North West England Regional Weather Discussion

[chicken soup]

3 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

And an update from the 12z GFS 

6am tomorrow:- 

 

 

 

12pm:-

 

 

3pm:-

 

<--- notice the colder air digs in at this point, with plenty of showers still. 

6pm:-

 

 - precipitation eases back slightly, but now the cold air digs in properly. Overnight snow eases back towards the coast.

Friday 6am!

 - organised precipitation moves down from the north - quite a strong chance of snow away from the coast, clearing to the Midlands Friday morning.

===

So all in all the 12z backs up the 06z output. Too mild for snow tomorrow morning (away from the hills), then the cold air digs in 3pm turning showers to snow. Showers dying back to the coast tomorrow evening, before (in a new twist) more organised snow (with rain near the coast) moves in later in the night from the north.

sounds promising....but i dont trust the GFS precip charts even at this range.

[Snowy L]

49 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Considering what the potential was at one point I would say no.... I expect more downgrades but that would depend on what happens down south now.

I still expect to see snow and get a  dusting thou.

Sorry to hear you're only getting 12 hours of non stop snow. 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

little bit of sleet hitting the window

[Miamay]

22 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I've spent the last hour remaking my DIY wetbulb thermometer  which is now operational and looking good. Think I'll do hourly reports tonight for the benefit of those in this area.

 

 

Sounds good Chris !! 

[Frost HoIIow]

12 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Sorry to hear you're only getting 12 hours of non stop snow. 

I think he lives up in Moorside part of Oldham, they are used to 10 feet of snow haha

[Day 10]

24 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I've spent the last hour remaking my DIY wetbulb thermometer  which is now operational and looking good. Think I'll do hourly reports tonight for the benefit of those in this area.

 

 

Excellent Chris! I take it you will be keeping these readings, that way if we do get snow around coastal areas you can refer back to them for our next knife edge situation.

[Chris.R]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Excellent Chris! I take it you will be keeping these readings, that way if we do get snow around coastal areas you can refer back to them for our next knife edge situation.

I will indeed. They get automatically logged every 10 minutes.

[frosty ground]

6 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I think he lives up in Moorside part of Oldham, they are used to 10 feet of snow haha

Ha Ha,,,,,, I am not moaning about the output just highlighting that that forecast was the worst one so far.

[toggerob]

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

3 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Borderline for me if this is true

[Mucka]

Ironic that the SE may see snow and the NW do poorly off a Northwesterly!

That possible snow event for the SE is killing our chances of decent shower activity.

As if that isn't bad enough we then get a band working its way down the East with another possible snow event for the SE while we stay mostly dry.

Looks like Manchester will see snow to the North, South, East and West (Ireland) at some stage.

And after this little cold snap we can all be excited about dry and 8C while the SE get excited about a continental flow and ice days.

I'm not bitter though! 

 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

3 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

is this the GFS?

[toggerob]

The current forecast on the UK snow-forecast website, nothing set-in-stone, but it's looking promising.

[SP1986]

2 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

is this the GFS?

Could not make that up. Wirral and it's subtropical rainfest. I'm moving to Greece lol

[Joe Bloggs]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Ironic that the SE may see snow and the NW do poorly off a Northwesterly!

That possible snow event for the SE is killing our chances of decent shower activity.

As if that isn't bad enough we then get a band working its way down the East with another possible snow event for the SE while we stay mostly dry.

Looks like Manchester will see snow to the North, South, East and West (Ireland) at some stage.

And after this little cold snap we can all be excited about dry and 8C while the SE get excited about a continental flow and ice days.

I'm not bitter though! 

 

 A tad on the pessimistic side of realistic there matey.

We'll see.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

11 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Could not make that up. Wirral and it's subtropical rainfest. I'm moving to Greece lol

haha its all of the coast tbf

[Mucka]

11 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

 A tad on the pessimistic side of realistic there matey.

We'll see.

Yeah, not full of cheery optimism was it?

Once the cold air is in place something can crop for sure but we have gone from a perfect set up for heavy prolonged snow showers merging to scattered sleet and snow showers here in Manchester - at least going on current model guidance.

Best chances will probably be tomorrow morning.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Mucka

[Joe Bloggs]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yeah, not full of cheery optimism was it?

Once the cold air is in place something can crop for sure but we have gone from a perfect set up for heavy prolonged snow showers merging to scattered sleet and snow showers here in Manchester - at least going on current model guidance.

Best chances will probably be tomorrow morning.

Oh it's definitely not as good as it was for sure.

I don't agree about the morning - I don't think it'll be cold enough, I think we'll have a spell of rain in the morning... best chances 3pm and towards the early evening IMO

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Radar is showing sleet near preston now and as south as east manchester

[Weather-history]

Lovely Moon in the eastern sky at the moment

 

[dodge]

Still hoping for a few beefy wintry showers to fall at least a few times during the next 24/36 hrs, but yes it's all gone a little flat with the pesky low to the south spoiling the party somewhat.  Maybe it won't get as far north as projected and the north westerly airstream will be less moderated allowing for better wintry potential.  We'll have to see.  The winds today were something else.  Very gusty at times.

[Bolton67]

Anybody getting the feeling this is going to be one big damp squib?.

the MOD thread has been re-named , the south east of England  thread.. 

If the ECM shows a full on Easterly, then the MOD thread will be re-named again to Thames streamer thread . 

 

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, Bolton67 said:

Anybody getting the feeling this is going to be one big damp squib?.

the MOD thread has been re-named , the south east of England  thread.. 

If the ECM shows a full on Easterly, then the MOD thread will be re-named again to Thames streamer thread . 

 

This is what I hate the most about this! They are claiming it is an upgreat anything that increases the chances of snow in the south regardless of what happens for the rest of the country.

[toggerob]

GFS now setting the same trend as the snow-forecast model, bringing cooler-air southwards into the Midlands earlier than initially forecast.

[Day 10]

Love the Winter. We all start out as one big friendly happy gang all in the mod thread hunting for the first sign of snow, then we switch to our regional gang despising other threads as they now have better snow prospects. When the snow does hit the UK we then have in fighting as it's snowing down the road and not in "my back garden". Love it!!!

It all begins tomorrow haha..

Edited January 11, 2017 by Day 10