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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion

A.J

By A.J
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

looks better, but noticed last few runs starting to edge west, any further west and our snow chances will be off, the mild wedge to the NE closer

hgt500-1000.png

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Sparkiee storm Seasoned

Sparkiee storm

Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
Posted

I have a sneaky feeling, that us in parts of the Midlands could get more snow showers than they are currently forecasting, as the winds are pretty strong so get blown in easier also without them loosing much intensity.

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted
1 hour ago, Sparkiee storm said:

I have a sneaky feeling, that us in parts of the Midlands could get more snow showers than they are currently forecasting, as the winds are pretty strong so get blown in easier also without them loosing much intensity.

yep and me Sparkiee   I have a feeling some of these showers will penetrate far inland   i also thing the Chesire gap streamer is also a possibility  As always devil in the detail.

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Aaki Khan Apprentice

Aaki Khan

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Sparkiee storm said:

I have a sneaky feeling, that us in parts of the Midlands could get more snow showers than they are currently forecasting, as the winds are pretty strong so get blown in easier also without them loosing much intensity.

Yes Your Right As Having The Cheshire Gap Most Of The Time Over The Years I Have Noticed 'Nowcast' As Best Forecast On A Weaker NW'ly Than What Is Currently Being Modelled. So I Would Think Confidence Should Be Higher For Cheshire Gappers With A More Biting NW'ly. Last Minute Weather Warnings Not Out Of Question For Us.

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Ian Ballinger Enthusiast

Ian Ballinger

Posted
  • Location: Porthmadog
  • Location: Porthmadog
Posted
1 minute ago, Aaki Khan said:

Yes Your Right As Having The Cheshire Gap Most Of The Time Over The Years I Have Noticed 'Nowcast' As Best Forecast On A Weaker NW'ly Than What Is Currently Being Modelled. So I Would Think Confidence Should Be Higher For Cheshire Gappers With A More Biting NW'ly. Last Minute Weather Warnings Not Out Of Question For Us.

Never realised how hard it was to read when every word has a capitol :D

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Kieran Explorer

Kieran

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham 166m ASL
  • Location: Birmingham 166m ASL
Posted

I wonder if the Midlands could see a suprise on Thursday. Below is the BBC forecast map for Thursday, as you can see the channel low is going northwards and you'd presume as is meets the colder air around the Midlands the precipitation would turn wintry. By the next frame the precipitation is all gone so it's hard to tell but definitely something to keep a close eye on...

IMG_1085.PNG

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dudleyweather1 Apprentice

dudleyweather1

Posted
  • Location: Dudley & Halesowen, West Midlands, England
  • Location: Dudley & Halesowen, West Midlands, England
Posted

Interesting developments in the latest charts for Friday...

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2017011012/66-779UK.GIF

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

Yes its looking promising :ninja:

a.png

 

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Sparkiee storm Seasoned

Sparkiee storm

Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, weirpig said:

yep and me Sparkiee   I have a feeling some of these showers will penetrate far inland   i also thing the Chesire gap streamer is also a possibility  As always devil in the detail.

 

2 hours ago, Aaki Khan said:

Yes Your Right As Having The Cheshire Gap Most Of The Time Over The Years I Have Noticed 'Nowcast' As Best Forecast On A Weaker NW'ly Than What Is Currently Being Modelled. So I Would Think Confidence Should Be Higher For Cheshire Gappers With A More Biting NW'ly. Last Minute Weather Warnings Not Out Of Question For Us.

Some models have been showing this so yeah it certainly is possible, hopefully we get lucky, as these usually bring a good cover to us black country folks and other part of the MIdlands too :D, but lets not worry too much as the latest run is giving us more snow chances :yahoo:

Edited by Sparkiee storm
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cyclonic happiness Accomplished

cyclonic happiness

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, Ian Ballinger said:

Why does everyone seem so depressed in the model thread?

because there's still no consistency in the main models.  The GFS giveth, and then 6 hours later, taketh away.  It's wearing people down to the point where they don't believe or get excited about anything that's being shown.

And to be honest, I feel the same way. The GFS seems to get worse every year.

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Gord Rising Star

Gord

Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
Posted (edited)

I can't get inspired by this one I'm afraid.

I don't know if it's the fatigue of the past 4 years.

I don't know if it's because every potential snow event on NWerly winds during 2014/15 failed here.

I don't know if it's because the forecasts seem very underwhelming right now.

Sorry guys, just not feeling it. Hopefully something will happen to kick my enthusiasm back into gear again.

I'm sure someone on this forum will have something marvellous to share by the end of the week. Will look forward to that!

 

 

Edited by Gord
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Gord said:

I can't get inspired by this one I'm afraid.

I don't know if it's the fatigue of the past 4 years.

I don't know if it's because every potential snow event on NWerly winds during 2014/15 failed.

I don't know if it's because the forecasts seem very underwhelming right now.

Sorry guys, just not feeling it right now. Hopefully something will happen to kick my enthusiasm back into gear again.

I'm sure someone on this froum will have something marvellous to share by the end of the week. Will look forward to that!

 

 

Anyone would think that was my post! kind of agree, but I do think if anything snow 'window' has increased, not ruling out a few flurries between Thurs eve and early Sat, what is definite though mild air sweeping in later on Sat, leading to a wet Sunday

certainly not expecting settling away from Peak district (30cms there sigh) Stockport also 30cms+ sigh

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Ian Ballinger Enthusiast

Ian Ballinger

Posted
  • Location: Porthmadog
  • Location: Porthmadog
Posted
3 minutes ago, Gord said:

I can't get inspired by this one I'm afraid.

I don't know if it's the fatigue of the past 4 years.

I don't know if it's because every potential snow event on NWerly winds during 2014/15 failed here.

I don't know if it's because the forecasts seem very underwhelming right now.

Sorry guys, just not feeling it. Hopefully something will happen to kick my enthusiasm back into gear again.

I'm sure someone on this forum will have something marvellous to share by the end of the week. Will look forward to that!

 

 

I'm the same, very Meh about hopes so far

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Walsall Wood Snow Seasoned

Walsall Wood Snow

Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
Posted

I also think there's a fair chance there'll be flurries. As for anything substantial though I'm not holding my breath. As is usually the case though it'll come down to nowcasting and even if snowmagedon was been forecast for here I wouldn't take it as a given even less than 24 hours out. I could be pleasantly surprised though, but who knows. I'm just preparing myself for the worst though, for if it does go t**s up it might soften the blow.

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Gustywind Enthusiast

Gustywind

Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
Posted

Expect the worse, hope for the best, not expecting much myself either, more interested in the potential Scandi high down the line, that would be much more interesting from a Midlands perspective.

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted
2 hours ago, Ian Ballinger said:

Why does everyone seem so depressed in the model thread?

Not no more.....:cold-emoji:12z ECM:cold:

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

Not no more.....:cold-emoji:12z ECM:cold:

yeah, shame GFS not showing it, 06Z was, but need both models agreeing

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted
1 minute ago, WillinGlossop said:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/mountain-forecasts/peak-district#?tab=mountainWeather

Peak District looking cold and wintry over the next five days.... yippee....

I think they are holding back a little there :D

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The Wolf Enthusiast

The Wolf

Posted
  • Location: South Staffs
  • Location: South Staffs
Posted

I am feeling a little underwhelmed about this upcoming cold spell. Forecasts I have see don't seem to suggest anything significant, snow wise, for most parts of the Midlands. Knowing our luck if we do get PPN there will be a warm sector to ruin it anyway. Sorry to sound downbeat but there have been far too many let downs in recent years. A slight dusting is the best I think most of us will get that will probably melt in an hour!

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