North West England Regional Weather Discussion

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Showers forming

[karyo]

The ones in southern Cumbria look hefty.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Not too sure it will be snow. Temp is 3.8 but dp is -2

[karyo]

Shower just to the north of me.

[SP1986]

Rain showers this morning .. temperature 5.7C

[iand61]

Looks like nowt but rain overnight here.

we don't seem to have lost any of the covering of snow we had left on Friday evening but we certainly haven't added to it.

in the end yet another wintry spell which failed to live up to the hype and expectations but plenty of time left for further attempts and no doubt further let downs.

[Day 10]

50 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Rain showers this morning .. temperature 5.7C

Exciting stuff, we are so lucky here on the Wirral! Can't wait for the next installment of the Wirral Snowdome!

[Pint Vulger]

Thawing nicely in staly vegas,it was one of those suprising 'blimey thats a warmish breeze' mornings when i went out at 8 ,it was 5 but has dropped to 3 under the clear sky.Should be a nice day .

Would I be right in saying that no one got the forecast (amateur or pro) got it right?

[Carl46Wrexham]

One forgettable "cold interlude" that was. No frost, a pathetic patchy sugar dusting of slushy snow/hail and rain. Fail. Move on...nothing to see here.

 

[iand61]

Heavy snow shower this morning gave a covering but once the sun got to work it soon thawed again.

we've still got the remains of yesterday mornings heavy snow on the grass and some side roads are very icy but temperatures are slowly rising so I'd imagine the snow line will be rising further still during the afternoon.

then we have tonight's weather warning for a brief spell of snow which looking at the map covers much of Cumbria and about 1 acre of East Lancashire.

nice to see it but somehow I don't think I'll be stopping up to lamp post watch.

[SP1986]

5 hours ago, Day 10 said:

Exciting stuff, we are so lucky here on the Wirral! Can't wait for the next installment of the Wirral Snowdome!

I told you.. the Tropomatic 500 is extremely efficient. 

[Backtrack]

Just coming back from the Pennines. All melting up there now. No more than a MM or two, partial patchy covering 

[karyo]

1 hour ago, iand61 said:

Heavy snow shower this morning gave a covering but once the sun got to work it soon thawed again.

we've still got the remains of yesterday mornings heavy snow on the grass and some side roads are very icy but temperatures are slowly rising so I'd imagine the snow line will be rising further still during the afternoon.

then we have tonight's weather warning for a brief spell of snow which looking at the map covers much of Cumbria and about 1 acre of East Lancashire.

nice to see it but somehow I don't think I'll be stopping up to lamp post watch.

It looks like Eastern England will have a period of snow in the early hours and it may stay as snow in East Anglia where the mild air is not expected to make it.

It will be a miserable day across our region tomorrow, possibly Monday too with rain and drizzle.

[dodge]

A whole week or more we talked about this cold spell, which was shown to be quite potent right up to the realisation that the low pressure nudging up from the south would subdue the colder air from the north west.  It just seems scant reward sometimes for the amount of discussion , analysis, commentary on models 4 times a day, just to get a slushy covering when finally does arrive.

So when's the next merry-go-round going to be?

[karyo]

9 minutes ago, dodgeredee said:

A whole week or more we talked about this cold spell, which was shown to be quite potent right up to the realisation that the low pressure nudging up from the south would subdue the colder air from the north west.  It just seems scant reward sometimes for the amount of discussion , analysis, commentary on models 4 times a day, just to get a slushy covering when finally does arrive.

So when's the next merry-go-round going to be?

Yes, but imagine if we knew all along that it would be underwhelming... at least we had some short lived excitement.

They are discussing about a potential sudden stratospheric warming in the MO thread but those are not guaranteed wintry weather for our little island.

[Day 10]

6 minutes ago, dodgeredee said:

A whole week or more we talked about this cold spell, which was shown to be quite potent right up to the realisation that the low pressure nudging up from the south would subdue the colder air from the north west.  It just seems scant reward sometimes for the amount of discussion , analysis, commentary on models 4 times a day, just to get a slushy covering when finally does arrive.

