Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[bradymk]

2 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Hmm looks like they skirt to the north.

 

Am i right in saying winds turn more northwesterly by midnight, this will change shower distrubution

Correct, a bit too WNW at the moment, for some of us. 

[Marcus_surfer]

A little flurry here

I want the wind to turn more NNW

[keithlucky]

Snowing steady in Swansea

[Icequeen]

And in morriston again 

[Marcus_surfer]

Argh send it a bit south peeps

[bradymk]

Monmouth in the sweet spot for now. Nice little streamer setting up for there

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, bradythemole said:

Monmouth in the sweet spot for now. Nice little streamer setting up for there

What do you think for snow later? Surely there'll be more showers about after midnight to warrant the weather warning.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Already had 2 light snow showers here in Swansea, as always showers will be hit and miss.

The flow is current WNW as shown here on the Euro 4:

 

 

It should start to veer to a NW/NNW flow by midnight:

 

 

[bradymk]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

What do you think for snow later? Surely there'll be more showers about after midnight to warrant the weather warning.

Winds are going to swing more north westerly through the night which is good news for Cardiff and Swansea. It's cold enough now, there's a lot of precipitation around and even more activity over Ireland than earlier. I'd certainly be optimistic to wake up to a dusting. More organised band may affect South Wales around 2/3am. We'll see, hoping anything will settle instantly with the temps now, so we just need the showers. Places like Cwmbran, ebbw vale, Tredegar, Monmouth, parts of Swansea seen some showers already. Hopefully more to come! 

[bradymk]

Jay that shower that went through Swansea is becoming more organised and not dying yet so Cardiff could see its first snow in not too long!!

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, bradythemole said:

Winds are going to swing more north westerly through the night which is good news for Cardiff and Swansea. It's cold enough now, there's a lot of precipitation around and even more activity over Ireland than earlier. I'd certainly be optimistic to wake up to a dusting. More organised band may affect South Wales around 2/3am. We'll see, hoping anything will settle instantly with the temps now, so we just need the showers. Places like Cwmbran, ebbw vale, Tredegar, Monmouth, parts of Swansea seen some showers already. Hopefully more to come! 

My girlfriends not happy and thinks I'm sad checking this every 5 minutes lol. She doesn't understand how exciting it is.

[pyrotech]

Jay

For Cardiff we are watching for shower activity in the current flow just North of Carmathen.

 The one that went thru there recently was large and was North and South of carmarthen and the lower part just hit Swansea

If that stays potent then Cardiff may get a slight covering in the hour

 

Later tonight the chances increase again.

Talking a Cm or two thou not huge amounts, but id take that after the last few years

[benb]

I find the predictive radar on the Met Office I-Phone app quite useful for getting an idea of where showers might develop; it's not perfect but it's not often far wrong.

Currrently, it's showing a clump of showers for the SW 1-3am...

[bradymk]

This is going to very close with this shower for Cardiff. Praying it's intensity stays and it's track stays the same as currently. 

[Pembroke Dangler]

A line of showers just coming into cardigan now on its way 

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, pyrotech said:

Jay

For Cardiff we are watching for shower activity in the current flow just North of Carmathen.

 The one that went thru there recently was large and was North and South of carmarthen and the lower part just hit Swansea

If that stays potent then Cardiff may get a slight covering in the hour

 

Later tonight the chances increase again.

Talking a Cm or two thou not huge amounts, but id take that after the last few years

Anything will do, my birthday saturday so will be a nice early present.

[bradymk]

I think it's going to miss Cardiff to the west, can you believe it?! Looks a good shower too. Hard to tell

[freeze for all]

First snowfall of the winter here

[Lisa34]

Snowing in aberdare

[pyrotech]

2 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

I think it's going to miss Cardiff to the west, can you believe it?! Looks a good shower too. Hard to tell

No if intensity stays its right on track, probably just passed Bridgend now on leading front and heading towards Pontyclun

The intensity as it comes closer is the risk

 

[willitbsunny]

Over me at the moment in Brynna

[pyrotech]

Jay

its moderate snow now in west cardiff

Culverhousecross area

[Jayfromcardiff]

Looks like it'll miss Cardiff. Hopefully later tonight fingers crossed we'll get snow.

[benb]

Showers backing up a bit in Cardigan Bay/ end of LLyn Peninsula now...

Too far north and wrong wind direction, currently, for my location but looking a bit more streamer-like, heading Aberystwyth(ish) way.

Waiting for the wind to shift round a bit more for here.

[Cymro]

is there a mild sector in the flow? Lot of disappointed irish and looking at radar shows far more sleet around pembrokeshire now..... :/