Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Glacier Point]

MJO heading back to the Western Hemisphere ?

Intraseasonal low level forcing also in the Maritime Continent (100E) also making a comeback ?

Which would favour mid Atlantic ridge scenario.

 

[Fozfoster]

9 minutes ago, knocker said:

Temps still holding up quite well but cooling slightly as the run progresses

 

is this a knocker RAMP ? ;-)

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, ITSY said:

Ens not particularly impressive on the cold front, least not in line with some expectations. ECM should be interesting 

Yes I thought we'd see some beauty's , the Op could indeed be off the mark although it is ran at a higher res so ENS playing catch up maybe. We shall see. 

[snowice]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Given the strong signal to push high pressure ne over the UK the ECM should agree with this as its earlier output has the same set up but just with the high a bit further south. Its ensembles though suggest that the op had things too far south so I think we should expect good agreement at T144hrs.

The GFS evolution is one we've seen many times before with the high edging west and troughing heading into Scandi and its not one of those Da Vinci Code type evolutions which needs a leap of faith.

The problem this far out is trying to get the right angle of attack of cold air into the UK, maintaining a decent block not too far west but that's well into the future.

So lets hope the ECM will retrogress the high and not try and make a drama over it.

Well 24hrs ago you did say that the russian high needs to do one.

Looks like gfs heard you

If this were a game it would have to be the chase! Fingers crossed some great charts to come.

 

[nick sussex]

Whats happened to the ECM its stuck at T48hrs? I think it might have got stage fright after the big build up.

[terrier]

Some really nice looking charts from the gfs tonight deep into fi. And let's not get too hung up by 1 run of the gfs. Yes the charts tonight are nice to see. But don't take them as gospel because as we all know that will only lead to disappointments. Anyway onto the ecm and see what that throws at us. 

[phil nw.]

Sperrin -nice snow video but off topic so i have moved it in the appropriate thread rather than delete.

Just model discussion in here,thanks.

Edited November 17, 2016 by phil nw.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Found these on Facebook pretty interesting..  Certainly a different year for sure not just weather but big contributing factors 

 

 

Interesting also mention of more warm air being pumped up there also 

[Ali1977]

ECM seems very flat to 120 , that's crazy difference at 120 to GFS. 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS mean continues to indicate height rises to the nw,  mid atlantic ridging and expanding scandi trough later this month and into early winter, it's the opposite of our typical mild zonality from the 12z and many runs before it. I really see potential for a significant cold outbreak perhaps similar to the way the stunning op run ended to banish the memories of the mild hell that was last December! At the very least it looks below average to rather cold and cyclonic turn of the month with wintry ppn and night frosts with a risk of freezing fog.

Edited November 17, 2016 by Frosty.

[gottolovethisweather]

53 minutes ago, knocker said:

Temps still holding up quite well but cooling slightly as the run progresses

 

 

 

 

Note the dates, guys n gals. A five-day cool spell (with a fair amount of wintry precipitation around) all beforehand and most probably the start of another colder interlude afterwards, as hinted at by the 2nd chart above. I must admit the first chart covering the period 22nd to the 27th has the warmth (for coldies like me) a bit too close by for my liking. Nonetheless, can't paint the outlook in any other colour for now than with a blue hue. Interesting times and potentially frustrating times ahead to boot. My current of 0.9c below average Temperatures will only continue on a downward curve if you ask me.

The ECM op currently keeps things as they were forecast to be (17th through to 21st) for a good week or so now, which is a cool to cold spell for the first five days at least, as if to confirm my assessment above. The latter stages to the run will be intriguing but as others have stated, past D5 the surface details, yet alone the bigger synoptical picture is one that's still baffling, even the pros.  

Edited November 17, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM seems very flat to 120 , that's crazy difference at 120 to GFS.

Its very similar over the USA in terms of amplification, the issue is that shortwave energy which it shoots east. Its similar to this mornings output, as long as the upstream amplification holds it should still deliver high pressure near the UK.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

And another.. Would explain why the PV is all over the gaff?

[karlos1983]

Stubborn ECM 

Not mild, not cold, but a bit meh..

Edited November 17, 2016 by karlos1983

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Stubborn ECM 

Not mild, not cold, but meh

It would be Chilly that's for sure

[The PIT]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Stubborn ECM 

Not mild, not cold, but meh

Yup another duff run from ECM. Warm uppers so may be freezing fog lingering during the day which counter act that due to the light winds in central to northern England.  Probably mild in Scotland with enough wind to prevent any fog or frost overnight.

[knocker]

20 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Note the dates, guys n gals. A five-day cool spell (with a fair amount of wintry precipitation around) all beforehand and most probably the start of another colder interlude afterwards, as hinted at by the 2nd chart above. I must admit the first chart covering the period 22nd to the 27th has the warmth (for coldies like me) a bit too close by for my liking.

This has been the case for a number of runs gtltw which is why the orientation of the upper trough is critical giving the division between the cold and warm air.with the WAA just to the east of the UK and maybe just over.

Edited November 17, 2016 by knocker

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Stubborn ECM 

Not mild, not cold, but a bit meh..

prefer that chart to similar timed GFS, this looks vile, wind and rain, ECM at least looks dry even if a dirty high

[karlos1983]

Nick give us back our Russian high 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Stubborn ECM 

Not mild, not cold, but a bit meh..

 

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Stubborn ECM 

Not mild, not cold, but a bit meh..

Frost and fog at night which would help to lower the soil temperatures and make it easier for snow to settle when the opportunity knocks..

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

prefer that chart to similar timed GFS, this looks vile, wind and rain, ECM at least looks dry even if a dirty high

The most important thing surely is which one is likely to retrogress the high!

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The most important thing surely is which one is likely to retrogress the high!

Exactly, I'll take the gfs thanks.

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Nick give us back our Russian high 

Why? lol That will never get close enough to deliver anything and is just piling mild air into Europe as its poorly orientated. Keep the faith the ECM at 216hrs isn't that far from the GFS in terms of overall pattern.

[gottolovethisweather]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

This has been the case for a number of runs gtltw which is why the orientation of the upper trough is critical giving the division between the cold and warm air.with the WAA just to the east of the UK.

 

 

Oh yes, I agree. I've been watching things regularly myself. I've referred it in my posts from previously, pretty much because you've also shown charts with the WAA around and about in the mid-range. I just didn't want the less well initiated in here thinking we were going to be in the middle of a heatwave before the cold had even descended. Out of interest, Knocker, where do you think the start of FI sits right now, (would you suggest somewhere around D5) ?

Edited November 17, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Exactly, I'll take the gfs thanks.

The ECM 240 isn't too bad but it looks like its full of hazard spoilers, next few ECM runs important but more so EPS suites.