Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

[ronan]

I really think we are about to see quite a snowy spell of weather. This winter as been great so far in terms of cold but certainly lacking snow but I feel this is all about to change. I could be wrong but.

[ronan]

Beats me why it is so quiet in here. Yes it is a fair bit out but things looking really good for our neck of the woods. Loads of IMBY posts in the model thread but sure that's the only thing to expect when an easterly has failed. As was said here recently and I think it was Neiller, it wasn't only the north west that done well out of the last PM incursion it was all parts, infact some places further East done a lot better that most in the north west. My point is, as the 18z's stand and many runs before it the next PM shot looks a lot colder than anything we have had all winter and what happens after that is all to play for. Things have been pushed back slightly but the 17th/18th is now looking like the dates to watch. Maybe the 19th/20th on the next runs. Lol

[Weegaz]

7 hours ago, ronan said:

Beats me why it is so quiet in here. Yes it is a fair bit out but things looking really good for our neck of the woods. Loads of IMBY posts in the model thread but sure that's the only thing to expect when an easterly has failed. As was said here recently and I think it was Neiller, it wasn't only the north west that done well out of the last PM incursion it was all parts, infact some places further East done a lot better that most in the north west. My point is, as the 18z's stand and many runs before it the next PM shot looks a lot colder than anything we have had all winter and what happens after that is all to play for. Things have been pushed back slightly but the 17th/18th is now looking like the dates to watch. Maybe the 19th/20th on the next runs. Lol

Yes Ronan, next week looking best we have had in a long time, plently of opportunity for snow. As you mention the east have done well this winter out of PM incursions, with next week offering the same.

The GFS charts look fantastic for radar and lamppost watching.

[mountain shadow]

I'm sure this thread will be a lot busier by Thursday if that snowy Pm flow is still there then.

I'm not convinced of any low level snow given the air mass will have traversed a lot of the Atlantic.

[mountain shadow]

6z GFS continues the theme of snowy North Westerlies next week.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Trend is our friend I suppose, as Mountain says if we are still on course come Thursday then there should be a bit more interest

[booferking]

The source of the Westerly feed is very cold and has been very cold all winter, out west the pv lope has been there most Winter if we get the Westerly feed as forecast then there will be plenty of snow for us and bitterly cold let hope this trend continues possibly could be snowiest spell this winter coming up.

[mountain shadow]

12z GFS continues with trend of snow showers into the North West by next Tuesday morning the 16th January.

That is our marker date. Lets see where it is tomorrow. Further away, closer, or disappeared?

UKMet seems on board too.

Edited January 9, 2018 by mountain shadow

[ronan]

Good news then MS. At work so haven't caught up on todays output yet. 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Wtf are they still talking about the failed easterly in the model thread? Thought this was dead and buried, pretty sure there was a wake in there ?

[cheshire snow]

2 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

Wtf are they still talking about the failed easterly in the model thread? Thought this was dead and buried, pretty sure there was a wake in there ?

And only 29 Members online.

Looks good for you guys and NW England Next Week fingers crossed.

C.S

[Neiller22]

13 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

And only 29 Members online.

Looks good for you guys and NW England Next Week fingers crossed.

C.S

Hopefully but nothing set in stone yet I’m afraid. It could easily go the way of the the easterly  and disappear! 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

23 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

And only 29 Members online.

Looks good for you guys and NW England Next Week fingers crossed.

C.S

Hope so C.S.?

[Rocheydub]

I won't be holding my breath... :-)

[ronan]

Anyone know where I can view the EC snow depth charts. I know they will change but nice to look at. Lol

[Aliaalu]

6 minutes ago, ronan said:

Anyone know where I can view the EC snow depth charts. I know they will change but nice to look at. Lol

I too was just thinking the exact same. Rather exciting model watching right now, hoping 2nd half of January will be a bit special.  Even if I can't drive in snow ?

 

Perhaps we could send a wee bottle of Black Bush (we need a emoji for that) to the model thread to help them in their wake?    They are mourning the baby that never was ☹️

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

27 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

I won't be holding my breath... :-)

Probably best lol

[Weegaz]

27 minutes ago, ronan said:

Anyone know where I can view the EC snow depth charts. I know they will change but nice to look at. Lol

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/northern-ireland/snow-depth/20180116-1200z.html

these charts ronan?

[ronan]

That's the ones. Cheers Gaz.

[sundog]

45 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

I won't be holding my breath... :-)

Probably not much joy for us snow starved easterners. Good for up north yet again! Pm shots is the best we seem to be getting these winters, for now.

[Weegaz]

20 minutes ago, ronan said:

That's the ones. Cheers Gaz.

Thursday about best ronan based on these charts, all to play for still and hopefully more colours for further south also

[Weegaz]

Come Monday even Dublin snow shield could be breached. 

Hopefully the met have more confidence come tomorrow evening and into Thursday.

Model thread is like a floating duck at present, they really need something like a full blown easterly to liven it up again

[Rocheydub]

Those snow charts are rarely effective Weegaz, I've lost count the amount of times it's shown images like that, and even up to T-24, and nowt fall from the sky but rain or sleet... I can't even gain a modicum of hope at all. Hopefully you're spot on!

[ronan]

Model thread is real hard work at the  minute!! Tit for tat crap from the usual people! Think I will stay clear of it until the weekend when we will be in a more reliable time frame to see what's gonna happen if anything.

[gman144]

I think the model thread is full of 2 types of people, those from the south of England and those not. Some read charts some use seagulls but at the end of the day there methods have to grab at every opportunity because unless it’s an easterly snow won’t come to southern England. Strange how knocker doesn’t forecast anymore.