North West England Regional Weather Discussion

[Chris.R]

So Liverpool TAF going for rain/snow showers from 06:00.  Also rain/snow showers and snow showers tomorrow afternoon with the elusive SHSN. 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Chris.R

[Darren Bown]

Metoffice seems to keep any wintryness until the dark hours tomorrow.

[WillinGlossop]

18z euro 4 still looks good for 10-15cm in peak district over next 36hrs

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=36&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

[Geordiesnow]

Was a little bit of convection today with quite a good number of showers just passing to my North but all in all, I thought shower activity would be a little more obvious than it has been however conditions do look different tomorrow with much lower thicknesses and instability should be lower also as a result. I imagine dew temps will be lower as a result so we could start seeing some reports coming in then.

Any features could well pop up so again its nowcasting.

Does look like Friday should be a quieter day on the shower front before things potentially get slightly interesting again as we go into Friday night into Saturday morning, at least according to the GFS. Suspect I'll be too far North and it be those in the South of the region that will benefit but we shall see, I just want too see some dramatic convective weather and be dissapointed if this did not occur.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Upgrade IMBY 18z 12z

[northwestsnow]

Just back from a mates house topend of oldham (moorside) and its mainly rain at over 300m.

[Chris.R]

50 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

So Liverpool TAF going for rain/snow showers from 06:00.  Also rain/snow showers and snow showers tomorrow afternoon with the elusive SHSN. 

So a new Taf is out and it  brings forward the start of the pure snow showers (SHSN) probability to start now from 06:00. So from 06:00-24:00 rain/snow showers and snow showers. upgrade. 

[WillinGlossop]

Heavyish hail/ice pellets gust of wind then moderate snow shower..... 0c dew -2c.....

the weather station has wrong temp as it says nearest station is leek thorncliffe 25km away.... 

ps second attachement, model going for 15-20cm in lucky spot which im guessing is kinder scout? 

Edited January 12, 2017 by WillinGlossop

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, WillinGlossop said:

Heavyish hail/ice pellets gust of wind then moderate snow shower..... 0c dew -2c.....

the weather station has wrong temp as it says nearest station is leek thorncliffe 25km away.... 

ps second attachement, model going for 15-20cm in lucky spot which im guessing is kinder scout? 

Which model is that and for what time scale?

[northwestsnow]

Just been through the raintoday temperature 12 hourly forecast and it looks a bit green for my liking, esp west of manchester.

Not too sure accurate it is..

Fwiw the very east of the region stays coldest although lack of precip maybe an issue.

Will be intetesting at least.

Edited January 12, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Just been through the raintoday temperature 12 hourly forecast and it looks a bit green for my liking, esp west of manchester.

Not too sure accurate it is..

Most of the higher resolution modelling I've seen shows accumulations almost exclusively over high ground. So yeah, it is a slight worry as things stand. I'm guessing the Irish Sea is quite a bit warmer than it should be and as such is shown to modify the airmass a fair way inland...

In heavier showers it shouldn't be too much of an issue but I wouldn't be surprised if there is more reports of rain and sleet tomorrow than some are expecting.

Edited January 12, 2017 by CreweCold

[northwestsnow]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Most of the higher resolution modelling I've seen shows accumulations almost exclusively over high ground. So yeah, it is a slight worry as things stand. I'm guessing the Irish Sea is quite a bit warmer than it should be and as such is shown to modify the airmass a fair way inland...

Aye not even sure if 200m will suffice.Should do ok tomorrow night i hope.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Aye not even sure if 200m will suffice.Should do ok tomorrow night i hope.

200m- fine

Any less than this and it could be marginal at times I would suggest. Hence no real accumulations showing for low ground NW England.

[The Northern Ramper]

Precipitation picking up now, not cold enough though as yet.

[James M]

First proper showers heading in now, just sleety rain atm

[Mucka]

Bigger blob of ppn heading into NW England. Probably rain or hail for low ground.

Edited January 12, 2017 by Mucka

[loubie_4]

Not feeling hopeful of seeing snow here. 

 

[Mucka]

7 minutes ago, loubie_4 said:

Not feeling hopeful of seeing snow here. 

 

Could be tougher the further West you are. As usual the upper air isn't as cold as originally modeled with lots of little warm sectors.

There is more ppn heading into you now. Let me know if its snow as it gets to me after you.

Edited January 12, 2017 by Mucka

[James M]

Hoping for some good evaporative cooling but it is still quite windy though. 3.1°C falling slowly.

[loubie_4]

10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Could be tougher the further West you are. As usual the upper air isn't as cold as originally modeled with lots of little warm sectors.

There is more ppn heading into you now. Let me know if its snow as it gets to me after you.

Will do Mucka 

[Mucka]

7 minutes ago, James M said:

Hoping for some good evaporative cooling but it is still quite windy though. 3.1°C falling slowly.

Is that ground temp?

Do you know what current DP's are?

Says +2C for Manchester airport so no chance for now if that's right.

[James M]

Just now, Mucka said:

Is that ground temp?

Do you know what current DP's are?

Says +2C for Manchester airport so no chance for now if that's right.

Air temperature. Don't know what the dew point is here, but clearly too high.

[Cheshire Freeze]

LOL at the forecast from the Metoffice for tonight-

Further sleet and snow showers tonight, with possibly a spell of more widespread rain, sleet and snow moving southwards after midnight, with gales in places. Icy conditions for many. Minimum Temperature -4C.

Only the UK could offer up rain with -7/-8 uppers, thicknesses like these 

etc etc

 

[Mucka]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

LOL at the forecast from the Metoffice for tonight-

Further sleet and snow showers tonight, with possibly a spell of more widespread rain, sleet and snow moving southwards after midnight, with gales in places. Icy conditions for many. Minimum Temperature -4C.

Only the UK could offer up rain with -7/-8 uppers, thicknesses like these 

etc etc

 

Yeah it is crazy hard to get snow here to low levels. That forecast has been updated this morning so it sort of means tomorrow night or Thursday night/Friday early hours 

I thought the best part was for UK "mild on Monday with drizzle"

Edited January 12, 2017 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Mucka said:

Yeah it is crazy hard to get snow here to low levels. That forecast has been updated this morning so it sort of means tomorrow night

LOL yeah whichever way you want to look at it!

However I do have a sinking feeling that low ground (below 150m) will see very little in terms of accumulating snow tonight. Going to be a sopping wet mess isn't it!?