Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

[Weegaz]

I would say metO aren’t far off issuing an amber warning for Tuesday, possibly Wednesday also going by there text on recent update.

Best period of weather coming up in a long long time, exciting week ahead

[Guest]

Storm looks as if to wash away all the snow from Tuesday ugh with hope it may go more south on all runs but besides if it doesn't the cold air is still wrapped behind it. We miss the sliders but we get the storm lol

[Sperrin]

Just been out for a walk, it was much colder than I expected!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Same as Sperrin hardly what I would call mild today!! I am still not buying the evolution of the storm this week, probably wishful thinking but I suspect that it will go more South

[ronan]

Hopefully that low tracks further south over the next few runs. Considering its track has shifted so much over the past few days I would expect it to go south again.

[ronan]

Lol Pom think the last 2 post's were posted at the same time. As you say wishful thinking anyway. 

[Guest]

Possibly very very hazardous roads going into Wednesday/Thursday as the gritters will have to cope with a rapid thaw then refreeze combined with possible high winds and disruption. All to play for! 

[ronan]

3 minutes ago, BREIFMAN11 said:

Possibly very very hazardous roads going into Wednesday/Thursday as the gritters will have to cope with a rapid thaw then refreeze combined with possible high winds and disruption. All to play for! 

It is all to play for but just a shame all the snow from Tuesday could be washed away.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, ronan said:

It is all to play for but just a shame all the snow from Tuesday could be washed away.

Especially so when Tuesdays snow could last all the way to the end of the working week but I still don't see it tracking so north that storm. 12Z will probably confirm the trend I think

Edited January 14, 2018 by Guest

[snowydog]

For my own learning, can someone explain to me the effects of this low - why it needs to be further south? How far south? What affects it etc? 

I know where it needs to be for us to miss it hard or for it not to disrupt the snow event - but I don’t understand why. 

Basically if someone could take 10 mins to explain the details of what’s happening. I’d really appreciate it. I’m an amateur and understand the basics, but beyond that I really want to learn 

[ronan]

In a nutshell if the low was further south then we would stay on the colder northern end of it which in turn would keep Tuesdays snow on the ground and would also keep the wintry showers flowing. There is a lot of mild air wrapped around the low so would be a disaster for us and wash away any snow that falls Tuesday. The track of the low has changed and will no doubt change again. We seen in December the slider lows changed on a daily basis right up until 24 hours out. If the low was positioned just right then we would get hammered very heavy snow, especially the hills. I am far from an expert but hope this helps. 

 

Edited January 14, 2018 by ronan

[Rocheydub]

So Monday night into Tuesday up to Wednesday early hours we will have snow opportunities. The storm track is not nailed yet. I'm happy with that. Confidence 85%.

[Sperrin]

Snowydog, Dennis posted a useful image on the model thread regarding this topic.

[snowydog]

Thanks to both Ronan and Sperrin - I definitely understand it better now. So when I see the charts I’ll know what they mean lol

[ronan]

2 minutes ago, snowydog said:

Thanks to both Ronan and Sperrin - I definitely understand it better now. So when I see the charts I’ll know what they mean lol

No problem Snowydog. If there are any changes in positioning of the low then you will more than likely her it here first. I really hope it favors us!! 

[Guest]

A lot of dry weather on the auto on Tuesday, Something tells me its vice-versa  Auto just can't manage high wind

[bobbarley]

After all the excitement a 1-2 day snowy spell coming up. Mind you better than nothing!

[Neiller22]

2 minutes ago, bobbarley said:

After all the excitement a 1-2 day snowy spell coming up. Mind you better than nothing!

Yep. Looking that way bar a big change in the outputs. All started last night and continuing. Normal winter fair in this country. Snow then all washed away 48hrs  later. 

[ronan]

Eyes down for the 12's!! Important run coming up. Latest BBC Forecast looks real good for Tuesday.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

[Guest]

Watching very closely this 12z..

[Weegaz]

Tuesday still looking excellent

[Guest]

Runner still going the same trajectory.

[Neiller22]

Met office updated text is a downgrade by looks of it. only mentions slight accumulations now for low lying areas. Quite a change in text from this morning 

[Guest]

Nothing could be worse than the last two runs anyway

[Weegaz]

Plenty of time for more upgrades.......he said we a tear in his eye