Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

[ronan]

I don't think most on here care if we get prolonged cold or not!! I think most just want to see a little snow and i think things are starting to firm up regarding the start of January. Boxing Day snow would be nice to!!

[mountain shadow]

30 minutes ago, ronan said:

I don't think most on here care if we get prolonged cold or not!! I think most just want to see a little snow and i think things are starting to firm up regarding the start of January. Boxing Day snow would be nice to!!

Boxing day and New Years day would do me just fine.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Agree lad's a wee bit around Christmas is fine by me, once January comes in I start thinking about spring and looking forward to the longer evenings

[Rocheydub]

A vicious squall just blew through here, I was fast asleep and it woke me up, it takes something special to wake me from a deep slumber!!!

[mountain shadow]

5 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

A vicious squall just blew through here, I was fast asleep and it woke me up, it takes something special to wake me from a deep slumber!!!

Fast asleep at half past twelve in the afternoon? How many students are on here?!

[Abyss]

13 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Im not buying it. It goes against all the background evidence which should show the opposite, such as strengthening PV, weak MJO and negative angular momentum.

We shall see soon enough.

Fair enough but the background signals didn't amount to anything so far this Winter,over rated IMO.

A post from Fergie 14th Nov

" Worth adding that latest EC Monthly again raises GPH/MSLP to our NW with mean N'ly flow as we switch into Dec. Interestingly it then also develops (2nd week Dec) quite marked -ve GPH anomaly from Scandinavia to the UK, coupled to equally marked -ve MSLP across S UK and directly eastwards into adjacent NW Europe, with attendant appearance of +ve PPN anomalies by that stage. Fascinating times indeed.."

Again on the 28th

"EC Monthly consistent with Glosea and it's last runs. Strong resurgence of +ve MSLP/GPH anomalies north of UK further into Dec, especially Xmas week, with marked -ve temp anomalies developing across adjacent contiguous Europe as N'ly flow veers to mean easterly late Dec. Good to see both suites in such firm agreement, despite inherent issues of confidence at such lead time."

Edited December 23, 2016 by Abyss

[mountain shadow]

21 minutes ago, Abyss said:

Fair enough but the background signals didn't amount to anything so far this Winter,over rated IMO.

A post from Fergie 14th Nov

" Worth adding that latest EC Monthly again raises GPH/MSLP to our NW with mean N'ly flow as we switch into Dec. Interestingly it then also develops (2nd week Dec) quite marked -ve GPH anomaly from Scandinavia to the UK, coupled to equally marked -ve MSLP across S UK and directly eastwards into adjacent NW Europe, with attendant appearance of +ve PPN anomalies by that stage. Fascinating times indeed.."

Again on the 28th

"EC Monthly consistent with Glosea and it's last runs. Strong resurgence of +ve MSLP/GPH anomalies north of UK further into Dec, especially Xmas week, with marked -ve temp anomalies developing across adjacent contiguous Europe as N'ly flow veers to mean easterly late Dec. Good to see both suites in such firm agreement, despite inherent issues of confidence at such lead time."

But those were wrong were they not? The blocking did not happen.

[Abyss]

14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

But those were wrong were they not? The blocking did not happen.

Exactly. That is my point. I provided those to illustrate it. That's why I said they were over rated and they didn't amount to anything. The background signals were wrong so I don't treat them like gospel like most do.

Edited December 23, 2016 by Abyss

[Sawel]

Home in North Tyrone for Christmas and was bored so grabbed a quick picture yesterday (Thursday) in between the brutally heavy rain showers! I have attached a pic of the Sperrins and have numbered the peaks in view.

1. Sawel. You can just about make out this mountain and it was holding a good snow cover. It is the highest peak in the Sperrins at 678 metres above sea level.

2. Dart Mountain. Once again you can just about make this mountain out. Altitude 619 metres.

3. Mullaclogha. A little obscured by low cloud cover - this is the second highest mountain in the Sperrins and the highest peak in Tyrone, Bizarrely though, it is not the highest point in Tyrone! The highest point in Tyrone is near the top of Sawel where a fence marks the county boundary which separates Derry and Tyrone. This fence is some 20 metres below the peak and therefore, is 640 odd metres above sea level making it very slightly higher than the peak of Mullaclogha which is 635 metres above sea level.

