The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion

[snow freak]

I wouldn't get our hopes up too much this weekend to be honest.  I fear the set up will be too marginal and we are more likely to end up with icy cold rain rather than snow.  Why are there so many marginal events in the British winters these days.  It seems every time we have some sort of a chance for snow, it turns out too marginal for most of us and we just end up with rain rather than snow.  Even a few cms of snow would be nice.  That's hardly asking a lot.

[Staffordshire]

I have to make my decision today... stay at home in Gentleshaw this weekend (until Sunday evening) or spend the Weekend in Manchester City centre. Where are my chances best do you think?

[Gord]

It's been such a boring  year of weather here in the Black Country. Hardly any snow, just a few farty little thunderstorms during the summer. There's been plenty of sunshine this year so at least me and my lurcher have managed some good walks. 

So now we have potentially something interesting to look out for. Problem is that during the last few winters it's been really difficult to get the ingredients right over the Black Country for anything noteworthy. I think it was 2 winters ago that several times it started to snow heavily, we were looking good for something decent at last, only for it to turn to rain fairly quickly. A couple of them overnight too. Such disappointment going to bed with lying snow and waking up to a normal grey, wet day. So even when an event has started there is no guarantee that it can last. Such a fragile climate we live in for getting the conditions we want, but I guess that's why we get drawn back here because despite the disappointment, I still find it interesting. 

In fact, scratch everything I've just typed. I've changed my mind.  Can we have a thunderstorm instead? We're way behind the southeast on those this year! 

[Benny123]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Im sure you will be fine.   The wording is also very interesting.  It now says  Areas could expect 10-20cm  including NW Midlands.   thats been added on during its update   which means more heavy showers are expected.

*Perhaps* the NW Midlands

[Ian Ballinger]

What do you class as the NW Midlands?

[BleakMidwinter]

22 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:

What do you class as the NW Midlands?

I wish there was a map somewhere with all these vague terms defined, but I guess that's the nature of vague terms, isn't it?

Fingers crossed for Telford getting snow - I think Ironbridge lies a bit lower? But if we do get it barrelling in from the NWerly, it may well not care much about your elevation asl!

 

[weirpig]

1 hour ago, snow freak said:

I wouldn't get our hopes up too much this weekend to be honest.  I fear the set up will be too marginal and we are more likely to end up with icy cold rain rather than snow.  Why are there so many marginal events in the British winters these days.  It seems every time we have some sort of a chance for snow, it turns out too marginal for most of us and we just end up with rain rather than snow.  Even a few cms of snow would be nice.  That's hardly asking a lot.

The euro 4 looks good for some of the Midlands. For Friday  Elevation as always will play apart  can see most getting a covering more so above 150m  Sunday? Well anything could happen 

Edited December 6, 2017 by weirpig

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6Z shifts it SW, south of region currently look best placed, very interesting one this though, any further SW, and north of region to miss out

[MattStoke]

1 hour ago, snow freak said:

I wouldn't get our hopes up too much this weekend to be honest.  I fear the set up will be too marginal and we are more likely to end up with icy cold rain rather than snow.  Why are there so many marginal events in the British winters these days.  It seems every time we have some sort of a chance for snow, it turns out too marginal for most of us and we just end up with rain rather than snow.  Even a few cms of snow would be nice.  That's hardly asking a lot.

-8 to -10 uppers won't be marginal.

[MattStoke]

Snow risk for Friday/Sarurday looks to be increasing here.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, Staffordshire said:

I have to make my decision today... stay at home in Gentleshaw this weekend (until Sunday evening) or spend the Weekend in Manchester City centre. Where are my chances best do you think?

Gentleshaw my choice on current models, unless your elevation in Manchester is higher

[Staffordshire]

10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Gentleshaw my choice on current models, unless your elevation in Manchester is higher

Only 150ft in Manchester. Meto forecast on phone app seem quite keen to pile showers through into our neck of the woods Friday morning/afternoon. I guess as usual in these streamer set ups, i will be getting whatever you get, just a few minutes later.

[weirpig]

WellGuys  on the met office twitter feed it shows half the country from East Scotland down through the spine of the country to the south midlands  then across to Bristol  all in the 2-5 cm zone  with 10-15 on higher ground    interesting  looks like quite an event   ps if anyone else sees it could they post it  struggling to upload   Edit   Found It.

Edited December 6, 2017 by weirpig

[markw2680]

9 minutes ago, weirpig said:

WellGuys  on the met office twitter feed it shows half the country from East Scotland down through the spine of the country to the south midlands  then across to Bristol  all in the 2-5 cm zone  with 10-15 on higher ground    interesting  looks like quite an event   ps if anyone else sees it could they post it  struggling to upload 

Is that for Thursday-Saturday or the unsure Sunday thing?

[weirpig]

Just now, markw2680 said:

Is that for Thursday-Saturday or the unsure Sunday thing?

Friday- Saturday  found picture above

[Diamond Joe]

12 minutes ago, weirpig said:

WellGuys  on the met office twitter feed it shows half the country from East Scotland down through the spine of the country to the south midlands  then across to Bristol  all in the 2-5 cm zone  with 10-15 on higher ground    interesting  looks like quite an event   ps if anyone else sees it could they post it  struggling to upload 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

36 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

Only 150ft in Manchester. Meto forecast on phone app seem quite keen to pile showers through into our neck of the woods Friday morning/afternoon. I guess as usual in these streamer set ups, i will be getting whatever you get, just a few minutes later.

Gentleshaw 220m though, advantage to you

[Dancerwithwings]

A MASSIVE improvement for Snow in the Midlands for Friday right from the start in the form of heavy showers.

Click on the Video forecast  https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Showing showers all day

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

A MASSIVE improvement for Snow in the Midlands for Friday right from the start in the form of heavy showers.

Click on the Video forecast  https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Showing showers all day

12Z GFS good too, slider low looks decent for us, also into FI now, but 2nd slider not bad either

[Dancerwithwings]

12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

12Z GFS good too, slider low looks decent for us, also into FI now, but 2nd slider not bad either

Just can't bring myself to look at Sunday just yet, Sliders are notorious to forecast, Ive seen them let us down even 12hrs before landing from a good dumping to not even a flake.....or worst RAIN

But I'm fair confident that Friday will turn out to be quite a good day......Daytime snow  

 

Edited December 6, 2017 by Dancerwithwings

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Just can't bring myself to look at Sunday just yet, Sliders are notorious to forecast, Ive seen them let us down even 12hrs before landing from a good dumping to not even a flake.....or worst RAIN

But I'm fair confident that Friday will turn out to be quite a good day......Daytime snow  

 

To be honest Friday looks great. We always do well from the gap streamers here  what a start to winter. The slider well we have a ticket 

[Dancerwithwings]

7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

To be honest Friday looks great. We always do well from the gap streamers here  what a start to winter. The slider well we have a ticket 

Troughs are us on the MO FAX charts for Friday, you never know more persistent snow methinks

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1512648000

Edited December 6, 2017 by Dancerwithwings

[weirpig]

20 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Troughs are us on the MO FAX charts for Friday, you never know more persistent snow methinks

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1512648000

And the Euro 4 backs that up  edit top ones 6z 

Edited December 6, 2017 by weirpig

[Dancerwithwings]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

And the Euro 4 backs that up 

 

[Snowsie]

I'm trying not too get too excited but....

woo hoo! Here's hoping for a dumping!