Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[EastAnglian]

First wintery shower just starting here in Bleanau soft hail I think but sky very dark to the north. Small shower cell on the radar but it is a start.

[keithlucky]

2 hours ago, EastAnglian said:

First wintery shower just starting here in Bleanau soft hail I think but sky very dark to the north. Small shower cell on the radar but it is a start.

Showers activity should increase in potency and become more frequent after midnight ,figures crossed  we all see some before tommorow more general sleet,snow by mid morning,as you said its a start.

Edited January 11, 2017 by keithlucky

[A Frayed Knot]

If we don't get any Snow here tomorrow then i will be in complete shock as it is absolutely BITTER OUTSIDE .Brrrrrr

[freeze for all]

Not looking good for lower levels

[Cwmbran Eira]

3 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

Not looking good for lower levels

I love Del but isn't he just telling us what the auto updated forecasts are showing. Just in case we don't know what the symbols mean

[A Frayed Knot]

Rain and Sleet in Brecon ? Yeh ok '

No chance at all Snow in Brecon ' easy .

[RhysWales]

1 hour ago, A Frayed Knot said:

If we don't get any Snow here tomorrow then i will be in complete shock as it is absolutely BITTER OUTSIDE .Brrrrrr

Not looking great. The front looks like it'll move through before we get anywhere near snow in south Wales. East of Oxford and SE is the best bet by the looks of things. Typical! Next week I still think could be interesting though.

[RhysWales]

18 minutes ago, Cwmbran Eira said:

I love Del but isn't he just telling us what the auto updated forecasts are showing. Just in case we don't know what the symbols mean

Have always noticed this with his tweets. I tend to look at Ian Ferguson's as a lot more insightful!

[PompeyFC]

9 hours ago, freeze for all said:

Higher ground snow lower levels wintry mix mainly rain or sleet is wot I c for this 

Am up from Portsmouth staying with the missus in llanharan. Typical it looks like Portsmouth will get snow and we won't here

[andymusic]

53 minutes ago, RhysWales said:

Have always noticed this with his tweets. I tend to look at Ian Ferguson's as a lot more insightful!

Over the years Derek has come across a bit slap dash and lazy - reason why at times especially with marginal set ups like this he gets it or has got it extremely wrong - and the bit above about the beacons getting or not getting snow in set ups like this - if pen y fan doesn't get a flake or six tomorrow i'll eat my hat - and i've just been out shopping for a hat this afternoon down macarthur glen shopping centre lol, but like I say the weather can make fools of us all at the best of times - so lets wait and see what actually happens tomorrow shall we before we all get despondent and upset and depressed and throwing our toys out of the pram before the event has even started - one good thing it does feel bitter out tonight under our wonderful full moon - so who knows

Edited January 11, 2017 by andymusic

[andymusic]

in between these two there could be snow as the front moves through

[Cymro]

7 minutes ago, andymusic said:

Over the years Derek has come across a bit slap dash and lazy - reason why at times especially with marginal set ups like this he gets it or has got it extremely wrong - and the bit above about the beacons getting or not getting snow in set ups like this - if pen y fan doesn't get a flake or six tomorrow i'll eat my hat - and i've just been out shopping for a hat this afternoon down macarthur glen shopping centre lol, but like I say the weather can make fools of us all at the best of times - so lets wait and see what actually happens tomorrow shall we before we all get despondent and upset and depressed and throwing our toys out of the pram before the event has even started - one good thing it does feel bitter out tonight under our wonderful full moon - so who knows

Yes over the years even in 2010 Derek has proved rather ummm dubious with wintry weather. I think he's a mildy myself...If most of Wales bar the far south coast fails to scrape atleast 2/3cm I'll eat Pen y Fan!

Edited January 11, 2017 by Cymro

[ourson]

Just now, Cymro said:

Yes over the years even in 2010 Derek has proved rather ummm dubious with wintry weather. I think he's a mildy myself...If most of Wales bar the far south coast fails to scrape atleast 2/3cm I'll eat Pen y Fan!

Hope you're right Cymro. Would be fab to see some snow following a few barren winters!

[Cymro]

6 minutes ago, ourson said:

Hope you're right Cymro. Would be fab to see some snow following a few barren winters!

I often get frustrated when a Nwstly is forecast for the Uk and Wales is overlooked...Wales is prime location in scenarios like this....far enough north in battle grounds usually and full of shower potential....I remember Swansea having quite a bit of snow in Jan 2013 if my memory serves me well due to the great Welsh snow machine that is the pembrokeshire dangler...slight change in wind direction and showers can move nearly West>East or circle see Dec 2010 as prime example. Chin up pawb...eira ar y ffordd a digon ohono fe!! 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Cymro

[bradymk]

Looking forward to Euro4 18z but I'm confident of seeing falling snow in Cardiff tomorrow at least. I imagine the last half hour/hour of the rain band will turn to snow to quite low levels even here. Some more rural parts of Wales, particularly Brecon/Merthyr etc could have quite a few hours of snowfall.

