North West England Regional Weather Discussion

[robbo88]

Also don't know if anyone else watched it but I watched the 9:55 weather on BBC news. The forecaster did mention that there was a chance of winds coming from the east next week, but that there was a lot of uncertainty.

[frosty ground]

Snow showers from 9pm tomorrow..... that's an improvement 

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

NMM is in range on next update so will see

[cheshire snow]

Someone posted a tweet in the MOD Thread from Ian F Saying there is high possibility of Heavy snow for the E midlands on Thursday and it is been monitored closely.

so that's NI /Scotland Heavy snow showers  E mids in the game...I wonder why our region is not getting any mention from the Meto.

Not rocket science is it

C.S

[cheshire snow]

Ignore my last post read it totally wrong he was talking about down in the west country...Tired LOL

C.S

[Spah1]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

Ignore my last post read it totally wrong he was talking about down in the west country...Tired LOL

C.S

Ha Ha I thought I was bad checking every forecast I could. Think it's time for sleep. I feel like a kid on Christmas Eve. 

[Miamay]

Starting to feel disheartened now. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

The game has completely changed for NW England...once looking a prime location. I was concerned about winds being too westerly but that wave feature and that little bump of LP travelling down from the N along eastern areas actually conspire to bring the winds round too N'ly too soon.

[Spah1]

20 minutes ago, Miamay said:

Starting to feel disheartened now. 

I keep telling you, you liv on the coast! You need 2010 synoptics for lying snow. But good look to you hope it happens. I'll be watching the radar Thursday night. 

[Frost HoIIow]

The less said about euro 4 the better. Looks good for Snake Pass I guess. Still time though.

Edited January 10, 2017 by Frost HoIIow

[chicken soup]

20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The game has completely changed for NW England...once looking a prime location. I was concerned about winds being too westerly but that wave feature and that little bump of LP travelling down from the N along eastern areas actually conspire to bring the winds round too N'ly too soon.

Thats if the gfs18Z has the low correct....hopefully it will be a good bit further south.

[AderynCoch]

10 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

I keep telling you, you liv on the coast! You need 2010 synoptics for lying snow. But good look to you hope it happens. I'll be watching the radar Thursday night. 

That's simply not true, we've had lying snow from this sort of set up plenty of times in the past. Even last winter had some lying snow here, and that was an absolute stinker.

Still, I'm not discounting the possibility of Sod's Law rearing its ugly head yet again. We shall see.

 

Edited January 10, 2017 by AderynCoch

[Cheshire Freeze]

22 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Thats if the gfs18Z has the low correct....hopefully it will be a good bit further south.

For 6pm Thursday, this says it all

By the time that LP clears winds will be too N'ly for the majority of the region.

Bes we can hope for now IMO is enough wrap around of the winds during Thurs night to drag some showers to areas S&W of about Manchester.

Edited January 10, 2017 by CreweCold

[chicken soup]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

For 6pm Thursday, this says it all

By the time that LP clears winds will be too N'ly for the majority of the region.

Will be a proper kick in the knackers if this is yet another letdown.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, chicken soup said:

Will be a proper kick in the knackers if this is yet another letdown.

Saw this situation coming a mile off earlier on in the day.

[wrightc23]

Oh well back to FI.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

yup, stuck in no mans land, typical.

[Chris.R]

3 hours ago, SP1986 said:

The Met Offices slant on thing is quite bizarre. I wouldn't expect this near the start of the event would cause this much confusion for trained Meteorologists. I can understand that 2-3 days in advance there may be slight confusion, but it's supposedly starting tomorrow.. and somewhere along the line, either there has been mis-communication, or an error in one of the model outputs that has thrown it. 

I'm not a trained Meteorologist, but to me, it's quite clear for the time period until Friday.

