The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion

[I remember Atlantic 252]

cold reaches us between 9pm and midnight, showers should turn to snow around 10pm

9pm rain, midnight snow, (low levels anyway)

[MattStoke]

GFS appears to have a Cheshire Gap streamer right across the Midlands Friday morning. Then diving southward through the far west of the region and Wales during the afternoon as winds veer from NW to more NNW.

[weirpig]

Going by XC weather  which i often find as a good barometer,  in this part of the region i will be getting approx 4 inches   so this could be a nice little event.  even if the slider dosent work out for us

http://www.xcweather.co.uk

[Weather-history]

 

10 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not the 90's anymore, 

I noticed that when the clock struck midnight on 1st January 2000.....

[MattStoke]

Not to be taken too seriously at this stage as it probably won't be nailed for a few days but, the GFS and UKMO this morning both have the sider low on Sunday bringing a snow event to all of the Midlands.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

 

I noticed that when the clock struck midnight on 1st January 2000.....

and the 'new' Atlantic 252!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Not to be taken too seriously at this stage as it probably won't be nailed for a few days but, the GFS and UKMO this morning both have the sider low on Sunday bringing a snow event to all of the Midlands.

Yes, looks better, need it still further south, to bring lower levels into play, bbc going for snow on leading edge for here

[RobR]

Away from the short-term, what are the expectations for the North Midlands going into next week? Reading a lot of stuff about rain etc on Wednesday but temps still seem low.

[cyclonic happiness]

The BBC forecast not showing anything for the Midlands still?? What are they playing at, the Met office has us under a warning and all the Midlands forecast says is, "there could be wintry showers" which to a lay person means cold rain or sleet.

Absolutely no mention of snow, no warnings that you may have to change your travel plans, are they so scared of getting caught out that they have given up on forecasting in weather forecasts??

[Sweatyman]

1 minute ago, cyclonic happiness said:

The BBC forecast not showing anything for the Midlands still?? What are they playing at, the Met office has us under a warning and all the Midlands forecast says is, "there could be wintry showers" which to a lay person means cold rain or sleet.

Absolutely no mention of snow, no warnings that you may have to change your travel plans, are they so scared of getting caught out that they have given up on forecasting in weather forecasts??

They really are bad and need knocking there heads together!

[MattStoke]

Models are showing snow to low levels,but we know how inaccurate they can be.

Met Office written forecast for the Midlands says scattered snow showers Friday and Saturday.

Edited December 6, 2017 by MattStoke

[Terminal Moraine]

11 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

The BBC forecast not showing anything for the Midlands still?? What are they playing at, the Met office has us under a warning and all the Midlands forecast says is, "there could be wintry showers" which to a lay person means cold rain or sleet.

Absolutely no mention of snow, no warnings that you may have to change your travel plans, are they so scared of getting caught out that they have given up on forecasting in weather forecasts??

I think the lack of 'interest' from the BBC/Met Office is  a reflection of the large degree of uncertainty as to what will happen on Sunday. They're in the position of being damned either way. If they forecast heavy falls of snow 5 days out and the low responsible moves a few tens of miles the wrong way  and we end up with rain, or nothing, they're slated. And if they hang on until they're relatively certain what will happen they're slated for saying nothing.

With regard to the current weather warning; although the yellow warning area covers a large part of the West Midlands and part of the East Midlands the text of the warning indicates that any real disruption is likely to be over North Wales, north west England, Northern Ireland and Scotland. The extensive area of yellow in other areas is, in my opinion, to cover the possibility of a few showers being driven further inland and giving a cm or so  of snow of lying snow. It seems to take only a couple of cm of snow to cause disruption these days so they have their justification. 

[RobR]

BBC charts are rubbish anyway for snow, so hardly a deal breaker. Just look at last weeks showers on the east coast as an example. The best forecast is the window in a nowcasting situation. I'm more interested beyond what happens Sunday too as there seems conflicting information in the models.

[Benny123]

Nice little occlusion following behind the main front on Thursday night, probably an area of more organised snow, then followed by a streamer event! Looking good for the Midlands! 

[klippieboo]

[BarometerCat]

Light snow on the Beeb app 1am to 5am Friday. If only!

Need to see how quickly the fronts move Thursday into Friday and how quickly (and deep) the colder uppers spread south. Still not really resolved on the models maybe.

 

 

Edited December 6, 2017 by Barometer Cat
typos etc...

[weirpig]

Slow  in here.   Gfs Takes the Slider on Sunday right over our patch  Quite a shift south.    Of course this will change so one to keep an eye on.  Fun and games start Friday   Somepeople on this thread could be happy campers come the weekend.

[Diamond Joe]

The updated Met Office Weather warning for Friday into Saturday is simply teasing me in Solihull

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=wm&regionType=area

[BarometerCat]

Most definitely getting interesting, closer and more reliable timeframe now but still little shifts making a big difference.  Looking very good IMO

Saturday streamer maybe?? 

[weirpig]

7 minutes ago, Diamond Joe said:

The updated Met Office Weather warning for Friday into Saturday is simply teasing me in Solihull

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=wm&regionType=area

Im sure you will be fine.   The wording is also very interesting.  It now says  Areas could expect 10-20cm  including NW Midlands.   thats been added on during its update   which means more heavy showers are expected.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Down to nowcasting in my opinion, both for fri/sat and also for the possible big event on sun/mon, for this area.(Bham)

The fri/sat event depends upon whether the wind is WNW, NW or NNW.  It is still not settled, and will change when the event starts..

As to the weekend event there is still a huge divergence on the track of the slider..

We might very well be in the sweet spot if the low decides to move across southern England as it gets sucked into the mother low over Europe. There is a possibility that it may well then deepen quickly and bring us a minor(?)  blizzard with an east wind..

Nothing set in Stone(?) yet!, but very interesting for us in the middle of the Midlands.

MIA 

[Diamond Joe]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Im sure you will be fine.   The wording is also very interesting.  It now says  Areas could expect 10-20cm  including NW Midlands.   thats been added on during its update   which means more heavy showers are expected.

Im pretty confident at this stage, certainly to see falling snow anytime between Friday morning and Monday, as to amounts could literally be anything at this stage but im hopeful

[weirpig]

Just now, Midlands Ice Age said:

Down to nowcasting in my opinion, both for fri/sat and also for the possible big event on sun/mon, for this area.(Bham)

The fri/sat event depends upon whether the wind is WNW, NW or NNW.  It is still not settled, and will change when the event starts..

As to the weekend event there is still a huge divergence on the track of the slider..

We might very well be in the sweet spot if the low decides to move across southern England as it gets sucked into the mother low over Europe. There is a possibility that it may well then deepen quickly and bring us a minor(?)  blizzard with an east wind..

Nothing set in Stone(?) yet!, but very interesting for us in the middle of the Midlands.

MIA 

Yes indeed MIA   very interesting as you say   A afr cry from last year.  ps   Nice to see you again.

[Dancerwithwings]

This was on for Tues now its gone altogether so regarding Sunday's forecast it's only Wed along way to go yet folk's....EDIT...sorry wrong chart but it was much the same... you get the idea... caution at this stage... it will change

Edited December 6, 2017 by Dancerwithwings

[WillinGlossop]

Euro4 now within 48hrs has this....