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A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 hour ago, AlderCat said:

Squally hailstones this morning woke me up. Closed my eyes again and a flash of lightning came through my lids. Quite exciting.

Screenshot_2016-12-21-09-49-13.png

Screenshot_2016-12-21-09-42-39.png

9.49am

Are you a student?

:-0

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Posted
  • Location: 11miles SW of Belfast. 650ft (200m) asl
  • Weather Preferences: Exciting
  • Location: 11miles SW of Belfast. 650ft (200m) asl
Just now, mountain shadow said:

9.49am

Are you a student?

:-0

Haha, yeah I am

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
2 minutes ago, AlderCat said:

Haha, yeah I am

Obviously a light weight student. In my day, I wouldn't get out of my pit until the sun had crossed the yard arm.

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Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry

I really think we are on the verge of something cold and snowy by the second week in January! Big high centered over us followed by a potent Northerly then maybe an easterly setting in. Some great charts this evening. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry

@boofer

Thats a cracker you just posted in the Model Thread. If this trend continues then we could be in for a treat come January and most likely earlier that previously thought! If we can get the initial northerly and snow on the ground then am all up for an Easterly after that. Lol

Edit....CROSS MODEL AGREEMENT ON CURRENT OUTPUT??

 

GFSOPEU18_228_1.png.441e2879bfed265681060b690b50ced3.png

Edited by ronan
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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
13 minutes ago, ronan said:

@boofer

Thats a cracker you just posted in the Model Thread. If this trend continues then we could be in for a treat come January and most likely earlier that previously thought! If we can get the initial northerly and snow on the ground then am all up for an Easterly after that. Lol

Edit....CROSS MODEL AGREEMENT ON CURRENT OUTPUT??

 

GFSOPEU18_228_1.png.441e2879bfed265681060b690b50ced3.png

lol she really turned into a cracker that run we just need to keep the ball rolling in the right direction and then boom.:santa-emoji:

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Im not buying it. It goes against all the background evidence which should show the opposite, such as strengthening PV, weak MJO and negative angular momentum.

We shall see soon enough.

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
18 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Im not buying it. It goes against all the background evidence which should show the opposite, such as strengthening PV, weak MJO and negative angular momentum.

We shall see soon enough.

Neither am I for what it's worth, although weak MJO does not support it, certainly wouldn't hinder it! It could be just the weather doing the opposite of what we think it will... just like the start of this month!

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

It is probably too good to be true given the background set up but maybe we could possibly get  a toppler out of it which would  be better then nothing. Still though it will be interesting to see what the models say tomorrow.

p.s if you see in the morning that ido is the last poster on the mod thread that wont be good news :fool:

Edited by sundog
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Posted
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
6 hours ago, sundog said:

It is probably too good to be true given the background set up but maybe we could possibly get  a toppler out of it which would  be better then nothing. Still though it will be interesting to see what the models say tomorrow.

p.s if you see in the morning that ido is the last poster on the mod thread that wont be good news :fool:

Now I do have a raging hangover and maybe reading things that aren't there but IDO seemed to post a positive comment about prospective cold signals, nahhhhhh I must be drunk still! 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Wet and windy already, awful morning for travelling to work.

The ECM is not on board with the GFS full blown Greenland height scenarios. I think a brief amplification is likely but nothing prolonged.

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Posted
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.
59 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Wet and windy already, awful morning for travelling to work.

The ECM is not on board with the GFS full blown Greenland height scenarios. I think a brief amplification is likely but nothing prolonged.

I get the vibe this winter is beginnng to grate on you MS! For me it will just be a constant chase but hope I'm wrong of course.  Today is brutal at the mo! 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

We absolutely do want a Greenland High as we are more likely to get a sustained Northerly that way which is snow nirvana for us in the North. Think back to December 2010 where we have three solid days of heavy and prolonged snow shower. I think I got over a two feet of snow.

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