North West England Regional Weather Discussion

[I Cumbria Marra I]

10 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

I think its going to be a washout for most of the NW. 

 

Wintry showers been the order of the day but lying snow looks transient inland, towards the coast no chance, this is backed up by the EURO4. 

 

 

disagree, Euro4 only goes up to 12pm Thursday, it will get better for snow as the day goes, Met office also disagree with you

[Cheese Rice]

16 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Any links...

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=t850&HH=0&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Below is accumulating snow, best chances are under the streamer where ever is under it inland would likely see settling snow as it would bring the freezing level down. But as you can see away from the streamer is a bit of a miss.

 

 

Edited January 10, 2017 by Cheese Rice

[Cheese Rice]

5 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

disagree, Euro4 only goes up to 12pm Thursday, it will get better for snow as the day goes, Met office also disagree with you

Uppers are at there coldest at 6am at -8, the 850's increase to -6/-7 by 6pm. They get colder again by midnight but by then the flow has been cut off.

 

 

[Spah1]

OMG! 

[Joe Bloggs]

I think Euro 4 is underplaying the precipitation... that's unless the precipitation down south somehow inhibits the convection in the Irish Sea but I don't really see how that'd be the case.

[Weather-history]

22 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Memories of snowfalls on past NWly flows not often mentioned: 3rd February 2003, covering by evening.

1st February 2008: snow showers in the evening, a covering

 

Next morning, snow still falling 

 

[WillinGlossop]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/mountain-forecasts/peak-district#?tab=mountainWeather

Peak District looking cold and wintry over the next five days.... yippee....

[Joe Bloggs]

3 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/mountain-forecasts/peak-district#?tab=mountainWeather

Peak District looking cold and wintry over the next five days.... yippee....

That makes the MetO warning area seem a bit odd! 

[Miamay]

Oooh Diane mentioned snow. Whats the weather coming up from the south going to do ?

[WillinGlossop]

4 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

That makes the MetO warning area seem a bit odd! 

Ive kept quiet up until now watching models and forums... but i think the met office will alter their warnings again tomorrow to include more inland/pennine areas... think showers will be more widespread than currently forecast by bbc/tv forecasts.... usual case with wnw/nw winds showers tend to band and move well inland.... and with 60-70mph wind gusts theyll be rattling through....

Edited January 10, 2017 by WillinGlossop

[Weather-history]

1 minute ago, WillinGlossop said:

Ive kept quiet up until now watching models and forums... but i think the met office will alter their warnings again tomorrow to include more inland/pennine areas... think showers will be more widespread than currently forecast by bbc/tv forecasts....

If the wind direction has a degree of a westerly component, showers will move inland. It's that simple. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

22 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I think Euro 4 is underplaying the precipitation... that's unless the precipitation down south somehow inhibits the convection in the Irish Sea but I don't really see how that'd be the case.

Yep, that wave feature needs to do one...it has a knock on effect for us as it delays the cold flow and veers winds more w'ly ahead of it for a time. Without the coldest uppers earlier, you delay triggering convection.

[Joe Bloggs]

8 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

If the wind direction has a degree of a westerly component, showers will move inland. It's that simple. 

Indeed, but surely the Met Office realise this?

Bizarre. 

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Indeed, but surely the Met Office realise this?

Bizarre. 

Unkess meto dont think we will get the showers and the warning is a backup incase the shortwave doesnt materise

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Indeed, but surely the Met Office realise this?

Bizarre. 

Won't the wave/front take the energy needed for shower creation thou.... hence the subdued predicted shower activity. 

 

PS some great post today Joe 

[pip22]

1 minute ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

Unkess meto dont think we will get the showers and the warning is a backup incase the shortwave doesnt materise

I think the Meto do not have a clue where the snow gonna hit. All models seems to be all over the place!!

[Weather-history]

2 minutes ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

Unkess meto dont think we will get the showers and the warning is a backup incase the shortwave doesnt materise

Here's tomorrow.

Wednesday:

Turning colder through Wednesday with strong winds and local gales. There'll be scattered showers, mainly in coastal areas, these turning increasingly to snow later, especially over the hills. Feeling cold. Maximum Temperature 7C

What the showers are going to hit the coast and suddenly die out within a few miles of the coast in a strong wind flow?

I have seen this type of wording in forecasts before and it still doesn't make logical sense. 

 

[Frost HoIIow]

Just now, Weather-history said:

Here's tomorrow.

Wednesday:

Turning colder through Wednesday with strong winds and local gales. There'll be scattered showers, mainly in coastal areas, these turning increasingly to snow later, especially over the hills. Feeling cold. Maximum Temperature 7C

What the showers are going to hit the coast and suddenly die out within a few miles of the coast in a strong wind flow?

I have seen this type of wording in forecasts before and it still doesn't make logical sense. 

 

It's like they are written by someone with hardly any experience. Been a few times I have scratched my head at the wording of the Met Office NW forecast.

[Joe Bloggs]

5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Won't the wave/front take the energy needed for shower creation thou.... hence the subdued predicted shower activity. 

 

PS some great post today Joe 

Thanks mate. I'll write a new update first thing tomorrow morning.

In answer to your question I have no idea...although I see no reason to be despondent tonight, certainly not in your area.  

[cheshire snow]

Liverpool snow run up to 22 for the 13th and 19 for the 14th

C.S

[iand61]

No surprise in Diane bigging up tomorrow's gales but avoiding all talk of Thursday's snow showers as if her life depended on it.

she did mention the possibility of the system down south effecting us but I can't see it reaching much further than the north Midlands at best so it looks like we will have to put up with constant lines of heavy blowing snow showers crossing the region instead and leave the wet heavy sleet for others.

[Geordiesnow]

21 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Won't the wave/front take the energy needed for shower creation thou.... hence the subdued predicted shower activity. 

 

PS some great post today Joe 

Its just more of a case that you could get a lot of high level based cloud which would limit convection. Sometimes you can't make it up and you just wish for a nice CLEAN flow for once, the GFS is fine but the ECM looks less good in my eyes. Winds do veer more NNW'ly but I'm guessing that is not the best direction for certain parts as it will tend to mean most of the showers stay out in sea and only flirt with coastal areas.

That said, there is windows of opportunity and I'll still be surprised if some parts of the region don't see some way of lying snow. I'm not expecting lying snow here but some beefy hail showers and good convection wont go amiss hence for that stupid wave of a weather front to bugger off asap.

[Paul90]

Avoid watching mildie Oxberry at times like this. Watch Kerrie Gosney on Granada.

[cheshire snow]

1 minute ago, Paul90 said:

Avoid watching mildie Oxberry at times like this. Watch Kerrie Gosney on Granada.

is she fit

C.S

[Day 10]

10 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

is she fit

C.S

Lol. Yes