So when's the next merry-go-round going to be?

Yes it was modelled quite late then ruined the north westerly which was looking pretty potent until a few days out, extremely frustrating. The models are still ok, the atalantic looks pretty quiet medium term as heights are trying to build north west. From there anyones guess good and bad. As it stands there is still firm interest. People also mentioning a possible ssw, that would really help our chances of a "proper freeze". 

[damianslaw]

18 hours ago, Lake District Blizzards said:

Cumbria is a very large county...

It easily has the snowiest lowland parts of England (along with snowiest part of the uplands) looking at the met office climate maps, (possibly on par with Northumberland/Durham)

Up here the SE feed thing is useless, creates a rainshadow effect with no evaporative cooling or anything to suppress the temperatures. ends with light sleety nothing

recent decent snowfalls here are  17th Jan 2016 - 9cm, 29th Jan 2015 - 6cm, 21st Jan 2013 - 11cm, all from totally different directions / setups i think. 

Granted it is a large county with huge variations especially between the SW and NE. Yes central and eastern parts of Cumbria often do see a fair amount of snow, under different set ups, easterlies and north easterlies can deliver the good especially when there are trough features, late Nov 2010 produced alot of snow in the far east of the county. Northerlies though tend to produce the wishbone effect, with showers restricted to coastal parts, unless there are frontal/trough features. 

When I mention the SE feed, I'm associating it with frontal activity from the west, often what happens when a warm front moves in - especially a slow moving one over cold ground, they often bring in a SE airflow ahead of them, so you don't get any milder atlantic air mixing in, - tonight will be a good case in point, thought the front looks like having a bit of oomph to it, so the SE feed will quickly turn to a southerly/southwesterly, still it will be enough to pull uppers down and produce a bit of snow before turning to rain.

In southern central parts i.e. around Windermere-Grasmere area, the heaviest snowfalls of yesteryear have always come courtesy of frontal attacks, sometimes from the west, sometimes from the south bumping into cold air, or low pressure/cyclonic conditions indeed the odd polar low, often dropping down from the north or northwest, odd time the NE.

Back to today - oh dear awoke to light rain and temp of 4 degrees, where did that come from? A poor morning, but the sun came through by lunchtime. I was up on Helvellyn, and the clouds broke on the summit to reveal snowy mountains, lots of ice about down to about 300 metres, but little snow cover other than on north and east/south faces. 

Winter has a lot of time left, about 2 months, and I always think our best chances of sustained cold snowy weather are from now on through to mid March, atlantic traditionally begins to quieten down now, and continental/polar airstreams have an easier time of holding it at bay, especially as we move further through February.

On /high ground winter hangs on well into April in an average year. Indeed we had snow on 30 April last year.. A northerly in April can pack a real snowy punch.

[Chris.R]

Just got caught in the rain that wasn't supposed to be there! It's just taking the p*s now. 

Edited January 14, 2017 by Chris.R

[Backtrack]

Getting on my last nerve this weather. No good PPN when it's conductive to snow

when it isn't, under a full blown streamer. Hate this country 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Raining

[Day 10]

5 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Raining

Yessssss fantastic! 

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Raining

We've got sleet, trying to turn to snow, but its too marginal and we will lose the cold uppers, very quickly. Pity the fells will lose their snow as well tomorrow. Roll on the next cold spell.. next one must do better!

[dodge]

No surprise that we are in the 'mild' club of Europe...a lovely wet day in store for tomorrow.

[robbo88]

1 hour ago, dodgeredee said:

No surprise that we are in the 'mild' club of Europe...a lovely wet day in store for tomorrow.

And you can garruantee that come summer all Europe will be warmer than average and us colder 

[AderynCoch]

9 hours ago, Chris.R said:

Just got caught in the rain that wasn't supposed to be there! It's just taking the p*s now. 

Not just me then. I got soaked.

It's been a most bemusing couple of days. And tomorrow is supposed to be a washout. Does anyone think that particular forecast is going to go wrong?