Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[gottolovethisweather]

15 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Stubborn ECM 

Not mild, not cold, but a bit meh..

 

 

Frost and fog and a chance to dry things out before the first winter month. I'll bank that chart with open arms! I actually believe this will be the form horse as I mentioned in a post a few days back. It'll certainly bring the CET mean down. 

Edited November 17, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Exactly, I'll take the gfs thanks.

Me too, especially the last part.

 

[nick sussex]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

The ECM 240 isn't too bad but it looks like its full of hazard spoilers, next few ECM runs important but more so EPS suites.

Lol, hazard spoilers we should add that to our glossary of terms because any cold weather in the UK is full of those HS's. Agreed the ECM is more complicated. You'll see though that both the GFS and ECM take the PV back to Russia at T240hrs, lots of cold air now to the ne if things fall into place.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Lol, hazard spoilers we should add that to our glossary of terms because any cold weather in the UK is full of those HS's. Agreed the ECM is more complicated. You'll see though that both the GFS and ECM take the PV back to Russia at T240hrs, lots of cold air now to the ne if things fall into place.

Yes, I probably shouldn't mention this to you but it could be short term pain for long term gain!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

UKMO has the HP further north so for me ECM is on its own,  I think whatever the ECM is onto it is part of the movement that will see an attack from the N and NE.....AND ECM is wrong, I  anticipate it will move the HP to more like UKMO and GFS at t144 range

 

BFTP

Edited November 17, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

As I said yesterday - it's only November. 

The ECM shows the potential for persistent freezing fog, a discombobulated PV and the chance of significant snow, this side of Christmas...What more do you want - an F5 tornado descending on the Houses of Parliament?

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, I probably shouldn't mention this to you but it could be short term pain for long term gain!

LMAO!  I know this sounds bitter but good to see the USA having zip cold after this weekend, the last few winters we've been subjected to loads of news items about the snow and cold there whilst we in Europe sit  under hideous mild mush.

And with little cold to fuel the jet off the eastern seaboard and no limpet PV over ne Canada we have a window of opportunity.

Edited November 17, 2016 by nick sussex

[Frosty.]

Just for fun I wanted to see how much support there was from the GEFS 12z for the stonking 12z op for a proper start to winter..I found plenty

[Summer Sun]

40 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Stubborn ECM 

Not mild, not cold, but a bit meh..

 

 

Pretty sure those in Cumbria will be happy with that after what they had to go through last Autumn / Winter

I suspect it could be quite chilly at the surface daytime temps would struggle if fog was stubborn to lift

Edited November 17, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

UKMO has the HP further north so for me ECM is on its own,  I think whatever the ECM is onto it is part of the movement that will see an attack from the N and NE.....AND ECM is wrong, I  anticipate it will move the HP to more like UKMO and GFS at t144 range

 

BFTP

I do hope you are right, Fred...If not, you and I - and quite a few others - will be digging ourselves out of 'one hell of an omelette'!

[blizzard81]

The extended ecm ensembles will be interesting viewing later. Hopefully we should start to see a few very cold runs popping up.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

The extended ecm ensembles will be interesting viewing later. Hopefully we should start to see a few very cold runs popping up.

Yes, + the EC46, we really need the usual suspects around later, a big night of model output still to come.

[Zakos]

GFS at 384. Its been hinting at this pattern change for a number of days now.

Comparing the start of December from the last 5 years to todays forecast, looks pretty clear to me that, if it verifies, it will be the best start to winter since 2010 in terms of the state of the PV. This of course being the coldest December in over 100 years.

The only year that even comes close is 2012

 2012 still had much deeper cold over Canada.

GFS mean anomaly has been hinting at this pattern change for a number of days now... all we need is for these charts to make it within the 10 day timeframe.

 

 

 

Edited November 17, 2016 by Zakos

[knocker]

Not much different with the ecm until towards the end of the run and it's not without interest. the trough to the east continues to be fed with energy from Canada over the top of the HP and it plunges south into the Middle east.

This sets in motion, or continues same, a clockwise rotation of the HP/LP split over the UK ending with this position

.

 

[Geordiesnow]

Surprised no one has mentioned the ECM has re-intensified Sunday's low and its now even deeper than the GFS, thats a massive change to this morning's run and just shows there is still much uncertainty regarding Sunday's forecast.

Overall, its fairly similar to this morning's run, at least the models have trended eastwards slightly so we do get a slight northerly flow which will bring cool conditions. The question seems to be is just how close will the high ridge into the UK, could be the difference between having dull easterly winds and fog and frost.

