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A.J

By A.J
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sundog Seasoned

sundog

Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
Posted
3 hours ago, sundog said:

we have seen it happen many times in the past with potential for a decent cold spell when the ukmo goes againest the ecm and gfs and ends up being correct and then the ecm and gfs fall into line with it. Hopefully this wont be one of those occasions.

Im cautiously optimistic.

So looks like the latest gfs has now fallen more into line with the ukmo, bloody typical. Interesting to see what the ecm shows later.

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted
4 hours ago, Rocheydub said:

Until UKMO NWP is on board, I'm not popping any champagne corks yet folks. It's kind of knife edge stuff getting past 96hrs run where it all develops.

We'll know more this evening!

I have now put the champagne firmly away for at least 3 more days!

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Sperrin Rising Star

Sperrin

Posted
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
Posted

The 12z op is a big mild outlier, just like the crazy 6z the other day (it being an extreme cold outlier)

 

 

graphe3_1000___-7.3_54.6_Omagh.gif

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Downburst Seasoned

Downburst

Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
Posted

All very interesting. Always way too complex a situation to get anyway accurate past 5 days max. So don't go telling anyone as I used to, learned that 6 or 7 years ago. The move of high pressure from NW to Scandinavia in a weeks time - not an easy thing to happen, but it's looking good for some chance of cold and at least a dusting sometime next 10 days.

 

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Neiller22 Community Regular

Neiller22

Posted
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.
Posted
51 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Pretty poor runs for cold today. Back to looking for cold and snow in the 14 day plus timeframe.

Don't be so negative MS!:D not allowed on this forum 

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Downburst Seasoned

Downburst

Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
Posted

happy new year everyone, hope your wishes come through. For me, a record breaking 3 weeks of frigid cold in January. A dry and warm spring, a hot May and June, breaking records, a thundery July, with record breaking heat - literally killing people, followed by an August so Hot a nationwide emergency and time of work to top off the tans. A normal first week of September, followed by deep snow and early winter. In other words - the MOD threads basic expectations...

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted

Happy new year all you young Ireland'rs and the not so young!

As we say, "Athbhliain faoi mhaise doibh"!

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Sperrin Rising Star

Sperrin

Posted
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
Posted (edited)

Happy new year to all, hope you've had a good one! 

After the spectacular fail of the modelled cold plunge there appears to be tentative signs of a new horizon. With charts starting to suggest an increased chance of cold moving in from North/North West. This is reflected in the 6z ens spread from this mornings run which look good for cold for us in Ireland. Note the mean with uppers around -5 from 12th through to 17th. All for fun though at that range.

 

graphe3_1000___-7.3_54.6_Omagh.gif

Edited by Sperrin
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Sperrin Rising Star

Sperrin

Posted
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
Posted

 Good consistency over the last number of GFS runs regarding the NW plunge if colder air around the 11/12th. The mean still hanging around the -5 Mark out to the end of the run. Would be nice to see the other models jump on board. Usual caveats apply although it is moving closer to the reliable. 

 

graphe3_1000___-7.3_54.6_Omagh.gif

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
1 hour ago, Sperrin said:

 Good consistency over the last number of GFS runs regarding the NW plunge if colder air around the 11/12th. The mean still hanging around the -5 Mark out to the end of the run. Would be nice to see the other models jump on board. Usual caveats apply although it is moving closer to the reliable. 

 

graphe3_1000___-7.3_54.6_Omagh.gif

Problem is that the GEFS have been nigh on useless. Only a week or so since virtually every GEFS had a stonking Northerly showing for this weekend.

I have lost all faith in the GFS products in blocking situations.

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Problem is that the GEFS have been nigh on useless. Only a week or so since virtually every GEFS had a stonking Northerly showing for this weekend.

I have lost all faith in the GFS products in blocking situations.

Agreed. Did anyone post anything about the NOAA discussions regarding GFS during that model chaos? Can't find anything on it, but I like their analysis, it's usually spot on!

Edited by Rocheydub
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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted

A high of 4.2 today in my back garden but only stayed above freezing for 6 hours, back to -0.1 now. I fancy there'll be a heavy heavy frost in the morning!!

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sundog Seasoned

sundog

Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
Posted

A belated happy new year to all.

Hardly a cloud inthe sky today,lovely crisp day.

Cold starry night,temp -0.3c,my 3rd airfrost of the winter yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! Lol

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