Tomorrow we will see a westerly orientated northwesterly entering the region, bringing forth relatively cold returning maritime Arctic air. At first the flow will be too saturated with warm dewpoint temperatures, so any light showers that start to feed into coastal regions will be of rain, for large amounts of the night time period. Unfortunately the showers at this time probably won't have the umph to continue inland, so they'll die away, leaving a clear, breezy night for many. 

On Thursday it will probably start pretty featureless, in fact some people may question the validity of any snow forecast. From late morning to early lunchtime, we will see showers developing in the Irish sea as a result of warm seas and convection, these light at first will start filtering in over north Merseyside and South Lancashire, getting heavier as the time progesses. Towards the coast these will probably be of a hail/graupel mix, but as they move eastwards towards parts of Gtr Manchester and Northern Cheshire, they will increasingly turn to snow, leaving coverings, although perhaps westernmost areas seeing only short temporary accumulations of snow. 

Towards the evening, as the wind direction back to more of northwesterly, we may see more general snow fall as a result of showers banding together from showers passing through the north channel (aka Cheshire Gap). This will bring more widespread snow, and possibly higher chance of accumulation on the coast.. perhaps a few cm.. however it will still be temporary covering on these parts.. but further inland, a more substantial, sustained covering of snow possible.

 With all my experience living here I would say you are going to call that pretty much spot on. I reckon they'll be a bit more shower activity  than you suggest imo with a high risk of lightning on Thursday night.  I don't personally remember a North-Westerly with such low DPs before so it will be interesting to see what difference that makes. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 With all my experience living here I would say you are going to call that pretty much spot on. I reckon they'll be a bit more shower activity  than you suggest imo with a high risk of lightning on Thursday night.  I don't personally remember a North-Westerly with such low DPs before so it will be interesting to see what difference that makes. 

Anyone down the Merseyside coast, Wirral, down into central/west Cheshire should be fine Thursday night as things stand. Wouldn't want to be any further N&E from my location though given the wind flow veering more N'ly with each hour that passes.

By 6AM Friday, it's pretty much a direct N'ly

It wouldn't be such an issue if that southern feature could run through quicker than the EURO4 suggests. GFS has it clearing a tad quicker.

Edited January 11, 2017 by CreweCold

[Chris.R]

 Why would high cloud kill convection? Surely a CB can punch through a layer of stratus. 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Chris.R

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Why would high cloud kill convection? Surely a CB can punch through a layer of stratus. 

Doesn't work like that...If we take a look at the most optimistic solution from the GFS, you can see how that wave changes the flow around it

Completely alters the dynamics required for deep convection and lake effect snow over our patch. May get light showers hitting coastal areas from that, but even that is optimistic if EURO4 is more on the money.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

cant see many of my toys being in the pram come tomorrow night.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

cant see many of my toys being in the pram come tomorrow night.

I'll end up flipping the pram over if I don't see snow.

[Geordiesnow]

Still think there is too much over analysis over PPN charts although it does look like Thursday will not be as convective as it could be(for whatever reason) despite the fact you got cold air over warm seas and fairly unstable air. If anything the air becomes more unstable during Thursday night with lowering thicknesses and lets see if anything gets embedded in the flow which could deliver in this region. The BBC seems to suggest something more organised Western Scotland which may head this way?

Crewecold - Those charts you posted looks like a NNW'ly rather than a stright Northerly too me, I'm not too certain how that will work out PPN wise but I would imagine that could be the perfect direction for a Cheshire streamer? If not that, showers heading SSE'wards towards Merseyside/Cheshire etc? Either way, its down to radar watching for any members in Cumbria, tomorrow night looks interesting going by those BBC graphics.

[Chris.R]

1 hour ago, AderynCoch said:

That's simply not true, we've had lying snow from this sort of set up plenty of times in the past. Even last winter had some lying snow here, and that was an absolute stinker.

Still, I'm not discounting the possibility of Sod's Law rearing its ugly head yet again. We shall see.

 

 Your first part, totally agree.  The last part, jealous, got nothing last winter not  even falling.