I would personally rather have the ECM evolution as it would bring more in the way of Autminal weather at least and it should be settled and a contrast to the start of the week at least.

[knocker]

42 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Oh yes, I agree. I've been watching things regularly myself. I've referred it in my posts from previously, pretty much because you've also shown charts with the WAA around and about in the mid-range. I just didn't want the less well initiated in here thinking we were going to be in the middle of a heatwave before the cold had even descended. Out of interest, Knocker, where do you think the start of FI sits right now, (would you suggest somewhere around D5) ?

Not far off I wouldn't think. They have certainly been struggling after that as noted by the differences with the upper air pattern

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Not much different with the ecm until towards the end of the run and it's not without interest. the trough to the east continues to be fed with energy from Canada over the top of the HP and it plunges south into the Middle east.

This sets in motion, or continues same, a clockwise rotation of the HP/LP split over the UK ending with this position

.

 

I see some people tentatively defending the ECM T240 but your last chart shows clearly that it is a crime against winter. Low pressure off the coast of Iberia - same pattern that throws plumes to us over the summer. And this is all with the back drop off a damaged PV and a possible SSW!! the lesson being, even wintry macro signals don't guarantee wintry micro conditions for the UK.

[Frank Trough]

Leaving the hunt for signs of cold in the latest GBBO and Quasi Mojo alone for a second, it's still looking like quite a wild night in the south on saturday with plenty of rain and strong winds. If you have hatches, i would suggest battening them down....

This has been modelled pretty well for a good few days now (providing it verifies like this of course):

 

[knocker]

1 minute ago, Certain kind of fool said:

Leaving the hunt for signs of cold in the latest GBBO and Quasi Mojo alone for a second, it's still looking like quite a wild night in the south on saturday with plenty of rain and strong winds. If you have hatches, i would suggest battening them down....

This has been modelled pretty well for a good few days now (providing it verifies like this of course):

 

I don't know about Saturday but it's been quite a wild day here today

[nick sussex]

The early difference between the ECM and GFS/UKMO solutions is here. The ECM makes much more of this shortwave and takes it east, the GFS/UKMO have a weaker feature this becomes easily absorbed into the high.

So ECM at T96 and then T120hrs:

The GFS at T96 and T120hrs:

This isn't one of those situations where the handling of the shortwave is critical to the colder evolution because both outputs end up with high pressure near the UK and the upstream patterns are both amplified at this stage. However if we could it would be good to see the ECM come into agreement with the GFS and UKMO .

 

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I do hope you are right, Fred...If not, you and I - and quite a few others - will be digging ourselves out of 'one hell of an omelette'!

Oh I am Pete.....;-)........................in my own little world anyway

 

BFTP

Edited November 17, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[A.J]

53 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Lol, hazard spoilers we should add that to our glossary of terms because any cold weather in the UK is full of those HS's. Agreed the ECM is more complicated. You'll see though that both the GFS and ECM take the PV back to Russia at T240hrs, lots of cold air now to the ne if things fall into place.

Oh god no!....This thread is already full of hackneyed cliches without yet another one added to be repeated ad nauseum..

certainly today's outputs show some potentially very wet weather from sunday onwards for southern England and parts of the Midlands, maybe even some transient snow for some, and I do wonder if flooding might be an issue for some districts

Edited November 17, 2016 by ajpoolshark

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Oh god no!....This thread is already full of hackneyed cliches without yet another one added to be repeated ad nauseum..

certainly today's outputs show some potentially very wet weather from sunday onwards for southern England and parts of the Midlands, maybe even some transient snow for some, and I do wonder if flooding might be an issue for some districts

I disagree Feb Blizzards phrase was apt for the UK because in a nutshell getting cold and snow into the UK is full of hazard spoilers. And as I've been on this forum for 12 years and a cliche obsessive and Head of the Cliche Dept I've instructed my cliche operatives to install this into the essential winter glossary! lol  I thought moderators were supposed to help the thread run smoothly and not become the Cliche Police!

[bluearmy]

The 12z ecm op moves the snow risk to th esecond feature T102/T120 and to hills in the se of England 

the first system has the risk wales up through nw England and out through the n Pennines T60/T96 (again mainly hills)

 

Edited November 17, 2016 by bluearmy

[snowwman]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

UKMO has the HP further north so for me ECM is on its own,  I think whatever the ECM is onto it is part of the movement that will see an attack from the N and NE.....AND ECM is wrong, I  anticipate it will move the HP to more like UKMO and GFS at t144 range

 

BFTP

I too have doubts about the ECM solution. The latest day 10 chart seems to me particulary unfeasible. A retrogresssion of heights to Greenland is what I'd expect.