It will all come down to the strength/depth of the low, as that will determine how much cold air it will drag into circulation. Quicker the cold air moves down from north west, more chance of it turning to snow.

Some very heavy rain to come in the morning anyway, a period of precip moving south eastwards later on Thursday evening/early Friday morning too that needs watching. Looks like passing through Carmarthenshire, Swansea down into SW England. 

[Pembroke Dangler]

11 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Looking forward to Euro4 18z but I'm confident of seeing falling snow in Cardiff tomorrow at least. I imagine the last half hour/hour of the rain band will turn to snow to quite low levels even here. Some more rural parts of Wales, particularly Brecon/Merthyr etc could have quite a few hours of snowfall.

It will all come down to the strength/depth of the low, as that will determine how much cold air it will drag into circulation. Quicker the cold air moves down from north west, more chance of it turning to snow.

Some very heavy rain to come in the morning anyway, a period of precip moving south eastwards later on Thursday evening/early Friday morning too that needs watching. Looks like passing through Carmarthenshire, Swansea down into SW England. 

Could be a dangler setting up and if the convection off the Irish Sea gets going could get some decent cumulonimbus clouds and dare I say it, thunder snow a possibility.

[bradymk]

15 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

Could be a dangler setting up and if the convection off the Irish Sea gets going could get some decent cumulonimbus clouds and dare I say it, thunder snow a possibility.

Yes although looking at the wind direction, probably a shower line more cardigan bay down to Swansea rather than a true Pembrokeshire Dangler from a straight northerly. I wouldn't be too disheartened if the band of precipitation in the daytime doesn't deliver, particularly if you live Port Talbot and further west. 

[Pembroke Dangler]

3 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Yes although looking at the wind direction, probably a shower line more cardigan bay down to Swansea rather than a true Pembrokeshire Dangler from a straight northerly. I wouldn't be too disheartened if the band of precipitation in the daytime doesn't deliver, particularly if you live Port Talbot and further west. 

Sweet spots look like Aberystwyth in a line through to swansea (imby hopefully) even a dusting will do I'm not greedy when it's been nearly 5 years since I seen a flake here

[bradymk]

Area of precip well worth watching early hours of Friday.

[Fujita scale]

I think the tumbleweed in our thread says it all! As per usual can't see a lot to behold tomorrow unless you are at the higher elevations.

Always knew the northerly direction would not help us out.

Ah well, let's get some sleep before I get up for work tomorrow and spend the day seeing either depressed people or myself being depressed by other regions doing so well and getting our snow

Edited January 11, 2017 by Fujita scale

[Cymro]

2 minutes ago, Fujita scale said:

I think the tumbleweed in our thread says it all! As per usual can't see a lot to behold tomorrow unless you are at the higher elevations.

Always knew the northerly direction would not help us out.

Ah well, let's get some sleep before I get up for work tomorrow and spend the day seeing either depressed people or myself being depressed by other regions doing so well and getting our snow

Im sorry but this is the best chance we've had in maybe 3 years in Wales for widespread settling snow...I really don't understand the lack of opptimism! If the front fails the showers afterwards will be potent and certainly deliver in just about anywhere in Wales! 

[welshwizard]

Don't know why but I think this cold air will kick in further than we think. I just been out and its very cold. I still think only high ground will see snow. We in Wales do not normally see much snow let's be honest. But maybe this yr be Different.

[bradymk]

Cardiff Airport Taff forecast is rain/snow for 14 to 17 UTC tomorrow, heavy rain before that but promising. Right on the coast too.

I think most in Wales will see falling snow at least at some point tomorrow, be that from showers or the afternoon precip band. 

[Cymro]

Just now, welshwizard said:

Don't know why but I think this cold air will kick in further than we think. I just been out and its very cold. I still think only high ground will see snow. We in Wales do not normally see much snow let's be honest. But maybe this yr be Different.

Again I don't understand this comment if you look at climate averages maps of Uk regarding snowfall you will find that Wales does really well. Setups like these i.e Nwstly with convection off the irish sea with unstable airflow and precipitation pepping up just about anywhere delivers the best snowfalls in Wales....the MAd thread would have you believe the easterly is the holy grail...for south easterners and people in eastern uk yes but us in Wales not so much...easterlies are generally dry here! Chin up its going to be great and I'm certainly looking forward to tomorrow evening in particular!! 

[andymusic]

this is just the start of our "proper" winter - i've a feeling we got loads to come between now and march before spring arrives the way the models are currently churning out the good stuff - believe and it will happen