4. Mullaghasturrakeen. Some cloud obscuring the peak of this one too. Altitude is 581 metres.

5. Mullaghclogher. Not sure why this is named so similar to it's higher friend a few peaks across. Some low cloud on this one too. Altitude 572 metres

6. Mullaghcarbatagh. The smallest of the six peaks in view at 517 metres.

[booferking]

50 minutes ago, Abyss said:

Exactly. That is my point. I provided those to illustrate it. That's why I said they were over rated and they didn't amount to anything. The background signals were wrong so I don't treat them like gospel like most do.

I have to agree with you on that abyss if they dont give HLB when the MJO favours it then im not to worried when they dont favour HLB, overriding signals are in play me thinks and the MJO is just another useless tool this year.

Anyway if it does turn out to be a toppler which is most likely atleast we actually get are first proper Northerly blast.

Edited December 23, 2016 by booferking

[Neiller22]

And with a puff of smoke the models change dramatically again!  It's why I really don't get to hung up on anything unless it's within 4-5 day range. They really are useless anytime after that. The problem is they should stop after 160 hrs because anything after that is complete  nonsense and should be just binned. The chase continues. Maybe before the turn of the century we might get a snowfall. Because we really are in  one off , if not the worst country in the northern hemisphere for snow! 

Edited December 23, 2016 by Neiller22

[mountain shadow]

I wasnt expecting it to verify as there was nothing supporting it. 

[booferking]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I wasnt expecting it to verify as there was nothing supporting it. 

Still doesnt mean what is shown on 12z will happen its only one run..

[ronan]

Exactly! Can't just say its all over due to one run. No doubt things will chage in a daily basis but we have to remain positive. Sure there is 3 months left of winter so i am gonna remain positive. Take the rough with the smooth and all that. 

[Neiller22]

Rough with the smooth hasn't amounted to much last few years. We always think we are due a break. It never comes bar a blue moon! Iv just resigned myself to the fact we live in country we're snow is becoming a rarity! 

[Sperrin]

@Sawel great picture, where is that taken from? The Donemana to Plumbridge road? My Grandad is from Aughabrack and the great snow in the early 60s forced him to move to Omagh, and there he stayed. The view out my front window is up at Mullaghcarn mountain (542m) which is more or less the start of the Sperrins to the south. 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Showers starting to turn a tad more wintry around Omagh 

[booferking]

ECM keeps the dream alive 168hr just needs tweak slightly if we can build a bit more amplification sink the slug quicker then we would be in business. Essentially the ECM 240 chart is primed again for another shot at Northerly.

[Neiller22]

50 minutes ago, booferking said:

ECM keeps the dream alive 168hr just needs tweak slightly if we can build a bit more amplification sink the slug quicker then we would be in business. Essentially the ECM 240 chart is primed again for another shot at Northerly.

Everything is always at the 240h range. When will we ever ever ever learn. ! 

[mountain shadow]

I have.

[Neiller22]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

I have.

Wish everybody else would. It would save a lot of heartache in here! I don't look past at most roughy 160hrs ! 

Anyway happy xmas everybody. Here's hoping to a snow shower before winter ends ! 

 

[Rocheydub]

9 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Fast asleep at half past twelve in the afternoon? How many students are on here?!

I assure you, it's roughly 26 years since I was a student! I'm a shift worker!!!

[Sawel]

4 hours ago, Sperrin said:

@Sawel great picture, where is that taken from? The Donemana to Plumbridge road? My Grandad is from Aughabrack and the great snow in the early 60s forced him to move to Omagh, and there he stayed. The view out my front window is up at Mullaghcarn mountain (542m) which is more or less the start of the Sperrins to the south.

Hi Sperrin, yes that pic was taken on the Donemana to Plumbridge road. I grew up and lived just before you reach the gaelic football pitch in Donemana coming along the Plumbridge road. My mum lives there. That pic was taken just up the road a bit - only a 2 minute drive. I also lived in Aughabrack and have a lot of cousins and uncles who live there. My mum told me about the snow in the early 1960's when she lived on my late grandfathers farm in Aughabrack with incredibly high drifts and the snow lay for months upon end. 

I'm familiar with Loughmacrory and that area as I played a lot of GAA when I was younger and played at Loughmacrory a lot.

Edited December 23, 2016 by Sawel

[Neiller22]

well what a brilliant December for snow that was. We were due that. I had to take off work, abandon car, stock up on food and the kids loved it! I'm so glad all those background signals paid off. Hats off to all those experts who predicted a cold Dec! Can u please tell us if Jan will be the same. If so, god I can't wait! Nudge nudge wink wink! 

[Sperrin]

@Sawel are you an Owen Roe man or CNG? I'm an omagh blow in, been living in the Lough now for 5 years. Getting involved with the club with my kids who go along to the u-6s.