inches! Come on its gonna be great  

[freeze for all]

I can' believe MET O have put warnings out already, it's still 3 days away and things can change a lot in that timescale 

[Pembroke Dangler]

20 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

I can' believe MET O have put warnings out already, it's still 3 days away and things can change a lot in that timescale 

They must be pretty confident of heavy showers pushing down Irish Sea coast in organised troughs I would think and also I just been on the met office most recent video forecast and the winds did have more of a northerly look about them rather than north westerly which could be better for Irish Sea streamers to get further south and more of a chance of them getting over the beacons further south.

[andymusic]

31 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

I can' believe MET O have put warnings out already, it's still 3 days away and things can change a lot in that timescale 

they are only yellow - so are intial "safety" warnings for something that might or might not happen - but - and here's the but - meto do have slightly better advantages in seeing what might occur - so certainly pay attention to what they have to say - for some reason it does seem to get a little lost in translation when tracked across to the BBC forecasters - it may well be that the local/and national forecasters are given some leeway to put some "personal" spin on the forecasts - this maybe where things go awry a bit - who knows - but keep eyes peeled on meto website - and come the day it's radar watching as usual -- should be a lot of fun - I know the warnings are for Friday and Saturday but actually models are showing that snow showers may well kick off from Thursday evening - 6pm onwards - so only 2 days away

Edited December 5, 2017 by andymusic

[KidCarm]

Can't wait to see some falling snow on Friday, not expecting much to stick on the south coast of Carms.  I've kept an eye on the ensembles and they've been trending to less cold air with us being on the wrong side of the lows coming in imo.  Will make the most of it on Friday, People further north and east may catch some snow though. 

Not getting carried away with the excitement of the model thread as they are imby posts for england mostly. 

So wish we could have the dumping GFS teased us with last week.

[keithlucky]

I cannot understand all the negative comments .the last time we had snow cover North and South Wales was 2010, starting from Thursday night and Friday and Saturday heavy snow showers with possible streamers setting up in a very cold brisk North wind  ENJOY. FridaySaturday

Edited December 5, 2017 by keithlucky

[KidCarm]

Don't get me wrong, i'm excited for Friday I've been counting down the days to see some snow falling, I've read these forums more than I've actually done work that I'm paid to do this week. 

It's just that i can see people getting excited and i'm pleased for them but I've been disappointed too many times when snow is in the forecast for this area.  Where as mid and north Wales could have snow into next week, Friday into Saturday is what i can see us having here.

[andymusic]

Derek "the weather" - tonights offering on the beeb and I quote - 2-5cms or a couple of inches on offer in Wales - certainly a start over this Thursday night/Friday and Saturday - after that we shall see where it goes from there

[PompeyFC]

9 hours ago, freeze for all said:

I'd say things r not looking favourable for us at the mo I think we r going to b dry and sunny but hoping to b proved wrong

oi oi a fellow Llanharan bod

[DeepSnow]

It will certainly be an interesting and exciting end to the week coming up, though I will admit for now I am remaining with a fair amount of caution as to lower ground South Wales (to avoid any of my own disappointment) when it comes to snow for the 'slider low' and what comes after, hopefully thing's will move to the right side of marginal more securely for us all over the coming days. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

8 minutes ago, DeepSnow said:

It will certainly be an interesting and exciting end to the week coming up, though I will admit for now I am remaining with a fair amount of caution as to lower ground South Wales (to avoid any of my own disappointment) when it comes to snow for the 'slider low' and what comes after, hopefully thing's will move to the right side of marginal more securely for us all over the coming days. 

Same here, always a chance it'll change and come Friday it'll be restricted to above 100m. It's happened too many times.

[Jayfromcardiff]

What I'd give for another repeat of 2010! Does anyone think showers will merge on Friday to form a band of snow?

[georgiedre]

Probably more showers than last week but we had plenty in nw Wales even from a Pembrokeshire dangler. Hopefully we will be in prime location

[A Frayed Knot]

Snow for Wales going by this then .