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Posted
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
    39 minutes ago, Downburst said:

    Another hard frost last night and amazingly nearly running out of the Holts De - Icer (handier than warm water) and it's not even December. As ever my main wish is dry weather as I drive a lot and I'm enjoying this autumn no end on that front.

    The Netweather Winter forecast is a great read and gives some idea of how difficult it is to predict a season given the many variables and the interaction between them.

    As for the Model Forum, the mods need to get a handle on that and go to one or two of the more experienced posters who lead the ramping and have a word. The notion that a Short Wave "spoils" this or that is infuriating to me. A SW is an integral part of our weather system and isn't out to wreck a winter wonderland. Why can't they let the model run, take a sober look and make sensible comments only, lead by example.

    The majority of the country will be well satisfied with the weather forecast for the next week. Longer than that it has to be noted the Polar Vortex moves through next week over to the Canadian sector and we'll have to see what happens once it gets there.

     Brilliant post downburst same nonsense every year 

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    Victims of the 2017 Snow Blizzard Speak Out Some harrowing tales are emerging across the country this morning as the victims of the 2017 snow storm share their stories.  The whole of Norther

    Just saw total accumulation maps (for next 48hrs) from latest euro4 model. Think I peed myself a little!

    Guys - good luck with the snow potential over the next few days  cameras at the ready!

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    2 hours ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

    Bet you told friends and family as well,  totally jinxed it haven ye!!

    I did, and my sense of guilt is overwhelming.

    I suppose we now look ahead into the second week and mid December for any snow. The experts seem to think that's when Winter will arrive, so fingers crossed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    15 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

    One snow shovel for sale, brand new and never used.

    Reason for sale:- winter is over :nonono:

     

    :oops:

    To be fair, a snow shovel is actually very handy for picking up leaves!

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    Posted
  • Location: Nutts Corner
  • Location: Nutts Corner
    16 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    To be fair, a snow shovel is actually very handy for picking up leaves!

    This is the reason my dad got one.  He uses it all year round

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    Posted
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.

    If u follow met office further outlook don't bother looking at it. It's crap! Mentions blocked conditions but snow just for high ground. Massive downgrade from yest when it mentioned snow possible on low ground. So for those hoping for snow as soon as 2nd weekend in Dec i don't think it's going to happen. As much as i want it too as well! I honestly think this is going to be a chase like last year! Regardless if all these marvellous so called background signals! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Neiller22 said:

    If u follow met office further outlook don't bother looking at it. It's crap! Mentions blocked conditions but snow just for high ground. Massive downgrade from yest when it mentioned snow possible on low ground. So for those hoping for snow as soon as 2nd weekend in Dec i don't think it's going to happen. As much as i want it too as well! I honestly think this is going to be a chase like last year! Regardless if all these marvellous so called background signals! 

    They change these forecasts on a daily basis though depending on what their models are showing, it could change again tomorrow.

    If there is a block around the UK, depending on how far North it is and its orientation can make a huge difference. As you say though, looks like another chase for widespread snowfall, not as bad as last year though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.
    25 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    They change these forecasts on a daily basis though depending on what their models are showing, it could change again tomorrow.

    If there is a block around the UK, depending on how far North it is and its orientation can make a huge difference. As you say though, looks like another chase for widespread snowfall, not as bad as last year though.

    Very true. But the way it's been going I wouldn't hedge my bets!

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    2 hours ago, Neiller22 said:

    If u follow met office further outlook don't bother looking at it. It's crap! Mentions blocked conditions but snow just for high ground. Massive downgrade from yest when it mentioned snow possible on low ground. So for those hoping for snow as soon as 2nd weekend in Dec i don't think it's going to happen. As much as i want it too as well! I honestly think this is going to be a chase like last year! Regardless if all these marvellous so called background signals! 

    Don,t give up yet history tells us we always get a wet windy spell before the onset of something bigger the metoffice have been very bullish about this sticking there necks out. There must be clear signals for something colder the met have excess to better models than us.

    After all there,s still just under a week left of Nov, winter hasn't started yet patience is a virtue.:cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    1 hour ago, Neiller22 said:

    Hope so. NE winds will do me just fine being in east of Northern Ireland 

    NE isn't generally good for us Neiller, any moisture picked up from the North Sea tends to have dried out by the time it gets across here. SE is better, as the moisture can be lifted from the Irish Sea with a longer sea track than the North Channel in a NE.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.
    1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

    NE isn't generally good for us Neiller, any moisture picked up from the North Sea tends to have dried out by the time it gets across here. SE is better, as the moisture can be lifted from the Irish Sea with a longer sea track than the North Channel in a NE.

     

    Better than a NW which is woeful for the east. But I get your point 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.

    ECM showing temps in teens at times in Dec ! I will hedge my bets 'this will of course be right as it's cold we all want. And to be fair it's been quite good so far compared to the Ghastly Full of Shit (GFS) model! But we live in hope. 

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    Posted
  • Location: north monaghan 120mts[400ft]asl
  • Location: north monaghan 120mts[400ft]asl

    local station currently -3.4c so another big frost tonight. will be milder for next few days according to forcast with temps up to 7 or 8c.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry

    All frost and fog gone here after 3 ice days. Can't complain about that for mid November. Looking forward to December now. The models are all over the place at the minute but hopefully will firm up on something very soon. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

    UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Dec 2016 to Saturday 10 Dec 2016:

    We are likely to see outbreaks of rain and strong winds affecting northern parts of the UK to start the period, but it should be largely dry and fine with bright or sunny spells and light winds across the south. There will be some frost and freezing fog patches overnight where skies are clear. As we go into early December, as pressure remains high around the country, central and western areas are likely to be fine and dry with a threat of more unsettled conditions further east. With cold conditions becoming established across the country, there will be further overnight frost with the risk of some sleet and snow across northeastern parts, especially over higher ground.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.

    As I stated over a week ago I'm still struggling to see we're this expected mid Dec cold is coming from. Didnt buy it then don't buy it now! In fact I'm not sure there will be any cold in Dec worth talking about. It's just so so so difficult to get cold weather in this country in relation to snow. You literally need everything to fall perfectly and there such a big ask in my eyes. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    A rather boring couple of weeks ahead with high pressure dominant. Looks to be a cloudy high too, so frost not an issue for now.

    Its a case of looking ahead to the third week of December and beyond to see where our high migrates too.

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