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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    The 6z GFS yesterday was fantastic, today's was off the scale! The differences between the GFS and ECM are mind blowing. Whilst your head would normally think the ECM is correct, Glacier Point has indicated that the ECM is normally slower and picking up tropical influences and this could be a key as to which will be correct.

    This evening's 12z will be all important again.

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    Victims of the 2017 Snow Blizzard Speak Out Some harrowing tales are emerging across the country this morning as the victims of the 2017 snow storm share their stories.  The whole of Norther

    Just saw total accumulation maps (for next 48hrs) from latest euro4 model. Think I peed myself a little!

    Guys - good luck with the snow potential over the next few days  cameras at the ready!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    The 6z GFS yesterday was fantastic, today's was off the scale! The differences between the GFS and ECM are mind blowing. Whilst your head would normally think the ECM is correct, Glacier Point has indicated that the ECM is normally slower and picking up tropical influences and this could be a key as to which will be correct.

    This evening's 12z will be all important again.

    Unfortunately, the 06Z was so utterly stonking, I fear that the only way is down?:cold-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Unfortunately, the 06Z was so utterly stonking, I fear that the only way is down?:cold-emoji:

    Agreed.

    As ever, the end result will likely be a half way house between the GFS and ECM with a cold trough likely, but not cold enough for widespread snowfall on lower ground.

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    Posted
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl

    Had to nip out of work and do a message. It's 2pm in late autumn and my car is telling me it's -2 in the shadows and my windscreen has refrozen with a thick frost still lingering. Mighty stuff! 

    This mornings models are the icing on the cake. If they were to verify with a stonking north/north wester blowing in then we could do really well. However, that ECM is still a big bug bear considering it's triumph over the GFS a few weeks back. Although there does appear to be more support within its own ens and other models. A big 12z coming up!

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    Sadly, the 12z runs are not great so far, just awaiting ECM not at 6 for finally nailing the coffin shut!

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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

    Max temperature of -1.2 with me in Donegal today. Grass, roofs etc remained white all day. Nice to see. A much colder day than FC

    Edited by Abyss
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    Posted
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.

    Was always a long shot. I never really bought into this cold spell. To be honest it's getting harder and harder to get widespread snow in Ireland and U.K. With every year that passes. I used to get so annoyed watching the model output but no I literally don't look past 5 days anymore because generally the models get it wrong ! All the background signals were there, pv shot to threads, strat good and we still cannot get decent cold or snow. I'm afraid this will continue for years and as we missed the boat with such positive signals highlights that u nearly need a miracle for it to come off! 

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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

    To be fair Meteorological Winter hasn't even started yet. And the model thread has been saying the same thing since the end of October regarding possible cold then delays etc. I don't get the hysterics in there, same crap everyday lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.
    2 minutes ago, Abyss said:

    To be fair Meteorological Winter hasn't even started yet. And the model thread has been saying the same thing since the end of October regarding possible cold then delays etc. I don't get the hysterics in there, same crap everyday lol

    Couldn't agree more. Yes I love snow and all kinds of weather but to be having near breakdowns is bordering on ridiculous! Anyway it will snow when the time is right. I reckon maybe white xmas. That's my punt ! 

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    Posted
  • Location: north monaghan 120mts[400ft]asl
  • Location: north monaghan 120mts[400ft]asl

    another bitter day today. car was reading -5.5c at 9am. frost hasnt lifted all day in shade and was -3.5c at 7pm. just love this weather and would rather have it than wet snow. have to say the forcasting has been really poor this week regarding temps. crackin wee cold spell,

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

    Amazing the differance in temps today across our wee island. Max temp here was 8.9c, currently 5.7c 

    I really love frosty weather and when it lasts in the shade all day,thought that might be the case here this week but alas the position of the current hp isnt suiting my location in that regard.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry

    This sums up some of the prats posting in the model thread! Excellent stuff. Lol.  It was worth going through the model thread to end the day with this....

    Screenshot_2016-11-25-00-45-13.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

    6.6c here atm,mostly cloudy. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    On Monday, November 21, 2016 at 20:15, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

    Noted and bookmarked

    Un-note and un-bookmark!

    I blame myself.

    Over ten years of model watching and I still get sucked in by the GFS. Never again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
    12 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Un-note and un-bookmark!

    I blame myself.

    Over ten years of model watching and I still get sucked in by the GFS. Never again.

    Bet you told friends and family as well,  totally jinxed it haven ye!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

    And there it is folks the GFS is on the same line as ECM 3 days later what a waste of Money that model is!!! RANT over lets look for next Cold spell it has to come i feel it in me bones.

    Noted Un-Bookmarked the GFS:snowman-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

    Another hard frost last night and amazingly nearly running out of the Holts De - Icer (handier than warm water) and it's not even December. As ever my main wish is dry weather as I drive a lot and I'm enjoying this autumn no end on that front.

    The Netweather Winter forecast is a great read and gives some idea of how difficult it is to predict a season given the many variables and the interaction between them.

    As for the Model Forum, the mods need to get a handle on that and go to one or two of the more experienced posters who lead the ramping and have a word. The notion that a Short Wave "spoils" this or that is infuriating to me. A SW is an integral part of our weather system and isn't out to wreck a winter wonderland. Why can't they let the model run, take a sober look and make sensible comments only, lead by example.

    The majority of the country will be well satisfied with the weather forecast for the next week. Longer than that it has to be noted the Polar Vortex moves through next week over to the Canadian sector and we'll have to see what happens once it gets there.

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